We’ve been painstakingly tracking this Norlun trough for days now it seems and it is finally moving through this morning. What a night is SW Connecticut I-95, I-84, the Merritt parkway at a standstill during the evening rush as 12-16″ of snow fell from Bridgeport to New Haven! Hundreds of motorists stranded and delayed.  At times snow falling at 2-3″ an hour…while in New York City…only a few inches in the Park. The extremes of  the haves and the have nots of Norlun trough on full display last night.

It has been hard to communicate this forecast. I know a lot of people were waking up wondering where is the snow? The shift came midday yesterday when we realized we were not dealing with two troughs…but actually one trough and a deepening ocean storm off the coast. This changed the timing and placement of everything…if you have not been closely paying attention to the weather…you may be wondering what is going on? 

Round one( the Norlun Trough) is moving through Metrowest in a weakened state this morning. It is still providing moderate bursts of snowfall, reducing visibility down to mile at times…and enough for a general coating to 1″ of snow. Roads are mostly wet on main well treated roads…but a slushy accumulation is gathering in spots. Also cold temps are stuck in the 20’s. Any sort of light snow or moisture is freezing making for areas of black ice on any untreated roadways. Use caution this morning! This band of snow will continue to push north through Boston then up into Essex county to Cape Ann…where the band will weaken and fizzle as it loses it’s upper level support and lift. Still scattered snow showers and flurries will resume…especially north of the pike into the afternoon. There may even be a few breaks of sun! The Cape is sitting pretty in the sunshine. Drier air will try to penetrate inland during an afternoon lull…temps climb to near 40 in spots.

The trough may weaken…but it is going nowhere. In fact it will play a role in tonight’s weather. We turn our attention to round 2 coming out of the mid-atlantic. There is a huge upper low (cool pool of air aloft) sitting back towards Pennsylvania. This is steering more energy off the coast today which will turn into a deepening storm south of New England tonight. It will approach the benchmark and then quickly accelerate east  by sunrise tomorrow.

I expect the snow to fill in quickly tonight and become heavier later tonight through the overnight hours tomorrow. The heaviest snow will be south of Boston. Judging by the track of the 850mb low the heaviest snow should track across Southeast MA. This is where the National Weather service has issued a winter weather advisory.  The Energy off the coast will help to re-ignite the Norlun trough which will be stalled over southern New England…this could help to enhance surface convergence and produce some banding of snowfall right at the coast. Still even at this point of the forecast…we will still have to keep a close eye on the track of the low…just a few miles to the east or west could have major impacts on overall  snow totals. The best chance of substantial snow will be from New Bedford to Plymouth to the Cape and the Islands. The Cape and Islands could exceed over 6″ in spots…The Vineyard, Nantucket, Buzzards Bay and Outer Cape have the best chance. Boston snowfall will be lighter a general 2-3″, with amounts dropping off North and west to a coating-2″…Some areas will get zilch.

The Upper low will slide south of New England and drag in cooler drier air behind it with gusty NW winds for Sunday which will feature a thinning cloud cover and partly sunny skies with temps in the Lwr mid-30’s. Fair weather to start the week…..

So this quick one-two…nothing we can not handle…But is there a knockout waiting in the wings? I can tell you the atmosphere is loaded! Energy will continue to spill in from the Northwest US to reinforce a trough in the Northeast. The sub tropical jet will continue to steer in moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf. If this will all come together remains the big question.

Our next chance comes Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will be a quick moving storm…but have a more “classic” winter look. A low will come out of the Gulf and track up the east coast. Energy from the Northern stream will link up with this moisture and form a deepening storm south of New England. This should become a Nor’easter for us will the potential for significant snow accumulation…but we wait on that for now. Most guidance is calling for this storm to hit…but all vary on the track and amount of snow possible. This has the potential to be a major storm from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. Something to watch in the coming days.

The cold from NW Canada will continue the press into the Continental US…so by the time we get to the 20th…we could be in the heart of the coldest air we will likely see this winter.

Comments (273)
  1. BaileyMan says:

    Good Morning all! I trust you are all well and survived the blizzard like conditions last night and this am? just kidding of course. Anyway, lets all just relax and remember this is just a weather blog where we all should have some fun reading, hoping and observing the varied progs from mets and fellow bloggers. No person will ever be 100 percent predicting future weather scenerios but, its fun trying to anway! Also, if anyone took me too seriously in stating that prior to this last snow event i was on a winning streak?! oh well? im sorry …but i was doing it tongue and cheek and just having fun fantazing about being 4 for 4 because in the end, i knew it was not going to continue!!!! lol <<< and that is a FACT! Having said that, i do have some faith that my experience, and degree with the enigmatic forces of meteorology and forecasting would put me over the 50/50 mark …and in fact closer to over 75% maybe?! lol Most important lets all remember..this is just a blog for free thought so YES even the haters have a RIGHT to attack us for being wrong!! as long as they are not too offensive and personal i guess?! ..more in a few..on the next to snow threats..! later..

  2. manowx says:

    global warming is still with us

  3. manowx says:

    20s for highs big deal!

  4. Joshua Alexander says:

    Snowing at a good clip now in Southern NH..in Amherst, just west of Nashua….

    1/2 ” on the ground with moderate snows and 3/4 mile visibility…

  5. Scott says:

    thanks joe for the detailed update, it will be interesting to see where that trough will stall, becuase it could get going again once the new moisture comes in, causing unexpected snowfall for areas, say northeastern mass?
    lets see what the 12z GFS says.

  6. leo says:

    12z gfs and12z nam areboth better than their previos runs. Southcoast of mass gets alot of snow

  7. leo says:

    Boston does a little better also!

  8. Joshua Alexander says:

    Heavy Snow now in Southern NH, with 1/2 mile visibility….

  9. Hadi says:

    Bailyman you might not to be far off on totals down near the cape and south shore:)). Who knows some areas closervto Boston might a get a surprise.

    Joe great update as always, but don’t put a chance of a major storm you might get heat for it:)) jk.

  10. Weatherman1212 says:

    I live on Cape Cod, how much snow will I get by tomorrow afternoon?

  11. BaileyMan says:

    Hey Joe! always great to hear from you and i agree with just about everything you just wrote! In fact, i bet the national weather office will issue a winter storm watch and/or warning for southeast mass and cape and islands for tonight! And yes if? im wrong the blog critics can consider me fair game?! lol but i think i will be Right!! over 6 in is possible in far southeast areas of mass tonight! as for 495 south and east to about Taunton 2 to close to 5 inches is my call outside worcester north and west a coating to 2 inch max! we shall see??
    As for tuesday night and Wednesday looks more and more like this one will not be as tough a forecast!! In fact, i agree with you joe that it has all the makings of a Classic Major Nor’Easter!! with even the rain/snow line flirting with the cape and heavy snow north and west of their especially 128 north and west with greater snow to rain ratios! Absent a STRONG high pressure to the north it looks fairly progressive so the entire event should be in the ball park of 18 to 24 hours max! But, alot of precip may be squeezed out of it so wouldnt be surprised if MANY areas get over a foot from that storm!! After that, cold and windy is the word!! so snow sticks around for a bit..but see a brief Jan thaw possible sometime after the 19th!? that can change..just a thought. So im making a gutsy call but, …i think the next storm tues night and wednesday is about as certain as any snow threat this year! and i expect the models to be more consistent with calling that one! Also, Joe? YOU are quickly proving to be one of the best technically proficient mets around! And you seem like a pretty ok guy too! just saying! have a great day all! and if im wrong about any of this bloggers?? IM FAIR GAME!! LOL peace

  12. leo says:

    NWS notes that latest NAM is a bit more robust with low level inflow and qpf amouts.Snowfall amts might have to be adjusted up if trends continue.

  13. Scott says:

    still snowing moderately on the northshore, a little more than a half inch

  14. philip says:

    One of the newscasters on the CBS Early Show this morning mentioned the “B” word for us next week. We will see.

  15. Hadi says:

    I guess we have to see where the banding will set up tonight that could cause havoc with snow totals.

  16. leo says:

    Should be a fun night! Im 30 miles SSE of Boston so I should see some pretty good snows for a while tonight!

  17. Scott says:

    seems the GFS is having a hard time with the next storm, the 12z run was was awful

  18. Jay_Jay says:

    Please, please, please return the local doppler WBZ radar from Worcester to the website; as well as the local weather station Weatherbug sites.

    Thank you.

  19. BaileyMan says:

    By the way, just a point of thought based on analysis ..the noon GFS is way off !! its intitialization seems in error based on current synoptic and upper air real time dynamics and placement! so although it looks discouraging for snow! throw it out at the moment! i think its close to garbage..at least that run!

    1. Scott says:

      yea i threw it out aswell, lets see what the other 12z runs say.

  20. Scott says:

    hmm, seems like the band on the northshore is not making much progress north :)

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      It’s weakening. When it came through here it produced only about 0.1 inch of snow.

  21. BaileyMan says:

    Case in point about the 12z GFS run being wrong?!!! look at current gfs at 0 hours intial placement of surface then look at this actual real time synoptic analysis! low tucked closer to shore so trajectory and path of low is not correct even with tonights low nevermind tomorrow! lol out for day..later..

  22. Topkatt88 says:

    Yeah the remains of the Norlun were FIERCE! I think my visibility dropped all the way down to … TWO MILES in light snow! ;-)

    I completely blew it on part 1 of this 2-part event. Sorry. :-) At least I was only off by an inch since the lower limit of my range for the first part of it was 1 inch. Small consolation. :-)

  23. smack says:

    I was thinking about this time of the year when temps are usually the coldest and wondering where all the arctic air has been so far. Is it locked way up in Canada? I don’t think even the midwest has been that cold so far. Anyone have an answer? Despite the lack of cold air we are still managing to get snowfall. OK by me, I don’t need the high fuel bills!

  24. Old Salty says:

    Take a look at this satellite lloop. Appear toe m that i may track closer to cast. Am I all wet?


  25. Scott says:

    the radar is a bit deceiving, its snowing quite heavily in Marblehead, for the time being.

  26. Mikey says:

    Topkatt? u agree with baleyman about the latest gfs and next storm threat? ii hope thats the one that finally hits us good!

  27. retrac says:

    that’s quite a blob off the NJ coast. Looks like it’s tracking nearly due north

  28. Mikey says:

    ok since topkatt didnt answer maybe away? how about anyone else about what baleyman said? joe joyce? or anyone? is he right? i want a big storm!

  29. Justin says:

    From now on, I’m doing my own weather predictions, by looking aout the window. That way I know that I’m accurate. BLOWN OUT OF PROPORTION AS USUAL. Good job guys!

  30. rainshine says:

    Old Salty – looked at your satellite loop. From what I can see – it does seem to be tracking closer to the coast.

    Topkatt88 – from the latest reports, it doesn’t look good for the south coast tonight. I have a friend that has to drive from Walpole to New Bedford around 7 tomorrow morning. Any idea how the weather might be – should she plan on driving?

  31. leo says:

    I noticed it also retrac, lts heading this way! Check out new york city radar on accu weathers site. Its a sestetive but pretty accurate radar

  32. leo says:

    Starting time for snow Im seeing around 4 or 5 oclock on the south cooast a nd a couple hrs later for Boston. Anybody else have any ideas on starting times for the snow?

  33. Uncover says:

    Topkatt…any thoughts on the potential of tonights low tracking closer to us? Any conditions you see that might support that?

  34. Mikey says:

    fine dont answer my questions i gues? geesh! i just want to know if that dude baleyman was right or full of it!?

  35. Spaniel says:

    One two punch of a let down after a sugar coating last night tonight will be a dud and I am already hearing the mid week LOW could track close enough to change the snow to rain as far north as SNE.

    1. Hadi says:

      Who is the source?

  36. TomFromActon says:

    mikey i am not a met by any means but baileyman has been really good this winter and he was i met if i recall what he or others have said about him? but joe joyce kinda said the same thing as baileyman and if topkatt agrees he probably is right about the gfs latest run and tonight and tuesday/wed storm threat. but again, wait to see what others on here say if u want

  37. Hadi says:

    Miley the set up is good for a potential storm. Joe dud a nice job explaining it in his blog.

  38. Mikey says:

    Spaniel .. who said that?

  39. kent says:

    from boston west just a dusting its a south shore event

  40. Hadi says:

    I saw someone post something on accuweather blog about an ETA model that eluded to a coastal hugged, but from what I know the ETA is useless in the long range.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      It’s funny that they still refer to it as the ETA.

  41. Steve44 says:

    Baileyman and Topkatt are both horrible and always wrong ! who cares what they say!!!

  42. Steve44 says:

    Topkatt88 i mean the real one i guess and they probably delete this becuase i have an opinion anyway, right????????????

    1. Hadi says:

      No they will not, but you don’t make any sense

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        That’s just that sorenson3 kid from last year. Don’t worry about it. :-)
        I never forget a writing style. That’s why I pick out every alterego that “landi” uses too.

    2. Topkatt88 says:

      Just remember though.
      44 is only half of 88. ;-)

  43. Spaniel says:

    Just saw a post from JB on accuweather. Said 6-12 tonight on the Cape 3-6 PVD to BOS for tonight and both areas lto change to rain Wednesday with the bigger snows NYC area Phily. As usual. Joe L started this rain into SNE yesterday and he is very good at hitting the rain snow line from days out. So don’t be jumping up and down thinking we are in the sweet spot because I predict we are not.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Ok. I won’t jump up and down. :-)

    2. Scott says:

      he said parts of the mid atlantic, and the southernmost of New England, meaning the cape and islands. even with that said, still too far out to depict a rain/snow line.
      lets get through this storm first before arguing about the next one

  44. Scott says:

    still snowing steadily in marblehead, although temp has gone up a bit

  45. Hadi says:

    Before anyone talks about rain snow line we have to get the storm up here in the first place.

  46. James says:

    Spaniel that is crazy stuff! JB stands for Just Bull !!! i think. the only way we get over 12 inches of anything this week is if the birds start falling out of the sky here too and start piling up to over 12 inches! NOT that i wish any birds perish? im just sayin

  47. TomFromActon says:

    For you bloggers who just keep on hating? i got news for you Topkatt88 and Haterain and Baileyman are all top notch!!! so just goooooooooooooooo away!!! Enough already! at least they admit when they mess up ..which by the way, is not very often!! Better to mess up then to be messed up!!!!!! ha ha ha ha ha!

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Don’t worry TommyBoy!
      I don’t know about the others, but I don’t take it personally anymore because:
      1) My 20+ year career speaks for itself and I must have done OK there if they never got rid of me…lol.
      2) I do this blog for fun as well as actually caring about what I write here.
      3) My 11 year old son loves me no matter how bad my forecast is. :-)

      1. burbankmania says:

        Your “20+ year career” doing what? Posting on this anonymous blog along with a group of juvenile fools who can’t spell and “root for snow” like a group of little kids? I hope your day job fares better than your ability to predict the weather, which recently has sucked. Hey, are we going to get the 1978 blizzard today? lol

  48. Hadi says:

    For tonights event the afternoon NAM will be very telling.

  49. Steve-O says:

    not sure why the focus is on the midweek storm potential when we have something to deal with tonight. NWS in Taunton saying that snow totals may have to be raised a bit in extreme SE Mass tonight based on the 12Z NAM run. They’re already forecasting 4-6″ for this area.

  50. Peter5 says:

    This is one entertaining blog!! I LOVE IT! and im not really that much of a weather nut! but it is entertaining! just keep it real people and not too over the top! some dam good forecasters on here too!! good afternoon!

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I’m all about keeping it real. What kind of real? That’s up to the rest of you to decide… ;-)

    2. burbankmania says:

      Yeah, some REALLY great forecasters here. Who this week told us that the blizzard of 1978 was coming and deflected any notion it wouldn’t happen from people who actually seem like they know something about the weather. Didn’t they also tell the on-air mets to raise the alarm about the impending “storm” Friday? Riiiiiggghtt…..

      Don’t mix your enthusiasm for storms with the ability to forecast weather. The percentages on this blog aren’t close to being equal.

      1. Uncover says:

        I believe it was the NWS that just said the setup was analogous to that of 78. I never saw anyone, including the NWS say we would have a blizzard like that

      2. S-mar says:

        If you don’t like what is being said on the blog then get off it bbm.

  51. retrac says:

    that swirl in central PA appears to be pulling the precip back west on radar or are my eyes wishcasting?

    this is gonna be close even for central mass.

    1. Cat966G says:

      Was thinking the same thing when i looked at the radar a few minutes ago.

  52. Scott says:

    still have to watch what happens to that trough when the moisture hits, will it light up and produce snow for places Boston-north? surprises may be found tonight.

  53. leo says:

    trough on north shore may get a bit stronger in the next hr or two!

  54. Scott says:

    looks like spokes of energy are firing up in parts of Mass, just east of Boston.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I think that trough will be mostly dead by then. With the new low taking over to the southeast, the connection between storms will no longer be “needed” by the atmosphere.

  55. Topkatt88 says:

    Mikey… I did answer but the blog ate it I guess. I think the GFS is a bit fast and a bit south with that storm. I’m between the UKMET & Euro right now.

    Uncover… At the moment, I don’t see it any closer. And given how this 1st part went, I’m not too excited about the 2nd part, though it still holds a bit more potential.

    rainshine… I think it should be fine to drive in the morning, even there. Whatever falls should be pretty much done and since this is not a blockbuster with tons of wind it won’t take long for any work on the roads to be done.

    1. rainshine says:

      Topkatt88 – thanks!

    2. mark says:

      awfully high opinion of yourself

  56. retrac says:

    I can’t wait to see if that band on the north shore expands back sw to lowell, worcester, hartford as the blob comes north. could be the early sign of a bigger band setting up.

    I need to go find something to do for a couple hours. I feel like a ten year old wondering when the cupcakes will be done.

  57. Scott says:

    check out the 12z GEM, looks like all of eastern mass does good from the second feature

  58. leo says:

    Come on Topkatt get excited about tonight! There is some pretty good potential here we just need it to happen!

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I’m very quiety excited about what MAY happen.
      Tonight I’m going to be at the top of a hill with a very fast sled…waiting. :-P

      1. Scott says:

        lol, this storm has a mind of its own, who knows what will happen.

      2. coach23 says:

        Better take a lot of coffee. Gonna be a long night of waiting.

  59. Spaniel says:

    James I agree with u on the Just Bull but Joe Lundberg is a better MET than JB in my opinion. He is usually very good at sniffing these things out from days out. So for now while I will see how tonights storm plays out I will go with the idea that Wednesday the challeng will be where the rain/snow line sets up and it is probably not restricted to Cape Cod only. That is all I have to say about it for now. Have a good afternoon everyone.

  60. leo says:

    Im going to be at the bottom of the hill with my snow shoes on trudging through the deep deep snows.! Then Manowx and I are going to drink coconut juice from the palm tree in my backyard.

  61. Scott says:

    that band east of Boston is growing

  62. Lawrencewx says:

    Why is it so difficult to get some snow in the Merrimack Valley this winter?! LoL
    Maybe we will have a better shot on Wednesday?!
    Enjoy your “Private Snowstorm” on the Cape tonight!!

  63. kent says:

    that means we wont get anything LOL if it projects it this far out we all know what happens

  64. Topkatt88 says:

    burbankmania… Thanks for your kind and well thought-out comments. :-)
    If you really care, I’ve worked in the private sector as an agricultural forecaster since 1990. I post here because I’ve known Barry since the mid 1980s.

  65. Mazza says:

    ya im loving the EURO

  66. TOMMYdpw says:


  67. jack says:


  68. Scott says:

    For that fool who like said, bailey man was always wrong? look at the Euro!!! and he bailey also said, like tonights storm would be upgraded to winterstorm watch or somethin? didnt he not? and more snow then thought he nailed that like 2 days ago fool! so stop hating cause u dont have no game! he said the gfs run was garbage too and he is also right on that topkatt88 even said that! some of you make fools of yourself i hope u kno? and how much snow does the euro give us for wednesday by the way??

  69. Fall River John says:

    NWS is now referring to widespread moderate to heavy snow in the updated aviation forecast in which they are including PVD. Think we might see an upgrade to WSS and possible an expansion of the WWA.

  70. Scott says:

    i meant you said the GFS was garbage too topkatt88 so im saying i respect you on your skills too! i love to read you and baileymans blogs you guys rule! give in you the daps!

  71. haterain says:

    LawrenceWX I am with you nothing in Pelham, NH. Joshua I am glad you got to see some in Amherst. It looks like nothing tonight in Merrimack Valley either. Next Wednesday well you know how it has gone so far up here…

  72. TomFromActon says:

    TO all the haters of the blog mets who have been criticized go back and read some of their old blogs and forecasts you will see who has been pretty accurate. so back up what you throw around at least!!

  73. lousquirrel says:

    Any snow for Woburn tonight?

  74. Mike44 says:

    even topkatt said baileyman has no clue! read his blogs plus topkatt said he has to admit he is usually wrong himself! so my point is, they have no clue and all the bloggers on here know both of them are horrible!

  75. TomFromActon says:

    Mike 44? earlier steve44? same guy!!!!!!!!!!! lol hey buddy? are you off the meds or did the last dose end a few days ago? time for a new prescription!! haa keep on typing guy…you make ahhh? no sense!! lmao!

  76. Scott says:

    The new GEM not as robust for wednesdays storm as earlier run but its just 1 run but new EURO and Nams placement of wednesday storm at 84 hours looks really promising! so my guess is that storm is a Go!!!!

  77. TomFromActon says:

    how much snow does it give us Scott?

    1. Scott says:

      still trying to find how much this storm will give us :)
      but next week’s event looks more widespread in terms of snowfall amounts.

    2. Hadi says:

      Euro puts .99 qpf for Boston.

      1. coastal says:

        Hadi, for tonight?

  78. coach23 says:

    One two punch???? Still waiting on one!

  79. leo says:

    mostly sunny skies on south shore. I dont like mostly sunny skies when a storm isnt that far away! Hop that isnt saying something.Clouds should be lowering and thickening right now.

    1. Scott says:

      they will fill back in, but you know the saying…calm before the storm.

  80. James says:

    at 84 hours out from tuesday night and wednesdays storm the models are already doing their shift and dance back and fourth on the storms potential track! the models which earlier said it would go further east are now saying further west..and the ones that said further west are saying further east! is consistency too much to ask for????????????????????????????????????????????????????? oy vey! but at least they all say some snow!!!

  81. James says:

    What the ???? how can it be oh sorry its the nature of models right? at 84 hours out from tuesday night and wednesdays storm the models are already doing their shift and dance back and fourth on the storms potential track! the models which earlier said it would go further east are now saying further west..and the ones that said further west are saying further east! is consistency too much to ask for????????????????????????????????????????????????????? oy vey! but at least they all say some snow!!!

  82. Fall River John says:

    I was thinking the same thing!! Sunny here in FR too! According to radar snow is overspreading Block Island??

  83. Scott2 says:

    ah that would be about 10 in is all a good amount but not burying us!! so some of you are over hyping it a tad lol

    1. Scott says:

      its a weather blog, not a television or radio station…
      and i think that QPF is a little underdone, still a few days to sort these things out.

    2. Hadi says:

      Depends on temps for snow ratios but yes .99 is around 10 inches.

  84. wingplow21 says:

    When should i expect the snow to begin in the foxboro area. I do snow removal so i need to get all my employees ready to go.

  85. Hadi says:

    Wingplow I would say around 6 pm it should start, you can look at the radar to see the progression of the snow to give an exact time. The WWA starts at 7 pm so give or take

  86. Dave H says:

    Indeed the 12Z Euro shows a potent storm for Wednesday, passing almost over Nantucket, but progressive one.

  87. leo says:

    South of Long Island radar is showing mod bands of snow moving off to the south east while lighter bands are moving to the northeast,not sure why.

  88. Scott says:

    the low hasnt reached the ocean waters yet, when that happens, the precip will expand and get heavier, then we will be able to track it’s movement.

  89. leo says:

    wheres the low right now Scott?

  90. southshoretom says:

    I’m just nowcasting the regional radar…but, doesn’t it look like the batch of precip south of New England is moving a lot more east than north ?

  91. Scott says:

    off the Delaware coast, will continue to strengthen.

  92. leo says:

    Yes SStom, I am not liking what I am seeing right now. There is a low pressure way offshore of virginia, further off than models were showing. I dont like this setup right now. hope im wrong!

  93. Scott says:

    18z NAM is different

  94. Kathy says:

    wow…how sick are people shooting a female congress women and others at a store in arizona? people need to calm down its ok to disagree we are all in this together! too many sickos in this world! needs to stop!
    as for the storm, it will snow just let it play out! whatever happens or will happen none of us can control! so lets just relax and enjoy the moments of weather we all have to experience!

  95. leo says:

    18z nam not good! Just a quick batch of steady snow moving through the area. Winter Storm warnings will not go up after that run! Looks like the radar trends are holding true to the 18z nam. Storm is pulling heavy precip off to the right a dout to sea!

  96. southshoretom says:

    test post

  97. Hadi says:

    It’s getting close to put this one to bed for most us and move on to next weeks threat. NAM does not paint a good picture, but keep in mind it’s an 18Z run.

    1. Scott says:

      and the NAM has had lots of problems with this storm, still havnt seen any solid consistency.
      let the storm grow and then see what happens in a little while, still got to watch and see what happens to that trough thats in place.

  98. Scott says:

    thats a good radar/satellite to track the storm. seems the moisture is moving more to the north now.

  99. Spaniel says:

    I think the NAM shows 2-5 inches in the RI area.

  100. leo says:

    dry air in eastern mass is stopping any progression of precip to the south.

    1. Fall River John says:

      is it possible for that to only be a temporary situation??

  101. coastal says:

    latest radar shows bands of moisture developing off eastern mass coastline

    1. Scott says:

      i like the look of that :) hope it can get more organized.

      1. coastal says:

        it is look at it!

  102. coastal says:

    dry air? i have a temp of 33, dew is at 30 with humidity at 90%

  103. sse says:

    im still seeing a pretty good slug of moisture moving up the coast. Im not sure y everyones saying this isnt going to happen now?

  104. Scott says:

    either way, the clouds will fill back in, i think its just the fact that we are in between storms.

  105. leo says:

    Dry air at higher levels not at the surface. Yes it could be just temporary Fall river John. have you clouded over yet Fall river John? Also noticing snowshowers coming off the ocean again. Is norlun setting up again? I doubt it.

  106. Andre Dursin says:

    I’m at Snug Harbor RI (Point Judith pond), looking to the south clouds seem darker yet nothing is falling here yet. 29 degrees.

  107. Tony says:

    FYI – WWA issued for southern worc county eastward

  108. Scott says:

    leo, it would seem the trough is starting to light up again, or its just ocean effect snow showers. lets see what it does

  109. Scott says:

    WSW up for the cape and islands

  110. leo says:

    Winter Storm warnings have just been issued for South coastal areas with 4-8 inches expected down there. I like to see that!

  111. leo says:

    Im very inerested in that also! Should be fun to watch Scott. It seems you might be in the bullseye for the ocean effect event as it looks now.

  112. TomFromActon says:

    BaileyMan called that earlier!!! wow!! if it holds that guy was right yet again!

  113. Fall River John says:

    I’m going to keep my fingers crossed for all of you further north that you can join in the snow party….it ain’t over till it’s over!!

    1. Steve-O says:

      i live close to New Bedford…looks like we could get hit pretty good tonight John.

      1. Fall River John says:

        I think you are correct!!!

  114. Scott says:

    the snow bursts seem to be intensifying as they come closer to shore

  115. James says:

    Tom perhaps i will start paying more attention to what bailey says? but, lets first see if he is right? but if he goes 5 for 5 now? he has my vote for top met this season! but like its kinda early and stuff rememba that! was he a tv met or somethin?

    1. S-mar says:

      I like Baileyman but he did admit he was wrong on last night storm. So he can not go 5 for 5

  116. Steve-O says:

    I live 20 miles west of the Cape Cod Canal. Nice to see the Winter Weather Advisories upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings for this area.

  117. Scott says:

    well, they are rain showers now, which will become snow as it reaches the shore. hope they can stir things up for places north of the advisories.

  118. James says:

    Topkatt88 has been best over 3 years since i have observed this blog. That guy bailman is just on a roll i suppose? but Topkatt88 if you are here? what tv met do you think is best and who on this blog do you think besides yourself is technically sound and good at tryin to get the weather forcast right around here in mass? just wondering what you think?

  119. leo says:

    Scott, looks like you will be reporting back soon with some nice bursts of snow

  120. MikeBrockton says:

    Daps to Bailyman!!! he so good he didnt even think he would end up rite this time! looks like he is now going up to 5 for 5 predicting storms going back to few days back when he called this storm! also radar show the storm or precipitation field looking to rotate faster at bottom area so it will likely curl towards us in south new england! bring on the snow yall!

  121. Scott says:

    more like a burst of sleet at the moment.. in Marblehead

  122. metking says:

    Apparently my post didn’t go thru, couple inches from the first system and a six inch ceiling on the wed event due to marginal temps on the plain and extreme progression (called that early in the game, ho hum)

  123. Lawrencewx says:

    Congrats BaileyMan!!
    WoW 5/5

  124. southshoretom says:

    I must admit to being surprised that the NWS put up some warnings, added a bit more area to their advisories and seemed to increase their snowfall totals a bit….I do hope they end up being correct.

  125. Sean says:

    what is everyone expecting for metro Boston tonight?

    1. metking says:

      2-3 inches sean

  126. Scott says:

    this is NAM at hour 84 for the next storm, it looks like a hit.

  127. leo says:

    winter storm warnings exteding north into just south of boston now,as the storm will make its closest pass just after midninght.

    1. southshoretom says:

      I’ll probably be wrong :) ……….. but I thought their advisories from earlier in the day had a better chance of verifying than these more current ones do.

  128. smitty says:

    baileyman is not 5 for 5 he said this would be a big storm today at least top88 said he missed this one, and he always admits when he misses a forecast and from reading here every day he doesnt miss them as many times as people say so, they are just being mean because nobody knows who they are in real life

    1. NickShrewsContractor says:

      Actually i have to disagree with you pal that blog guy baileyman did hit this storm almost exact if you go back and read his early posts or whatever its called? He is cool like toppkatt88 cause they both admit when they are wrong and baileyman said he was wrong early this morning even though he ends up right! so he kinda does go 5 out of 5 or whatsever it is. its snowing steady out here in shrewsbury ma too easy to get his 3 to 4 out here i thinks!

  129. leo says:

    that was not leo with that false report of winter storm warnings being extended north to just south of boston.

  130. Scott says:

    snowing in marblehead
    by the way, the 18z GFS had a much better look on the storm for next week.

    QPF’s, although i think they will be higher.

    1. coastal says:

      What are you basing higher qpf on for the midweek storm?

      1. Scott says:

        it will be loaded with moisture, and the storm will probably end up stronger than that, its only 1000mb when it hits us, the EURO was showing more like 985mb

  131. plow guy says:

    Wut will saugus get night it is snowing very hard right now

  132. Scott says:

    wow near whiteout in marblehead

    1. southshoretom says:

      interesting…..there are some strong echos moving westward towards the south shore as well.

  133. plow guy says:

    Same as saugus

  134. plow guy says:

    Any predictions for saugus tonight

    1. Scott says:

      right now, bands of snow are working their way off the water, not sure what that will lead to.

  135. Scott says:

    now just snow showery, varying in intensity. im seeing a larger batch of moisture of the coast working its way in, that could last longer than these small bands. i’ll keep an eye on it

  136. leo says:

    Dont think south coast will get 4-8 tonight!

  137. Andre Dursin says:

    Down here in Wakefield RI (south coast) nothing is falling. Is this thing falling apart or going out south?

  138. jack says:

    WTHF snowing like hell in Beverly??

  139. leo says:

    Andre, there was some dry air which knocked down the forward progession of snow. Last few radar images showed snow heading back north to your area.

    1. Scott says:

      it went from a normal radar to a high resolution radar, if you look at the key on the side, it changes.

      1. Andre Dursin says:

        Interesting that it stopped moving north some time ago, I’m right on the boundary where it’s supposed to start snowing here in coastal RI but none of it is reaching the ground.

        Methinks by the time this thing gets its act together it’s going to be well off shore.

  140. Andre Dursin says:

    Leo, thanks, I figured. But it looks again like it’s receding or doing something else…something clearly is going on!

  141. Ellen says:

    It’s been pretty wishy washy here in the Lowell area. No big deal, but still stayed in all day because of the drizzle and rain. Not a nice day at all.

  142. leo says:

    Not happening tonight! I just gave up on storm!

  143. leo says:

    I agree Andre we are running out of time!

  144. Scott says:

    Barry not convinced the warning areas will get past 6 or so

  145. Scott says:

    its good to know that we have a storm to watch for the next few days. and that one shows much more potential.

  146. kent says:

    barry says nothing more than a dusting most areas tonight

  147. Barry Burbank says:

    Hey Everyone… Ocean-effect snow showers are rolling onto the coastal plain… some of the snow is briefly heavy… is not directly related to the developing storm south of New England which looks to be a miss for much of the region… I’ll composing my blog right now… more later.

    1. jack says:

      OK, but I have 1.5″ of heavy snow now from the last hour, if I get another .5″ I need to go out. What will phase 2 bring for a total to bev??

  148. Sean says:

    Nice try but Barry writes in blue

    1. Scott says:

      i dont think he does, i’ve seen a number of posts from him that were in black.

  149. Scott says:

    snowing heavily in marblehead at the moment, probably wont last. i wonder if there will be more ocean effect activity later on.

  150. Storm says:

    Snowing lightly in East Wareham!!

  151. melzzz says:

    As I posted the other day, all of the advances in technology and no on cane predict witner weather correctly. I read on the front page of the WBZTV website about a 1, 2 punch of snow. What 1,2 punch? I live 20 miles North of Boston and we have barely seen a flake. In my opinion, it is the news departments that hype these things and often are irresponsible.

  152. Andre Dursin says:

    There has to be some seriously dry air firmly in place over us in southern RI…the visibility is good and still no sign of snow as I look towards Point Judith.

    Drying up!

  153. sse says:

    radar filling in nicely

  154. Andre Dursin says:

    I should mention the radar shows it over right now, but I can tell you as of 7:07 none of it is actually reaching the ground.

  155. lousquirrel says:

    They shold cancel the winter storm warning

  156. Storm says:

    Maybe they shoukd cancel Saturday too!!!

  157. Barry Burbank says:

    I expect that the Winter Storm Warning will be downgraded to at least a Winter Weather Advisory for the Cape and South Coast. Bulk of precip from storm is on its way out to sea… it has to blossom northward in a hurry or it’s a NO show! Ocean-effect bands are migrating west-southwestward and producing brief bursts of heavier snow… even rain outer Cape Ann & Cape Cod! More coming up in my blog.

  158. gabef says:

    Gonna be a bust on the Cape as well. Not doing anything here now and the moon is showing through the overcast.

  159. Ed Logiudice says:

    Another swing and a miss from Boston area meteoroligists. Now, time to move on to Tuesday night/Wednesday. Here’s the detailed forecast: it will either snow or it won’t. If it snows, we will get a lot of snow or not a lot of snow. I don’t know a job where this level of inaccuracy is tolerated (except maybe politics)….

  160. Andre Dursin says:

    Barry, I can tell you here in coastal RI (Wakefield RI) that even though the radar shows the leading edge of precip over us, none of it is hitting the ground and the visibility is the best it’s been in days.

    Looks like this one will be over and done.

  161. Euro Jones says:

    Euro shows about a foot in Boston Tuesday night/Wednesday.

  162. metking says:

    Thanks barry, couldn’t agree more, I look for no more than an inche across most of se mass now. Incredible we escape again. The more I review the midweek system the less promising it looks to me. In the event it takes a perfect track I still can’t see more than 8 and that would be slightly inland. Wednesday is nothing to hype folks esp due to the progressive dynamics in place.

    1. Hadi says:

      I guess a range of 8-12 inches is nothing to talk about so we should just move on in your book

  163. HOMER says:

    Cape Cod will get 4-6in….. Radar starting to blossom.

  164. Scott says:

    its fun to watch the bands coming off the water and interacting with the moisture from the south.

  165. Euro Jones says:

    HPC has ~8″-12″ for midweek event.

  166. jack says:

    I think all radars need to be re calibrated to the maps!

  167. Scott says:

    midweek storm will be a good one, just hope mixing doesnt play a big role.

    1. Euro Jones says:

      Scott, I’m thinking we’ll make out okay on the North Shore. Maybe not as lucky on the South Shore and the Cape.

  168. leo says:

    I dont think Cape will see even 4 inches. Heavy precip south of New England already moving away

  169. bbh says:

    so is tonights storm a dud is that just troublemakers starting fights?

  170. fred says:

    just look at the radar its a dusting for all and to all a good night

  171. leo says:

    Growing band of snow from Providence to Worcester, it actually just kind of exploded out of nowhere. I dont have a clue

  172. Scott says:

    actually looks like the radar is filling in, now have to wait for it to progress northeastward.

  173. RMB says:

    Snowing hard in RI now!!

  174. Andre Dursin says:

    This storm is DOA. Leo the bands are so light they’re not amounting to anything if they’re like what just went through here on the RI coast. It’s not even a dusting here.

  175. Pouchy Boy says:

    it is clear that the hype from wbz4 mets has gotten out of control ,it needs to be looked at from an above source.these storms have been nothing but dustings.and the mets should be removed from there posts imiedietly.this is gone too far

  176. Scott says:

    lol at all those people who think this event is over, it hasn’t even begun yet!

  177. Sean says:

    If you watch Barry’s weekend update on the website he thinks its mainly a bust

  178. HOMER says:

    Starting to snow lightly in Falmouth CC. Temp 33 Dp 31

  179. leo says:

    Im seeing signs that all this might turn into one big band of snow. That area to the west is almost heavy snow now and I think Eastern Mass might fill in soon.

  180. RMB says:

    THIS BLOG IS FILLED WITH SUCH NONSENSE FROM THESE FAKE PEOPLE WHO INSIST ON TURNING THIS INTO A BLOG OF HATE THAT IT IS NOT FUN ANYMORE.. ALL WE CAN DO IS KEEP REPORTING THEM BOYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. bust says:

      No one is stopping you from creating your own blog.

  181. RMB says:

    Also heavy Snow covering yhe ground, almost whiteout!!!!!!

  182. Storm says:

    Snowing steadily in Wareham and ground is coated !!! Game on!!!

  183. Scott says:

    that batch of moisture is taking its sweet time advancing to the northeast…it looks pretty intense too

  184. Dave311 says:

    WHITE OUT IN AUBURN MASS!!!!!!! already got another inch and it seems to be intesifying over us its not a dud yet guys

  185. IObob34plank says:

    steady light snow in worcester now about an inch in last 2 hours! bands of moderate snow from friends in area so the 3 in minimum in the range will be met im sure!

  186. JimmyJames says:

    Hey everyone….. I am sticking with my current thinking that I gave early this morning for the Snow Index. I am giving a 2 for the warning areas and a 1 for everywhere else. Mid week next week MIGHT be a different story so stay tuned because high values are POSSIBLE>

  187. markit5 says:

    well with all do respect to barry burbank his latest forecast for central massachusetts is a bust out here he said no more than an inch tonight? well i got news its already over an inch in last hour at my house and snowing moderate at least here so. time to reforecast

  188. Craig@Northeastweathereye.com says:

    Nothing against Barry…but I really don’t think this coastal is going anywhere to fast as he indicated at the 6pm update…and the precip is expanded north and northeast…We have steady light snow here in Hull with a coating on the ground and roadways…tricky situation I gotta add…

  189. HOMER says:

    Ground covered in Falmouth…

  190. Scott says:

    us on the northshore are being left out at the moment…

  191. leo says:

    The sky just fell in East Bridgewater! Very heavy snow! WOW!

    1. Scott says:

      lol, some are getting enhanced snow from the band that came off the water interacting with the moisture from the south.

  192. metking says:

    Hadi, you’re one of my favorites and I respect your commentary. Im just sharing my view which has been consistently accurate all season. Just saying

    1. Hadi says:

      I hear ya::)). I like your straight forward attitude. Not any of the gargabe that people post.

    2. Hadi says:

      I am gonna get you on board for a big one before the winter is done::)). The next storm could have been a monster if we got it to slow down. I still think based on current thinking a foot for a lot of places from Boston north and west.

  193. JimmyJames says:

    This may turn into a nowcasting situation and were going to have to keep an eye on the radar. Those 2s may have to be expanded beyond the warning area.

  194. HOMER says:

    This storm is in no hurry. Starting to look like last nights radar.

  195. Scott says:

    Wherer is Baileyman? love to hear his thoughts on tues nite and wednesdays storm and ok tonight but he said 3 to 6 i think for 3 days or so and also like to know if barry b thinks we get nailed big time wednesday too!? snowing moderate with close to 2 in on ground in westboro ma steady snow now!

  196. Craig@Northeastweathereye.comg says:

    Wonder if Barry will back track at 11 with this coastal…..??

  197. Scott says:

    the radar looks so weird right now, part of it is moving southeast, and another part is moving northeast.

  198. PhillipStrandedAgain34 says:

    Baileyboy is a top notch weather forecast guy but, he did say 4 days back we would get hammered with 6 to 12 over the 2 day weekend!!!! ok like 2 days he backed off and said 3 to 6 and that tonights storm might surprise so for that i give him credit! i mean he is kinda good at this it seems but he like others are not perfect even if He likes to brag!!

  199. Hadi says:

    Nam is running curious to see where it places the low for next storm around 60 hrs. It will tell a lot.

  200. Scott says:

    somethings telling me that batch of moisture will never make it to the northshore.

  201. Hadi says:

    I am going to say that the storm for wed has a really good CHANCE of being like the December storm. The NAM has the low so far in a really good place.

  202. haterain says:

    Would you look at that radar. I really think there is a dome over the Merrimack Valley this winter. I give up…

    1. Scott says:

      i feel your pain on the north shore, that moisture is avoiding my area as well, for the time being…

  203. TADchaser says:


  204. NickDaddy43 says:

    want to hear what tpkatt88 and bailymans are saying about tonight and next storm on tued into wednesday? how much? who gets rain etc etc etc.. where you dudes hiding?

  205. BobPlowGuyShirley says:

    Personally i think Bailesman is Mark Rosenthal he seems like it to me could be wrong anyone know for sure? but i congrat him he was only met to hit this one back when!

  206. BobPlowGuyShirley says:

    Bailyman i mean to say then

  207. mIKKEYbullseye says:

    WHO cares about baileyman? he is a loser anyway! no one cares and he is ALWAYS WRONG AND JUST NEEDS ATTENTION AND IS NEVER WRONG IN HIS LAME MIND!

  208. RMB says:

    heavysnow still in ri, andre dursin, don’t know where you are reporting from… FLORIDA!????????????

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