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Focusing In On The Details…

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

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Joe Joyce WBZ-TV Meteorologist

Joe Joyce WBZ-TV Meteorologist

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Reporting Joe Joyce

We all know this is going to be a major storm. The track has trended towards the west where this storm will likely hug the coast as it bombs out providing Blizzard conditions from Delaware/MD to Philly, Trenton, Long Island and eventually into New England. Some of these area will be seeing 16-20 inches of snow. This will be a crippling storm for the I-95 corridor…luckily many should be off the road…except the thousands who will be flocking to Lincoln Financial Field to watch the Eagles take on the Vikings in Blizzard conditions. Should be fun!

Here in New England…we will have to watch for snow to quickly push into southern New England quickly by afternoon. I am expecting 2-5″ to be on the ground by sunset with snowfall and wind quickly becoming heavy into the evening. The more westward track has this storm bombing just south of Long Island than shifting east where it will track between Cape Cod and Nantucket early Monday morning.

The snow/rain line will be a bit of an issue with this storm. There is a warm air wrapping into this storm from the south that will try to push all the way up into southeastern MA. How far north the snow/rain line goes is still in question…but it appears to make it all the way up to Scituate…with the coastal front perhaps backing just inland from Cape Ann during the evening hours. This warm air coming in off the water could allow for a wet mix for a time and should keep accumulations down at some of the immediate beaches…especially south shore to the Cape. As the storm pulls away Monday morning we will see the snow rain line collapse towards the coast.

As we have been talking about the heaviest snow will occur on the colder side of this coastal front as Warm moist air will be overriding the cold air in place. This boundary appears to be setting up from Worcester County, to Metro West, Middlesex, Essex, and Rockingham counties for jackpot snowfalls. The closer to the coast..a heavy wet back breaking snow will fall…farther inland a colder fluffier snow which will add up significantly. Moisture profiles are showing 1-2″ of liquid…so where there is mostly snow there will be several places who receive 18-24″ snow …especially outside, North and west of Boston. NNE winds at the surface should play a key role in helping to keep Boston mainly as snow…but it is going to be close. Snow ratio of 8-1 for Boston with 15-1 ratios farther inland. 

The strongest winds will likely come tomorrow night, shortly after sunset. It is going to be shocking how hard and fast the snow comes in tomorrow out of the Northeast. Winds will be gusting to 60 mph at the coast.  Blowing and drifting snow as snow falls at 2-4″ an hour will make this quite a sight. As the low approaches Cape Cod by Dawn, winds will be dying down as the eye of the low moves over. So my morning live shot at Scituate…may not be as extreme in regards to the wind. The early morning high tide at 3:40 will be raging with seas 20-25 feet off of Stellwagen Bank.  I think tomorrow night is going to be the most extreme part of the storm…very dangerous to be on the roads. Snow will linger through Monday morning…and end by afternoon…but the blowing snow will continue to limit visibilities so the Blizzard warning is in place until 5 PM Monday.

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  • Scott

    thanks joe for the update.
    if that 00z NAM verifies, the coastal front would not make it past Plymouth.

  • josh081290

    Whats intersting is as the low pulls away from the cape it deepens to 966 mb, which is equivalent to a strong category 2 hurricane. this should be a hell of a storm to watch

  • ScottF

    Great summary, Joe!

  • leo

    Who knows where the rain snow line will be tomorrow morning? Anywhere from Boston to the canal. Nobody knows for sure. Its a guessing game now and will fluctuate with the next few model runs.

  • Jan

    So does the 1 – 2″ of liquid, and a 15:1 ratio equate to a possible 30″ of snow inland (metrowest)???

  • JimmyJames

    Thanks for the updated blog Joe. Snow Index remains at 3 which is a MAJOR Snowfall but the closer you are to the Cape and Islands I thinking mixing will be an issue so I am giving those areas a 2 which is a Moderate Snowfall.

  • JimmyJames

    I should add if it looks like 20 plus inches will occur in an area a 4 will be given which is the top of the 1-4 snow index.

  • Scott

    jimmy, i would wait to upgrade till atleast tomorrow afternoon, until we pin down exactly where mixing will take place, some coastal areas(north shore) could be one of the sweet spots if no mixing takes place

    • JimmyJames

      Scott good advice on that one but if no mixing happens the areas with the 2s will more than likely become 3s. Another thing I am going to be looking at is where is the heavy bands of snow going to setup and are they just going to sit over a particular area for a long period of time. If it looks like 20 inches or more will happen that will need an upgrade

  • Blizzard 2010

    has topkatt jumped on board for the storm yet? I have not seen the blogs today. I know he was skeptical even after all the models converged. I assume with the blizzard warning in place, that he has jumped on board

    • Topkatt88

      Bliz I was on board late this morning/early this afternoon.

      • Blizzard2010

        as I said i hadn’t seen the blogs today, but you were not on board lastnight yet, that is why I asked. all the meteo’s had, but you had concerns still. Was just curious if you had come around yet. Glad to see you did this morning, should be a beauty of a storm to follow..

  • southshoretom

    thanks Joe…..great job over the last few days.

  • Hadi

    Thanks Joe!!! Great job with this. Anyone have thoughts of how much snow we thinking for me in Augusta me. Ratios look like 18-1 or 20-1.

    • Craig@Northeastweathereye.com

      Hi Hadi…I used to live in Augusta back in the 1970′s..and my younger brother owns Cosmic Charlies in Augusta on water street…Steve and Jada!

      • Hadi

        I am only visiting for the holidays:))

  • jack

    This is one dangerous MONSTER… If you don’t have chains’ and a 6000lb truck, STAY off the roads!! Let us do our jobs first then take a look.

  • http://joejoycewbz.wordpress.com joejoycewbz

    Thanks guys. I am tired. I will be in the thick of the snow tomorrow night collecting video then Live Monday morning from Scituate light. Working me to the bone!

    • Brad Guay

      Hope you’re making some good overtime!

  • Scott

    i really hope i see thunder and lighting in my town, might not be able to fall asleep tomorrow night, all nighter anyone for tomorrow night?

  • hcarool

    Scott, I am an all nighter.

  • Jim

    Any chance this thing slows down off the coast of the Carolina’s tomorrow and pushes the start of the snow back till tomorrow night?

  • JimmyJames

    I don’t know if I am going to be an all nighter but I am going to try to stay up late and watch the storm evolve. I was up prior to 4 AM this morning checking to see if any winter storm watches were posted and they were. It was at that point I knew we have something brewing here.

  • Omegablock

    Ok, I am suppose to be at work at 7 am on monday. I am driving from the North Shore to Sommerville. What are the thoughts on making it there? Or leaving the house at all?

    • Topkatt88

      If there is any way you can take the day off, do it.

    • Longshot

      Omega, stay home.

      • Omegablock

        Hey thanks Topkatt and Longshot. It makes my decision a little easier.

    • jack

      Maybe Wednesday.

  • kev

    Hey all- longtime lurker here- not a met but an extreme weather lover. I thoroughly enjoy reading this blog and find the knowledge, banter and predictions to be enlightening and entertaining! So, tell me, what can I expect for snow in Dedham??

    • Topkatt88

      I’d place you in the 12-18 band, but watch for locally heavier if you are just west of the coastal front.

  • philip

    Kevin Lemanowicz is calling for 12-18″ for Boston and 18-22″ for west of 495.

    • philip

      I am not greedy….as long as all snow for Boston. :-)

  • Scott

    Keven from fox weather doesnt have the mix past Plymouth

  • JimmyJames

    Omegablock I am giving a high impact on the Monday morning commute but tomorrow night is not going to be good either so as I said earlier today if you need to get anything done do it early on in the day.
    Kev welcome to the blog. For Dedham I have that area is a 3 on the snow index which is a MAJOR Snowfall of 10-20 inches.

  • weather_czar

    Breaking News from NWS – they will be canceling the Blizzard Warning as of midnight. Remember you heard it here first.

    • Scott

      hope you enjoy shoveling 15-20 inches of snow, and i hope you lose electricity :)

    • Craig@Northeastweathereye.com

      Weather_czar….For Boston???? I don’t think so….if it is Boston…

  • Longshot

    Watched the TV mets at 10:00 PM.

    All had Boston over a foot. More inland.looked like the furthest the mix line would come would be so shore, but even that area would see significant snow. The almost all rain line was outer cape.

    Should point out that a couple of central mass areas had 20″ written on them.

  • kev

    Thanks Topkatt + Jimmyjames, I really enjoy reading both of your posts. Fascinating stuff and you both have an incredible grasp of the models and patterns. Thanks for sharing with the rest of us. Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!!!!!!!

    • JimmyJames

      Kev thank you for your kinds words and yes let it snow let it snow let it snow!!!!

    • Topkatt88

      kev … Enjoy the storm and be safe!

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