Focusing In On The Details…

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

We all know this is going to be a major storm. The track has trended towards the west where this storm will likely hug the coast as it bombs out providing Blizzard conditions from Delaware/MD to Philly, Trenton, Long Island and eventually into New England. Some of these area will be seeing 16-20 inches of snow. This will be a crippling storm for the I-95 corridor…luckily many should be off the road…except the thousands who will be flocking to Lincoln Financial Field to watch the Eagles take on the Vikings in Blizzard conditions. Should be fun!

Here in New England…we will have to watch for snow to quickly push into southern New England quickly by afternoon. I am expecting 2-5″ to be on the ground by sunset with snowfall and wind quickly becoming heavy into the evening. The more westward track has this storm bombing just south of Long Island than shifting east where it will track between Cape Cod and Nantucket early Monday morning.

The snow/rain line will be a bit of an issue with this storm. There is a warm air wrapping into this storm from the south that will try to push all the way up into southeastern MA. How far north the snow/rain line goes is still in question…but it appears to make it all the way up to Scituate…with the coastal front perhaps backing just inland from Cape Ann during the evening hours. This warm air coming in off the water could allow for a wet mix for a time and should keep accumulations down at some of the immediate beaches…especially south shore to the Cape. As the storm pulls away Monday morning we will see the snow rain line collapse towards the coast.

As we have been talking about the heaviest snow will occur on the colder side of this coastal front as Warm moist air will be overriding the cold air in place. This boundary appears to be setting up from Worcester County, to Metro West, Middlesex, Essex, and Rockingham counties for jackpot snowfalls. The closer to the coast..a heavy wet back breaking snow will fall…farther inland a colder fluffier snow which will add up significantly. Moisture profiles are showing 1-2″ of liquid…so where there is mostly snow there will be several places who receive 18-24″ snow …especially outside, North and west of Boston. NNE winds at the surface should play a key role in helping to keep Boston mainly as snow…but it is going to be close. Snow ratio of 8-1 for Boston with 15-1 ratios farther inland. 

The strongest winds will likely come tomorrow night, shortly after sunset. It is going to be shocking how hard and fast the snow comes in tomorrow out of the Northeast. Winds will be gusting to 60 mph at the coast.  Blowing and drifting snow as snow falls at 2-4″ an hour will make this quite a sight. As the low approaches Cape Cod by Dawn, winds will be dying down as the eye of the low moves over. So my morning live shot at Scituate…may not be as extreme in regards to the wind. The early morning high tide at 3:40 will be raging with seas 20-25 feet off of Stellwagen Bank.  I think tomorrow night is going to be the most extreme part of the storm…very dangerous to be on the roads. Snow will linger through Monday morning…and end by afternoon…but the blowing snow will continue to limit visibilities so the Blizzard warning is in place until 5 PM Monday.

Comments

One Comment

  1. Scott says:

    thanks joe for the update.
    if that 00z NAM verifies, the coastal front would not make it past Plymouth.

  2. josh081290 says:

    Whats intersting is as the low pulls away from the cape it deepens to 966 mb, which is equivalent to a strong category 2 hurricane. this should be a hell of a storm to watch

  3. ScottF says:

    Great summary, Joe!

  4. leo says:

    Who knows where the rain snow line will be tomorrow morning? Anywhere from Boston to the canal. Nobody knows for sure. Its a guessing game now and will fluctuate with the next few model runs.

  5. Jan says:

    So does the 1 – 2″ of liquid, and a 15:1 ratio equate to a possible 30″ of snow inland (metrowest)???

  6. JimmyJames says:

    Thanks for the updated blog Joe. Snow Index remains at 3 which is a MAJOR Snowfall but the closer you are to the Cape and Islands I thinking mixing will be an issue so I am giving those areas a 2 which is a Moderate Snowfall.

  7. JimmyJames says:

    I should add if it looks like 20 plus inches will occur in an area a 4 will be given which is the top of the 1-4 snow index.

  8. Scott says:

    jimmy, i would wait to upgrade till atleast tomorrow afternoon, until we pin down exactly where mixing will take place, some coastal areas(north shore) could be one of the sweet spots if no mixing takes place

    1. JimmyJames says:

      Scott good advice on that one but if no mixing happens the areas with the 2s will more than likely become 3s. Another thing I am going to be looking at is where is the heavy bands of snow going to setup and are they just going to sit over a particular area for a long period of time. If it looks like 20 inches or more will happen that will need an upgrade

  9. Blizzard 2010 says:

    has topkatt jumped on board for the storm yet? I have not seen the blogs today. I know he was skeptical even after all the models converged. I assume with the blizzard warning in place, that he has jumped on board

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Bliz I was on board late this morning/early this afternoon.

      1. Blizzard2010 says:

        as I said i hadn’t seen the blogs today, but you were not on board lastnight yet, that is why I asked. all the meteo’s had, but you had concerns still. Was just curious if you had come around yet. Glad to see you did this morning, should be a beauty of a storm to follow..

  10. southshoretom says:

    thanks Joe…..great job over the last few days.

  11. Hadi says:

    Thanks Joe!!! Great job with this. Anyone have thoughts of how much snow we thinking for me in Augusta me. Ratios look like 18-1 or 20-1.

    1. Craig@Northeastweathereye.com says:

      Hi Hadi…I used to live in Augusta back in the 1970’s..and my younger brother owns Cosmic Charlies in Augusta on water street…Steve and Jada!

      1. Hadi says:

        I am only visiting for the holidays:))

  12. jack says:

    This is one dangerous MONSTER… If you don’t have chains’ and a 6000lb truck, STAY off the roads!! Let us do our jobs first then take a look.

  13. joejoycewbz says:

    Thanks guys. I am tired. I will be in the thick of the snow tomorrow night collecting video then Live Monday morning from Scituate light. Working me to the bone!

    1. Brad Guay says:

      Hope you’re making some good overtime!

  14. Scott says:

    i really hope i see thunder and lighting in my town, might not be able to fall asleep tomorrow night, all nighter anyone for tomorrow night?

  15. hcarool says:

    Scott, I am an all nighter.

  16. Jim says:

    Any chance this thing slows down off the coast of the Carolina’s tomorrow and pushes the start of the snow back till tomorrow night?

  17. JimmyJames says:

    I don’t know if I am going to be an all nighter but I am going to try to stay up late and watch the storm evolve. I was up prior to 4 AM this morning checking to see if any winter storm watches were posted and they were. It was at that point I knew we have something brewing here.

  18. Omegablock says:

    Ok, I am suppose to be at work at 7 am on monday. I am driving from the North Shore to Sommerville. What are the thoughts on making it there? Or leaving the house at all?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      If there is any way you can take the day off, do it.

    2. Longshot says:

      Omega, stay home.

      1. Omegablock says:

        Hey thanks Topkatt and Longshot. It makes my decision a little easier.

    3. jack says:

      Maybe Wednesday.

  19. kev says:

    Hey all- longtime lurker here- not a met but an extreme weather lover. I thoroughly enjoy reading this blog and find the knowledge, banter and predictions to be enlightening and entertaining! So, tell me, what can I expect for snow in Dedham??

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I’d place you in the 12-18 band, but watch for locally heavier if you are just west of the coastal front.

  20. philip says:

    Kevin Lemanowicz is calling for 12-18″ for Boston and 18-22″ for west of 495.

    1. philip says:

      I am not greedy….as long as all snow for Boston. :-)

  21. Scott says:

    Keven from fox weather doesnt have the mix past Plymouth

  22. JimmyJames says:

    Omegablock I am giving a high impact on the Monday morning commute but tomorrow night is not going to be good either so as I said earlier today if you need to get anything done do it early on in the day.
    Kev welcome to the blog. For Dedham I have that area is a 3 on the snow index which is a MAJOR Snowfall of 10-20 inches.

  23. weather_czar says:

    Breaking News from NWS – they will be canceling the Blizzard Warning as of midnight. Remember you heard it here first.

    1. Scott says:

      hope you enjoy shoveling 15-20 inches of snow, and i hope you lose electricity :)

    2. Craig@Northeastweathereye.com says:

      Weather_czar….For Boston???? I don’t think so….if it is Boston…

  24. Longshot says:

    Watched the TV mets at 10:00 PM.

    All had Boston over a foot. More inland.looked like the furthest the mix line would come would be so shore, but even that area would see significant snow. The almost all rain line was outer cape.

    Should point out that a couple of central mass areas had 20″ written on them.

  25. kev says:

    Thanks Topkatt + Jimmyjames, I really enjoy reading both of your posts. Fascinating stuff and you both have an incredible grasp of the models and patterns. Thanks for sharing with the rest of us. Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!!!!!!!

    1. JimmyJames says:

      Kev thank you for your kinds words and yes let it snow let it snow let it snow!!!!

    2. Topkatt88 says:

      kev … Enjoy the storm and be safe!

  26. Uncover says:

    This is just a spectacular storm…will be fascinating to watch.

  27. Dan says:

    Hi topkatt88,
    Enjoy your posts, wish it wasn’t going to be so bad, but do u think the wind/heavy snow will be over early Monday morning?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Heaviest should be done by Monday morning, though it may snow for a while into midday Monday.

      1. Dan says:

        Thanks… Work in a hospital on long wood so I’m hoping things will have eased a bit to allow T access into the city.

  28. leo says:

    Live in East Bridgewater. Looks like we will mix here, pretty bummed about that. Earlier forecast for mix was confined to the Cape but has crepped its way up to my house 40 miles to the north of the canal. Its gonna really stink when Im seeing that wind whipped snow start to mix in with those sleet pellets bouncing off my window. Oh well !!! Coastal front will probably be just west of my house

  29. Italo says:

    I’d rather see a storm like this stay all-snow, because mixing in will make it a huge, annoying, heavy and dangerous mess. Better it be lighter and easier to move around, even the drifts. Ugh.

  30. Jsi says:

    I am traveling from franklin, MA along the mass pike to pick someone up at 430 at the Springfield, MA train station. From there I am heading up 91 to my snow….what time should I leave to get to Springfield at 430. (I am driving an AWD volvo suv)

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I’d leave extra time more for traffic volume than snow, though driving at that time is going to be like driving through the open mouth of a shark. Hopefully you get the trip done just before it really goes downhill.

      1. Jsi says:

        I think getting to springfield is the easy part…..looking at future cast rt 91 is gunna be a disaster….I’ll be on there at 430 no avoiding it

    2. Jsi says:

      What time would you leave, I was planning on 1230 or 1pm….unless the snow starts early then as soon as I see a flake

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        If you have to make the trip, I’d leave at 1230pm, to be safe. And be ready to take it really slow. Please stay safe.

  31. RexRyan says:

    Harvey said boston may mix and end up with only 6 to 8 inches…..

  32. jack says:

    Pete B. just said this will be one of the top ten of all time storms!!!

  33. Scott says:

    from harvey
    -boston mixes-8-12
    -boston all snow, 12-20

    lastest NAM had boston all snow

    1. metking says:

      scott, i think boston will mix…metro west is the jackpot, boston south will be slop

  34. James says:

    I can not wait for this one, my wife and I are from Southern California have been here for two years but not seen anything like this I hope. We are up on the northshore in swampscott a block from the ocean so I hope we get pounded.

    I am an architect but have always been fascinated by extreme weather the blog has been really fun to read topkatt88 and jimmyjames have given a bunch of great info I love how scientific it all gets.

    Anyway keep up the post and I hope we get dumped on as we say out west.

  35. Topkatt88 says:

    I think it’s going to be fascinating to see how short a distance will present a drastic difference in temperature and type of snow or mixing when that coastal front sets up.

    We may very well see a boundary, running north to south, somewhere near or just southeast of Boston, where the temperature is near or even slightly above freezing on the east side of it, with mixed precip, and just a couple miles to the west on the other side, it’s in the mid to lower 20s with heavy snow, blowing & drifting snow. Wish I could know right now where this boundary will be, but it’s almost impossible to call them in advance. It’s really more of a nowcasting exercise.

    1. RexRyan says:

      I have a feeling the 128 belt just northwest of boston, and 5-10 miles in from the coast will be the jackpot…..obviously not set in stone, but believe these area’s hold onto the NNE winds

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        I absolutely agree with that line of thought right now.

      2. RexRyan says:

        glad to see you agree Topkatt88.

  36. philip says:

    Pete Bouchard has a tiny area just SW of Boston at 20″+ due to ocean effect.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      That will only work if that region is west of the coastal front and the wind is northeast. If the wind is more northerly there, which it very well may be, you can toss out the ocean-enhancement in the region he had it.

      1. jack says:

        18″ or 28″ it’s the drifts that are going to be the killer.. How are you even going to measure the snow fall with 50knt winds??

  37. BradG says:

    Harvey is making me nervous…his snow map just had Boston with 7 inches, when before, it was a foot. Is this a trend? I’m 10 miles north of Boston in Wakefield, Ma, just barely inside the 128/95 belt. Should I only be expecting 7 inches? I’m getting confused since the rest of the stations are still calling for a widespread 14-20″. There’s a big difference. Comments??

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Harvey’s snow map had Boston on the line between 8-12 inches and 12-20 inches. And he was leaning toward Boston staying mostly snow.

      1. BradG says:

        Well, that’s why I was confused. Before the general snow map, his “future cast” had the specific, city by city, snowfall totals, and Boston had 7.5 inches. Not trying to be picky here with the amounts, just got a bit confused.

  38. Fred45auburn says:

    Where is Baileyman?? ?????????? he was calling this hugh 3 or 4 days ago! i would love to hear if he has an update.

  39. JimmyJames says:

    James thanks for your kind words. The thing to look at with this storm is where that mix is going to setup because where that happens that will cut down on snow totals. I am thinking the Cape and Islands that get in on the mix and another thing to watch is where the heavy snow bands will setup.

    1. James says:

      Thanks for the info have been watching and reading the blog all day my wife wants to smack me and my parents are in from Los Angeles so they are like you have to be kidding it followed us.

      I am just hopping it hits hard really want to throw on the snowboarding gear and head out for a late walk to the sea wall and get some video. Nothing else to do but watch and enjoy….on vacation for the week.

  40. CalciumMagnesiumAcetate says:

    I like snow up at my townhouse in Lincoln, NH.. Down here I like easy driving and cars not white from road salt. I live in Weymouth about 2 miles from the ocean so it’s always an adventure with forecasts here. I’m guessing that we’ll get between 6 and 18. Im also glad I stopped plowing. The money was always good but these guys were out all last week with the nusiense snow and they’ll be out tomorrow night through Tuesday afternoon. Hey they were begging for snow!

  41. BradG says:

    Well, that’s why I was confused. Before the general snow map, his “future cast” had the specific, city by city, snowfall totals, and Boston had 7.5 inches. Not trying to be picky here with the amounts, just got a bit confused.

  42. StacieDPW says:

    Topkatt did you hit this storm prediction like most others? Did anyone have this forecast early on? how much in worcester??

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Stacie .. I was one of the last of the met’s to hop on board with this one. Why? I was in the “I’ll believe it when I see it” camp. The computer models had alot of trouble in recent storms, so I wanted to see all of them agree, especially the UKMET & ECMWF (or Euro as we affectionately call it). Once they were all there, so was I.

      Worcester’s snow? 18-24 inches is my current guess.

    2. philip says:

      Stacie…Worcester could get easily 20″+…your area is in the “sweet spot” now.

  43. JackWrentham says:

    Baileyman, stop signing on under multiple accounts and saying how great you are.

  44. StacieDPW says:

    I hate when the media television outlets keep running storm preperation hype and video showing salt and sand piles each year. Who the cares?!!!! And then with the plows showing everyone and explaining how they are going to plow?!! That is crazy!!!!!! As if this year they are going to try a new approach and dump bananas on the highways and roadways, and then not plow!!!!!!!! are you for real????? are we morons??!!!! of course they plow and salt snow!!!!! they do it every year!!! what a joke!!

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Agree 100%. And I love the banana comment. :-)

  45. Charlie says:

    Snow/rain line is gonna try and set up from Weymouth down rt24 through Taunton and west to Providence will all get 9-12 inches, just west of that 12-16 with some isolated 2 ft amounts southwest and west of Boston

  46. ohMarymackMackmack says:

    wow! what a hugh amount of snow in a 20 hour time period! i hope no one is driving

  47. Chris says:

    I wish the storm will jog a little east now disappointed with the mixing now. I’m close to Seekonk MA rain line goes through this area too. I was hooky it would be confine to the cape.

  48. ohMarymackMackmack says:

    huge

  49. Chris says:

    dont know if we are ready for this one

  50. JimmyJames says:

    Well I am off to get some rest and I will chat with all of you once again tomorrow!

  51. Sue says:

    congratulations to jimmyjames, topkatt, weather wizard,baileyMan and allison for nailing this storm early! did i miss anyone?

  52. Storm says:

    Rain never makes it off the cape. May mix west of the canal but breifly.

  53. plowman says:

    wuts up with north shore pete b said that ns would be hit hard up there due to ocean affect true false and we shouldnt c any mixing up here right alll snow!!

  54. Michael says:

    hey guys im def loving this blog right now…but i have a few questions if someone could answer would be really cool…so im from Andover CT and im in windham county that borders RI to the east and southern Worcester county to the north well they have new london county below me in the blizzard warning and so is RI and Southern Worcester County….should i expect to be in the blizzard warning as well? and how much snow do you think I will get… thanks guys stay safe everyone tommrow and merry christmas

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Michael… I think the only reason they may leave that county out of the Blizzard Warning is because they don’t expect the winds to be strong though there to meet the definition of blizzard. That doesn’t mean you won’t see significant blowing & drifting snow. You are most certainly going to stay all snow in this, and your area should be in the 12-18 inches band.

  55. philip says:

    I am hoping that the morning newscast has the storm a bit further east so that Boston and points just south have no mixing or changing issues. Kevin Lemanowicz had the “best” forecast with all snow from Boston down to the Canal. Keeping my fingers crossed that Kevin’s forecast holds.

    Good night, everyone!

  56. Chris says:

    I think this blog is going to light up doing this snowstorm. Its going to be fun.
    On a sidenote, im changing my name from just Chris, to ChrisF bc i saw another blogger using the name chris.

  57. BaileyMan says:

    Hi my final thought for the night.
    First of all I don’t use other screen names jackwrenthem thank you very much!
    I am fine with this one and am fairly new to this blog. Although I did forecast this storm and stuck to my guns for the past 4 days regarding snow totals, and the powerful development of the storm I am well aware that I will have my share of misses. However I am off to a good start mind you considering the problems the computers had prognosticating the last 2 storms. In any event, I still think Worcester hills and much of central New England will see 18 to 24 inches! Boston and the suburbs 15 to 20in especially 10 miles away from the coastline such as the 128 corridor. South shore communities I think in the ballpark of a foot maybe except for immediate coastlines in RI and southeast MA. As you approach the cape and the islands I expect 3 to6in before mixing and rain before ending as a few inches of snow after the storm. Winds will be powerful out of the northeast with potential gusts at the height of the storm 70mph! Coastal flooding and moderate beach erosion will likely take place in many areas along the shoreline. Storm duration in total 20 to 24 hours with heaviest snows after 4 pm tomorrow and blizzard like conditions after 7pm. The snow should tapper off Monday afternoon and end in most areas completely by evening with powerful winds and blowing and drifting in areas that receive powdery snowfall amounts. At times, it may snow at 3 inches per hour and perhaps even 4 inches per hour in banding areas! Inland snow ratios should be 15 to 1. The storm although very intense with imbedded lightning possible should bomb out just southeast of Nantucket Monday morning then move away! Stalling does not seem likely due to the absence of blocking from a strong high pressure system.
    Again, I am glad the storm is coming and I am fortunate to have predicted it a few days in advance. I hope you all are safe during the storm so that we can sit back and admire the wonder of Mother Nature! Merry Christmas all! And a happy new year!

  58. TomThumb says:

    baileyman you have no clue how to forecast and have no idea what you are talking about it is clear to everyone so give it up and stop making up forecasts and pretending you predicted it ! we know you are a liar about all this.

  59. Joshua Alexander says:

    Southern NH .. Amherst NH looks like we will see close to 2 Feet !! Should be quite the storm. Thank God, it’s not stalling else we’d be talking the Blizzard of 78. Thats said, this storm will be historic.

    1. jack says:

      it’s as close to 78′ as I’ll probably see in my life time. been thru them all. 69 to this CAN’T wait!!

  60. CarrieSnowBunny says:

    Tom thumb now you sound dumb! cause he DID predict this storm!

  61. stewed says:

    enjoy the snow while you can because the pattern next weekend and into next week looks mild and will likely wash most of the snow away!!!

  62. ArnoldBostonCollege says:

    good forecating Baileyman!

  63. hopeimwrong says:

    plows are on the trucks, we are ready to go. will post snow amounts
    rat routes 4\225 just east of 128 as the storm goes on. light flurries at 5:24am

  64. southshoretom says:

    well….. I can see some reasons for Marshfield getting 2 inches of snow and some reasons for it getting 15 inches of snow. It should be fun, although the fact that its already 36F is not a good sign.

    1. southshoretom says:

      I’ll go for 10 inches of cement like snow here on the eastern side of town. Portland, ME dewpoint is 10F…heavy bands of precip in cool enough column will also help offset marine air in the boundary layer. (I hope).

  65. Longshot says:

    Barry Burbank on 6 am news:

    1) Ocean effect snow will fall this am; mostly No Shore.; spreading to Essex/Middlesex counties; 1/4 –1/2.”
    2) Blizzard Warning in eastern MA; blizzard conditions will start in late afternoon.
    3) Coastal Flood Watch on Cape; will change to a Warning especially when high tide comes at 3:26 am; moderate to major flooding.
    4) High Wind Warning on Cape; 30-60 MPH.
    5) Outer Cape: mostly rain; will switch back to snow; 1-3.”
    6) Inner Cape (Bristol/Plymouth); will be on the mix line; 6-12.”
    7) Boston: mostly snow but could get a little sleet; snow expected to be very wet; 16”
    8) Worcester/Fitchburg: Jackpot – 20” range
    9) Western MA: 14”
    10) Manchester: 10-12”

    Toughest call for snow amounts in area from below So Shore to Canal. Snow to the east heavy will be wetter. Snow to the west drier.

    1. southshoretom says:

      #3 is a real concern. When I was out Friday by the seawall at the 1pm tide, there was already some water splashover making its way over the seawall. i assume the ocean swells had a chance to relax a bit yesterday, but the tides are somewhat astronomically high from a just past perigean moon.

      1. Longshot says:

        SST, he mentioned the flooding more than once

  66. Joe says:

    I’ve been at my shop since 10 last night after my family went home dotting my I’s and crossing my t’s on my equipment and trucks. However, no matter how prepared you think you are all bets are off when the bleep hits the fan! I hope nobody takes offense to my analogy but I can’t think of a more accurate one. When everyone is told to stay off the roads, your out plowing and it goes from a moderate snowfall to 0 visability and thunder snow within 30 seconds it might just be better than sex! It goes from the normal controlled chaos of plowing to insanity. I can’t wait!

    1. hopeimwrong says:

      Joe know how that feels, nothing like plowing in white out condititions!
      just love the sound of that blade hitting the ground and pushing snow

  67. josh081290 says:

    Its interesting how last night the blizzard warning was calling for 50-60mph winds, now its down to 20-35. i eonder why, the track and intensity looks much the same

  68. JimmyJames says:

    Good Morning everyone as we are now hours away from the first Major Snowfall of the season. All week if you have been following my posts I always thought we would see some snow from this storm system but was not buying a major snow until late Friday. The Snow Index remains the same from yesterday. A 3 for most areas which is a MAJOR Snowfall and a 2 for the Cape and Islands only becuase mixing will happen there to cut back on the snow totals. Will have to see if that mix line moves and also where the heavy bands setup because I would not be surprised to see 20 inch amounts in some areas where that happens. Monday morning commute will have a HIGH Impact so if you don’t have to travel PLEASE DONT!

  69. southshoretom says:

    As I recall from yesterday’s blog, the Eagles football game was called to attention as a game that would be played in a blizzard. Doing a little nowcasting here…if one looks at the radar and does a little extrapolating of the precip based on the precip…it would not appear Philly is going to make it into the heavy precip. Assuming this is correct, could this be an early sign that a slightly more eastward path to the low is possible and that the heavier snow will fall even closer to the coast.

    1. southshoretom says:

      extrapolating of the precip based on the MOTION….

  70. Nick says:

    burbank saying 10 inches boston to 128

  71. Lawrencewx says:

    Already snowing in Lawrence, MA (essex county).
    Looks like a jackpot total possible up. I will give an early call of 22″ when all is said and done!
    Enjoy the blizzard!!

  72. JimmyJames says:

    SouthshoreTom nowcasting is going to be a definite possiblity throughout this storm. You could see the area of low pressure starting to get its act together around the Carolinas. I would not be surprised if some lightning strikes over the ocean and the southeastern parts of Virginia looking to be getting some good banding with the snow right now.

  73. Fall River John says:

    Good Morning All……well so much for my all snow event here in FR….praying for a wobble to the east as this storm makes it way up the coast,

    1. Steve-O says:

      yo….i live in your area and it looks like we’re going to be sitting right on the fence here in SE MA. It’ll be interesting to see how this unfolds. No question we live in the area thats most difficult to forecast snow amounts at this point.

  74. philip says:

    Now starting to snow pretty good here in Boston.

    Also, is this storm going to be somewhat similar to the 1993 Superstorm?

    1. philip says:

      I really don’t like comparing past storms but is the “intensity” at least similar?

      1. JimmyJames says:

        Philip this low formed in the Gulf where the Superstorm did that storm produced a lot more snow in the south in areas such as Atlanta than this one did. The pressure might come close to that but to me as a whole the Superstorm was far worse.

  75. BaileyMan says:

    Good morning mr Burbank! glad to have you on this storm, Barry burbank did not say 10 in in boston around 16 just waking up storm still on ! only questions remain how strong the wind gust potential on shoreline. how the rain/snow line wobbles and ends up and how quickly the storm moves out monday!?! not likely to stall but intensity might still slow it a bit?! jackpot snowfall areas likely worcester area 20 to 24 inches possible. snowfall rates could fall at 3 or 4 an hour for brief periods of time all nite and monday am more later

    1. Bigfoot says:

      BaileyMan Will It Be powdery snow in somerville and how much?

      1. shotime says:

        Honestly Bigfoot, it depends on what part of Somerville you’re talking about. If you border Cambridge plan on a wetter snow. All us city folk can hope for is slight shift east so we don’t have that back-breaking kind of snow!

      2. Longshot says:

        Wetter towards coast. drier snow inland.

  76. Nick says:

    bailey he said 10 in boston at 620 am on tv

  77. rainshine says:

    What is mesoscale snowbanding? And is there a chance we could get it around here? I did look it up but I couldn’t get a definitive explanation . . .

  78. Nick says:

    barry has taken the blizzard out of the 7 day now,i think at noon we might see the waring lifted because of mixing issues and lack of intensity,winds are only going to be 35 -45 now in some areas still a good dumping

  79. Willy13 says:

    12z NAM coming in now………

  80. Paul52 says:

    I hope all of you had a great Christmas Day! Out here in Pepperell it looks like I will finally get payback for all of the misses from the storms of late! Certainly no mixing issues out here. It has been snowing steadily for a couple hours with about a half inch of new snow. The snowfall here for the season thus far is 13.2 inches below the average; which should get erased by the time this is over. Anyway, it will be great fun to watch this all unfold today. Happy snow measuring!!

  81. RMB says:

    The Blizzard warning if it gets lifted for Eastern Mass is not because of the Storm intensity, but cause of a mix getting involved, however they may expand the warning further westward.. The wind will be very strong tonight and Tom when it bombs out… May hear some thunder as well!!!! Any talk of Frz Rain and sleet near the 95 corridor, with warm air trying to get involved??? This is a monster and looking at the length it seems to stop Tom evening??????? Am i right with a least light Snow till then?? Has been snowing lightly all morning with a light coating in RI

    1. Longshot says:

      Again here are Barry Burbank’s comments.

      1) Ocean effect snow will fall this am; mostly No Shore.; spreading to Essex/Middlesex counties; 1/4 –1/2.”
      2) Blizzard Warning in eastern MA; blizzard conditions will start in late afternoon.
      3) Coastal Flood Watch on Cape; will change to a Warning especially when high tide comes at 3:26 am; moderate to major flooding.
      4) High Wind Warning on Cape; 30-60 MPH.
      5) Outer Cape: mostly rain; will switch back to snow; 1-3.”
      6) Inner Cape (Bristol/Plymouth); will be on the mix line; 6-12.”
      7) Boston: mostly snow but could get a little sleet; snow expected to be very wet; 16”
      8) Worcester/Fitchburg: Jackpot – 20” range
      9) Western MA: 14”
      10) Manchester: 10-12”

      Toughest call for snow amounts in area from below So Shore to Canal. Snow to the east heavy will be wetter. Snow to the west drier.

    2. philip says:

      RMB…any light snow should be over no later than early-mid afternoon tomorrow.

  82. leo says:

    nam looks the same

    1. tim says:

      already sleet and rain in hingham

  83. RMB says:

    This light snow that is falling, is it ocean enhancement, not directly from the storm yet??? Also this looke to be around 970mb, just amazing… I wonder when this is all done if we will see higher amounts, it may be played a little tooo conservative..

  84. leo says:

    37f in Marshfield right now ugh!!

    1. southshoretom says:

      dewpoints are in upper 20s and its cold enough above us to snow. I’m gaining a bit of confidence that we’ll get a decent wet snow out of this…

  85. southshoretom says:

    dont know if its a temporary thing or what…but Logan’s wind is around to 360 degrees (due North)……and dew points on South Shore and Cape are remaining steady in the upper 20s to around 30. There’s a little room for the temps to fall southeast of Boston when the precip gets cranking.

  86. leo says:

    Right along shore south of Boston is really warm!!! 30f in East Bridgewater and going up! We will fall when heavier precip sets in but im really nervous. Probably some rain here unfortunately

  87. Dave says:

    So how much is Auburn Mass going to get roughly 18+

    1. shotime says:

      Dave, your area could be the jackpot depending on the actual track of course. I’ve heard as much as 20+

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        Eh, 18, 20, when you get to amounts that high with the kind of wind you’re going to see, a couple inches no longer makes a difference. Let’s go with 19 anyway. ;-)

  88. RMB says:

    Thanks phillip, looking at the models they seem to keep precip in here a little longer, and if i take from 6am this morning till Tom afternoon we are looking at 30 hrs!! We have very light snow falling as we speak, my question, is this ocean snow or from the storm???

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      The snow over MA right now is a combination of energy from the an storm crossing the Ohio Valley yesterday and slight ocean enhancement just underneath. You can see that by looking at motion on radar. 2 layers of snowfall, a higher-based one drifting eastward and a stream (which is at a lower level) moving east to west.

  89. shotime says:

    Temperature in Brighton is 24.4 degrees which is down from 26 degrees at 7 am. Interesting?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Evaporative cooling from the current snowfall. The temp will only shoot up toward freezing if the coastal front sets up over or just west of that spot later.

  90. hcarool says:

    RMB, the snow currently falling isn’t from the storm

  91. BaileyMan@ says:

    Sorry but again my blogs wont take for some reason?! so ill change my screen for this blog to answer 2 questions dont know why i cant get on but ill try BaileyMan2 for this blog!! then back to BaileyMan

  92. Scott says:

    initial batch of snow was surprising to see, already around an inch has fallen.

  93. josh081290 says:

    already getting steady light/moderate snow here in hollis,nh. its funny how in many noreasters it takes several hours for the atmoshpere to saturate enough for the precip to hit the ground at the onset of the storm. however, even the lightest snow on radar is making it to the ground, and im suspecting the lack of a high pressure to the north is why the atmosphere is already saturated. when the main precipiation field works its way in in a few more hours (its already ahead of schedule), the precip should increase quickly and heavily, without any losses due to virga. it appears the latest nam run has the storm even a little more intense. sure will be interesting!

  94. Hadi says:

    Having problems posting again test

  95. RMB says:

    Topkatt, even here in RI, we have some light snow falling, however it is not picking up on radar, why??? Is it the same set-up in mass fromthe snow we are getting

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      It depends on where you are. Northern RI is on the southern edge of the ocean-effect band, and southern RI is on thte northern edge of the snow area from the developing storm to the south. If you’re in the middle, then I guess it’s anybody’s guess where the actual flakes are coming from. ;-)

  96. StillBaileyMan says:

    Ill try try try try try!! but i wish they would fix this blog and YES i am BaileyMan but needed to keep changing script to get my blog posted!

  97. Hadi says:

    Morning update from NWS. Clearly they think Boston and immediate suburbs are jackpot zone, they wrote about a gravity wave topkatt can you explain that in more detail? Thx

    1. josh081290 says:

      i would be surprised if boston is the jackpot zone, snow ratios wont be very high. 128-495 (immediate suburbs) do look to be the jackpot zone however, and also out to worcester where they may get some elevation enhancement

  98. manowx says:

    With temps near 32 in Marblehead it wont take much to wind gradient off the ocean to go above melting 33-34 F plastering snow The worst

  99. fred says:

    someone please help me out how much snow is the stoughton canton sharon area suppose to get

  100. Snowlover says:

    Topkatt88 Good morning. Last night I had asked you if Medford would receive all snow and you said yes. Thank you for yours and others response.
    Does that still hold now with the latest computer models? Also when it is mentioned immediate coast for this particular storm what cities and towns north of Boston will change over? I would love all snow. :)
    Thank you for all your hard work and keeping us all updated.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Snowlover… I saw a slight westward adjustment on 00z guidance, don’t put alot of stock in 06z runs, so I wanted to wait for 12z to get 2 trusted NAM runs of consistency before I bought the westward jog. I don’t see that. The 12z is slightly east, so with all of that shuffling, the short answer is I think you will still stay pretty much all snow. Just have to watch where the coastal front sets up. It may set up near Boston and make it just about to where you are for a while. At the least that would make for wetter snow for a while, and at most it would cause some mixing for a time. I think if eithier of these happen it will only be over a period of a couple hours tonight and that this line would collapse back toward the coast later, putting you back in the colder air and lower water-content snow. It sure will be fun to watch.

  101. Topkatt88 says:

    There isn’t alot more to say about the development of this thing, and the overall track. Now time to watch the evolution, exact track, and most importantly, placement of the coastal front in determining precip. type & amount. That’s what I’ll be doing today in between cleaning up from Christmas #1, getting ready for Christmas #2, and of course enjoying some Patriots football!

    Hope everybody stays safe. :-)

  102. leo says:

    above freezing here in East Bridgewater already.

  103. leo says:

    raining in Marshfield

  104. RexRyan says:

    Medford=ALL SNOW and heavy amounts

  105. Hadi says:

    Tried posting NWS update but it will not take so it’s a good read. It’s the 9 am update.

  106. Scott says:

    i expect those who have above freezing temps now, lets say Plymouth north, should go back to below freezing by the time the real batch of precip moves in.

  107. rainshine says:

    What is mesoscale snowbanding? And is there a chance we could get it around here?

  108. fred says:

    hi excuse me topkatt you seem to know what your talking about on here could you please tell me im guessin 12 inches in stoughton sharon area could you tell me your input i appreciate it thanks and keep up the good work. Also if anyone else would like to chime in go ahead thanks all

  109. leo says:

    I hope so Scott, we are actually in a nice little band of Mod. wet snow now. I believe you on the north shore will stay mostly snow in this particular storm setup. Im jealous!!!

    1. Scott says:

      im just as worried as you are about that rain/snow line. we’ll see what happens, the lower dewpoints should also keep it snow, aswell as the more NNE winds, right now most places that are above freezing have a ENE wind, which should switch over to a NNE wind as the storm gets closer

  110. Joshua says:

    Slightly concerned, temperature wise. This reminds me a little of our February 2010 bust (lots of snow from NYC to DC, very little in Boston area). I hope I am wrong, but the rising temps near the coast have me worried. If it’s raining in Marshfield and it’s 37 I doubt whether it”ll change back to snow until the back end of the storm, and only then will the temp get back to freezing. That’s my take. The jet stream is a very skinny “U” shape, digging deep into the south of the US, but then skirting the coast almost vertically, not at a SE/NE slant. I don’t regard this as favorable for all snow in Boston.

  111. tim says:

    high risk blizz warnings coming down due to westward wobble and and dry slot in boston area…uhhgg

    1. Hadi says:

      Where are you reading that?

  112. Topkatt88 says:

    Hadi… Rapidly deepening storms can cause rapidly rising air which some of then sinks when it gets colder, and also pushes some of the surrounding air downward through natural physical processes. Anyway the pressure change that results in this can propogate outward like pond ripples when you throw a stone. Often one side of the circle will end up stronger due to other dynamics, and you can see this reflected in the weather by a rapidly-moving line that contains quick drops then rises in pressure, a narrow but intense band of precipitation, and sometimes strong winds & thunder.

    I remember a gravity wave in a winter storm back in the 1990s when it got so dark for a few minutes during the day it looked like nighttime, or doomsday.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I should have stated that alot of times in rapidly deepening winter storms, we see gravity waves coming into our area from the south or southeast. Something to look for later.

  113. Joshua says:

    Outside it just doesn’t feel like previous heavy snow falls. One could sense something dramatic was happening back in 93, 97, 03, 06 prior to the big storms. Temps were not marginal (or, in April 97, they were dropping like a bucket towards freezing all day before the change-over to snow). This one is distinctly non-descript in terms of feel. I am not schooled in models and meteorology, so I leave that up to the experts. But, my instincts usually don’t deceive me. I am hoping I am dead wrong about this one

  114. Old Salty says:

    You guys are experiencing the coastal front. On the west side,
    N to NE winds on the East side, E to NE winds. Hug diff in temp.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      This may turn out to be one of the more impressive coastal fronts we’ve seen.

  115. Old Salty says:

    BTw, the 12Z GFS precip totals are not as impressive as the 12Z NAM.
    Not sure how it will translate later.

  116. Scott says:

    temp already dropped half a degree on the north shore(30.5-30.0), anyone else’s temp drop that has a temp above freezing?

  117. Old Salty says:

    Here in JP, temp 29, wind NNE. Just cloudy at the moment.

  118. Old Salty says:

    TopKatt,

    Thanks for you input on gravity waves. Best explanation I have seen.

    NWS mentioned it in their discussion right after they indicated snowfall rates of 2-4 inches an hour. With gravity wave, could be higher than that!

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