Arctic Air On The Move

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

High pressure parked over the Ohio Valley is steering in cold dry weather from Canada. Plenty of Sunshine today with highs in the Upper 20’s and Lwr 30’s. An Arctic front pushes through tonight and the real cold air gets on the move. Arctic air will settle in after midnight with clear skies and calm winds. Lows will drop below zero in interior valleys while hover near 10 degrees at the coast.

A frigid start Monday will only moderate slightly by afternoon with highs only able to climb into the teens and Lwr 20’s with sunny skies. Canadian air with low sun angle reflecting off the snow is not the best ingredients for a warm up.

But a shift in the wind can make a dramatic difference! As the high pulls off the coast, winds will start to shift to the ESE wind direction. This will start to bring warmer air in off the water by Tuesday…  Just in time for our next storm system!

A trough in place up the eastern seaboard will steer in warming SW winds aloft and direct moisture up the coast towards New England. Warm air will over ride the cold air down at the ground. It is a perfect set up for a wintry mix to form. We will likely see quick burst of snow in southern New England during Tuesday morning with plenty of cold air around in the low levels of the atmosphere. As easterly winds shift in…these will provide a warming influence to the boundary layer ad allow a change over to rain at the coast as early as 11 AM.

The cold will hold on longer in the valleys and NW hills. There is the potential for a few inches of snow before a transition to sleet and freezing rain by the midday and afternoon. These icy conditions could last for a few hours before the warmth takes over in all levels and we change over completely to rain in all areas by night. 

Winter weather advisories may be needed in places like the Berkshires and Monadnocks, who may see 3-4″ of snow, then Ice before a change to rain. Worcester Hills will likely see 1-3 before a change to ice then rain. Northern New England will hold on to the cold the longest and has the best chance of seeing the most snow…especially Vermont and New Hampshire… Snow will be changing to an icy mix here and could make for some pretty treacherous driving Tuesday afternoon and night….but even here a change over to rain at night as mild air will pump temps to near 40 degrees by night.

Lingering showers with areas of dense fog Wednesday morning with drier weather moving in by afternoon. Very Mild to start with falling temps late in the day as cooler dry weather will move back in to end the week…but there are questions the farther out you look.

Friday’s storm appears up for grabs right now. The GFS has a storm Friday, while the Canadian and Euro slow everything down and have a first wave missing south and a stronger more organized low gathering steam and heading up the coast from Sunday. Favoring this for now…Very low confidence on how this will all shake out this far out…Whenever that storm finally does push through, much colder air will follow in behind it to drop our temps into the teens. 

So  Needless to say we are tracking two storms…both will have considerable moisture and Ptype issues to deal with. As the NAO becomes less negative, and the blocking pattern begins breaking down…these ptype issue storms are becoming frequent as warmer air can be drawn in. This could be the case for the next few storms…until the next time the NAO decides to go back in the tank….in February?  This could be one of those winters which last well into spring. Unlike last winter which was mostly over by February. This one looks like it has plenty of more life to it.

  • JimmyJames

    Snowfall I am giving a 1 for the next storm system right now since the totals don’t look to go past 4 inches anywhere.
    The interior I am paying close attention to because there could be some icing issues before a change to plain rain. I don’t expect anythinlg like December 2008 though but anytime you are dealing with ice that causes problems.

  • WeatherWizard

    Thanks Joe.

  • bigfoot

    anyone know total snow for medford on the last storm? Thanks!

  • leo

    12z GFS lost the storm completely for next Friday. No meaningful snow for a while .

  • philip

    Jimmy, it may be time to get out your Ice Inex Scale for this next storm as well…and for future storms more often according to Joe.

    • philip

      that should be Ice “Index” Scale.

      • JimmyJames

        Phillip it may indeed be time for the Ice Index so now it looks like we are getting into the pattern that Henry Margusity was predicting for us back in the fall of a lot mix events for us.
        I am not surprised the 12z GFS lost the storm for Friday and as I said yesterday there is POTENTIAL late week and lets leave it at that.

  • Ronnie t 67

    Hi Mr Joyce, now that your calling for a snowy march what find of storms do you expect,i know barry said that there will be no more blockbusters,are you buying that? have a nice day and enjoy the game joe.

  • Kent

    Hi JImmy THanks for the info,it fun to stay on top of things with you,do you agree with barry that there wont be anymore blockbuster storms this year? and how can he be sure of that?

  • Michael

    My winter outlook ithat I told friends was for the temps to be slightly above normal and with a good number of mix/change over storms. So far that has not happened but I think that changes starting this week.

    With all the snow on the ground and some real cold air moving in for tonight and tomorrow I feel the stage is set for Tuesday.

    The Cape and south shore sees a couple inches of snow then rain. Areas north of the Mass Pike I do feel with have a real problem with icing.

  • Kent

    Michael are you calling for a parlyzing ice event north of the pike?

    • JimmyJames

      Kent I would not go as far as saying we are not going to have another blockbuster this winter. I think that was a bold statement to make considering we have the rest of January, February, and March to go through. As I alwas say when you have a low on the east coast it needs to be watched because if it tracks to the benchmark aka sweet spot you could get a big dumping of snow.

  • KENT

    jimmy did both the past two blizzards hit that sweet spot?

  • Mazza

    the 12Z GFS run was bad im throwing that one in the trash

  • philip

    I predicted earlier in my Winter Outlook that we would see more ice storms and that the city of Boston would see its first in many years. If Joe’s analysis is correct, that could very well happen. We will see.

  • philip

    KENT…I believe that the post-Christmas storm did come near the “sweet spot” benchmark but the second tracked over Martha’s Vineyard, further westward than expected which resulted in more mixing for the South Shore areas.

    • philip

      …not to mention a close call for Boston which resulted in temps a few degrees above freezing and much ‘wetter” snow.

    • JimmyJames

      Philip I believe your right about both of the big storms we have had this winter.

  • southshoretom

    one time only……………weather balloons released from Foxboro this morning…….resulting model runs predict :

    NAM : Pats 41-14

    GFS : Jets 20-14

    • Topkatt88

      You forgot about this one..

      NOGAPS: Football game? Huh?

      • southshoretom

        LOL !!

  • GoPats

    Yikes! An icing event maybe on Tuesday! How many days without power will I have to go through again?!

  • JimmyJames

    GoPats as I said earlier I don’t see a repeat of December 2008 for the interior but there will some icing issues but it eventually goes to plain rain but it is going to take a while.
    As for the football game Pats 38 Jets 10 and if the Pats don’t win I will be SURPRISED like I would if this Tuesday storm system turned out to be a snowstorm!

  • shotime

    My recommendation to anyone who does not have a good amount of ice melt on hand might want to consider purchasing some before Thursday’s tempature drop! That is if you can find a store that has any left!!!

  • Dr D David SHultz 1984

    no question there may be a breif transition to grauepl tuesday afternoon, stay safe out there. I’ve reduced my Graupel Advisory to a 5. If you recall it was a7 earlier this week

  • Kent

    For all you gamblers out there do you think today weather will have any effect on the total points for the game?

  • Longshot

    Bears looking tough right now. Playing in their type of weather.

    Does anyone remember where& when Barry said no more blockbusters this year?

    • JimmyJames

      Longshot I believe someone said Friday at noon he said that. As I said earlier I think that was a bold statement to make considering we have the rest of January, February, and March to get through.
      Your right the Bears are looking tough right now as the snow falls over Soldier Field.

      • Longshot

        Just can’t see him making that comment. Sounds unlikely.

  • Kent

    topklatt what do you think about the probability of more big storms this winter?

  • philip

    Longshot, my bet is Barry did not say anything like that. I can’t picture him announcing something like that at this point in the season…in which we still have a loooong way to go.

  • kent

    phllip barry said this on air at the end of the last blizzard go back and watch the footage before you acuse someone of lying

  • kent

    people need to watch and read the blogs and forecasts,all the info is seems many of you are not reading closley or is causing alot of friction between bloggers and mets

    • jack

      Couldn’t agree more!!!

    • ed

      kent, i thought you were here just to get a date.

  • Mazza
    • JimmyJames

      Mazza is that the 12zEuro for the Tuesday storm or the late week storm?

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