Moving Day..Heading Back Into The Chill
A cold front is on the move today. This is the boundary separating the balmy mild air currently in place from much cooler air to our North and west. This colder air will wait until tonight to finally push in. Plenty of low clouds and fog this morning. Visibilities are gradually starting to improve after a very murky start. Scattered light showers and sprinkles have been pushing through from time to time. Temps have started in the 40′s…and that is just about where they will remain today.
The cold front has pushed into western New England this morning and should finally be pushing off the coast this afternoon. Along this front will continue the possibility of periodic showers.
I am watching two different disturbances. The first are the showers moving from PA into NJ. The 700 mb Vertical Velocities on the GFS show tremendous lift over southern New England this afternoon. Some of these showers will push into southern New England this afternoon to lock in the clouds and may provide a few lingering showers especially south of the Pike. Showers are having a tendency to weaken and break apart moving through the region. ..so they are light..but enough to keep roads wet. This may keep it a bit damp at Foxboro.
The second is the energy and storms coming out of Virginia and the Carolinas. As the cold front pushes off the coast this afternoon, it will likelyy slow and stall. A wave of low pressure will ride up along the front and provide Southeastern New England a bit more rain which will linger into the evening hours. After midnight the low will push through and the clearing and cooling trend will commence…with temps dropping into the 20′s by dawn.
Sunny and cooler weather for Monday with highs in the mid 30′s. A eak low will push out of the Great Lakes and weaken over us Tuesday providing clouds and a chance of a few flurries by night. Breezy NW winds on the back side will provide a reinforcing shot of cooler and dry air for the mid week.
The snow storm we have to watch out for will start as another weak low from the Great Lakes…but this time energy will shift to the coast with a secondary low developing south of New England and become a stronger storm over the ocean. Phasing of the jetsreams allow this storm to intensify…but the timing, placement of when the northern and southern streams will merge will still be critical to the forecast and is nothing but speculation at this point.
Most models agree on a strengthening storm off our coast in the late Friday-Saturday Time period. The question is does this storm get it’s act together in time to provide an accumulating snowfall to us heading into the weekend and how strong will it be? Right now it certainly appears like we will get some snowfall, especially in southern New England along with some gusty winds at the coast. This will not be a ”bomb” like the last one…but it could ramp up fast enough for a quick 3-6+” of snow by Saturday.
Behind this storm the cold will continue it’s full cort press into next week with air on the move right in from Canada. Enjoy the these waning moments of warmth while they last…