Atmospheric Waiting Game

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

At this point there are still more questions than answers in regards to the upcoming storm. We are still playing a game of  “Wait and See”. Not just what the models are going to say..but also how the actual weather is going to behave. I have been eyeing this Global Enhanced Water Vapor Imagery. Isn’t it beautiful?

There are several things we have to watch that will have a major impact in determining how much if any snow we will receive. First, is our departing storm SSE of Newfoundland. This low continues to loop around. It needs to pull out soon…or this could help to force the storm further south…like the NAM has been advertising.

Secondly, the main piece of energy which we are tracking is up near Hudson Bay in Canada. This is a vortmax which will be directed south by and upper level ridge in the west which is being forced east by another digging trough along the west coast. Got it? Once the snow in the midwest shifts south and weakens…I expect this shortwave to coming slamming down into the trough and help to merge the polar and subtropical jetstreams and help this storm get going.

gfs 500 054m Atmospheric Waiting Game

But if this piece of energy does not link up with the southern stream at just the right time…then all the moisture from the Gulf just may be steered out to sea like some of our models have been showing. What an atmospheric dance! It is amazing how everything has to be exactly perfect for a storm to happen.

But let’s be honest here. We are not thinking a miss quite yet! In fact the Euro and the GFS  look similar this morning with a moderate thump of snow for eastern MA. My concern is looking at the GFS ensembles  which many STILL do not show a hit, with some just clipping East MA.. The offshore track  is certainly must remain in play until we see this atmospheric waiting game start to play out.

This morning I am mostly leaning on the 00Z Euro and 06Z GFS which have similar looks. These models have shown a fair amount of consistency…but the Euro has tracked a bit farther east…so we will have to see if that east trend continues at 12 Z. The models seem to be a good compromise to the offshore/miss scenario.

This storm will come out of the Gulf of Mexico and bomb out south of New England. Today it appears that the heaviest snow  and wind will be confined to the coast with the track just far enough off shore to spare inland areas outside of 495 the heaviest snow. A track or trend to the west would have more serious reprecusssions with heavier snow totals for most areas and stronger winds for the coast.  I have been saying on television the best chance of heavy snow 6-12+”  is Southeast MA with a good chance of plowable snow extending back to Worcester county to the Merrimack Valley into NH. Obviously, Plowable snowfall can mean a lot of things…a few inches to something much more. Early estimate…heaviest amounts closer to the coast. 

It’s BAAAACK. 12 Z GFS is a beast! A shift back to the East? Nah.

gfs op apcp f66 us Atmospheric Waiting Game

Check out the latest run of the Japanese. It’s a monster too!

conus jma 1000 500 slpthkprp 72hr1 Atmospheric Waiting Game

I could give out numbers and snow totals but what is the point? It is just going to change by tomorrow.  The thump of snow is starting to look more and more like a blizzard. These latest runs are nuts! A shift back to the west is back in play. The stakes are extremely high. Look out! If this is the track verifies…we will be snowfall measuring in feet.

That is thinking for now in another episode of As the models turn….

Oh by the way…Here is my holiday gripe:  Where are all the Nativity scenes? Are we not allowed to have these in public anymore? You never see the manger, the three kings, and baby Jesus anymore. I loved this as a kid. It is such a wonderful charming story and the true spirit of Christmas. Silent night is an amzing song to play tonight. Instead we are bombarded with advertisements of couples buying diamonds and cars for each other. Kids are getting laptops, Ipads, Game systems. What a spoiled entitled generation this is becoming and it makes me sick. Consumerism and Secularism running wild. It must be Santa! Give me a break. It’s a very sad really.

I ask you to make sure you take the time this Christmas to step away from the madness and insanity. Put down the Iphones for once and just enjoy what Christmas is all about. Peace, Love,  and Family.  Have a very Merry Christmas. And don’t ever be ashamed to say it!  More updates tomorrow. Guess how I will be celebrating?? Watching the next model run come in…Yippee! Care to join me?

Comments

One Comment

  1. crashralph says:

    Great post Joe honest & to the point what more can a fellow weather watcher expect!!!! Thanks again and merry Christmas to you as well.

  2. RMB says:

    I would like to thank everyone for the great year we had chatting on here, and agree with JJ on the Christmas season, Family friends, food and gifts, remember what it we are celebrating.. With that said please keep in mind our brother’s and sister’s over seas in great danger fighting for freedom (I FOR ONE CAME CLOSE TO LEAVING) lets remember them and pray for them as we enjoy, i have missed holidays being overseas and it is not fun, so enjoy and always remember them!!! THANK YOU!!! WE HAVE THE BEST MILITARY AND THE BRAVEST………..

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      My father was a soldier in WW II. I will always deeply appreciate the service so many do for me, my son, and and all of us. Without them, I wouldn’t want to think what it would be like here…

  3. Andre Dursin says:

    Amen to your post about the nativity Joe! Amazing how in wanting to steer clear of “offending” a few people the rest of us have to suffer now through the jewelry commercials, car commercials, Santa Claus and “Holiday Music” on the radio that seems to be comprised of 4-5 songs (usually non-secular, i.e. Frosty the Snowman).

    Well guess what — MERRY CHRISTMAS to you and everyone else here. And if you don’t celebrate it, I will wish you a happy Hannukah or Kwanzaa or Festivus.

    And if you’re offended by that, I could care less. Ho ho ho everyone!

    1. Italo says:

      Well-put, Andre. Politically correct shouldn’t mean the banning or subtraction of one of the Season’s many celebrated holidays and its expressions, even one that has been traditionally more outwardly celebrated and visible like Christmas. Christmas shouldn’t be removed — if the other of the season’s holidays want to be recognized, too, then they can choose to make themselves more visibly expressed in public if they opt to, too. Merry, Merry! :)

  4. Longshot says:

    Joe, a nice post!

  5. Topkatt88 says:

    Thanks Joe! And I echo your gripe. I have no problem with the diversity that makes up today’s world, but I do have a problem when people are told they can’t display what’s important to them…

    To Andre… There are a few stations in Boston that have been playing Holiday, or Christmas, music (I say holiday only because some of the songs are more winter songs than specifically Christmas, and have been traditional songs of the season for many years). But most of these stations don’t seem to be holding back playing songs that are rooted right in the religious base of Christmas. They have had a great mix. I love hearing all of it.

    Off to do some fun errands with my son on this bright, chilly Chrstmas Eve morning. I will post off & on about weather today when I take my tea breaks at the desk here in my den. Have a great day all!

    1. Italo says:

      I’ve been hearing the best Christmas Season music on my Digital Comcast’s Sounds of the Season TV station. Personally, I really like the more solemn and traditional Christmas carols usually reserved on radio for Xmas Eve and Day. But I also like the “ol’ timers” like Steve Lawrence & Eydie Gorme, Percy Faith, The Ray Coniff Singers…the ones whose season sounds really brought out the spirit. I can’t figure out why today’s mostly automated radio programmers can’t be a little bit ahead of the ball and all not try to play the same few artists’ only same songs always at the same times of day or evening over different stations at the same moment — geez, be a little creative, media guyz! ;)

  6. joe says:

    Good blog. I have try to set up alerts to my phone by texting to 84816 using WBZ Weather and keep getting rejected. Any help is appreciated. Joe S. Hampstead NH

  7. Paul52 says:

    Excellent column Joe! I couldn’t agree more. Although we have to take the much of the blame for allowing ourselves to get caught up in the blatant consumerism; myself included. I am 58 and I have been observing it for better than 50 years! But, at least back then we didn’t have to be ashamed to utter the word “CHRISTMAS” and nobody ever took offense at any public displays of mangers, etc. I have been curbing my own buying impulses and learning to just relax and enjoy the Christmas season, decorations and the family. Anyway, here in Pepperell I have a bare inch of snow on the ground this morning so it may be just a partial white Christmas here. If we get a minimally plowable snow out here from the next event I will be happy; what with the way this winter has been going! No matter what happens…
    A VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL!!

  8. crashralph says:

    I have a quick question for you guys. If this storm does indeed phase and become vertically stacked shouldn’t this become a cut off low and once it reaches lets the the Benchmark area won’t this storm slow it progression dramaticaly? Am I wrong in what Im seeing could happen? Just food for thought, thanks!!!!

  9. Dave says:

    Joe Joyce that was an awesome blog !!! it ended with everything i believe also.you could not have said it better and its good to hear somebody not afraid to say it.in lexington we lost our nativity scene because of local liberal beauocrats.thanks joe that made my day and MERRY CHRISTMAS to you!

  10. TIM7865 says:

    Thanks joe for all you do to keep us informed and the last thread was nice to hear,MERRY CHRISTMAS AND DONT EVER BE AFRAID TO SAY IT!

  11. Mel Webster says:

    I and many others I know no longer pay attention to any forecasts that are more than 24 hours out. Time after time after time we are “scared” to death by doomsday forecasts and then the news and promotion departments make it worse hyping things well in advance, giving storms names, etc. before they even materialize. This is just one more of the reasons that TV is dying.

  12. JimmyJames says:

    Merry Christmas to everyone and especially to those figthing to defend our freedom overseas. Joe I have not seen one manager set this year and to me Christmas has become so commercialized that we forget what the true meaning of this holiday is.

  13. Andre Dursin says:

    Topkatt — we’ve got a glut of stations in Providence likewise playing holiday music. Sadly hearing “Silent Night” seems to be secondary to the endless playings of:

    a) Let it Snow
    b) Winter Wonderland
    c) White Christmas
    d) Frosty
    e) Rudolph
    f) Silver Bells
    etc.

    The proportion of secular to non-secular songs is not roughly equal on the stations down here…glad it’s better in Boston :)

  14. Andre Dursin says:

    Oh and BTW I very much enjoy reading your posts on the blog as well. Thanks for contributing.

    Merry Christmas to one and all!

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Thanks Andre!

      And just to follow up on the music. I realize there are alot more non-secular tunes that have reached the ears of the public than secular ones. I’m used to it. I grew up with it that way. But there are alot of beautiful and amazing songs out there that nobody has really ever gotten to hear. It would be nice to hear some of them over the airwaves. I’m glad I own the collection I do, at least. :-)

  15. hcarool says:

    Henry Margusity is saying he is “pretty” sure Boston is going to get a blizzard.
    http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/43473/merry-christmas-video-is-ready.asp

  16. Metroweather says:

    Thanks Joe for the great post. That made my XMAS Eve. Merry Christmas to all this holiday season. I’m hoping for a good storm so we’ll wait and see!

  17. crashralph says:

    On a side note and it is off topic but I am sick of the attack on christianity it seems everday there something new on the news about taking Merry Christmas out of the lime light. If our politicians agree with the grievances people who do not like or are offended by it then maybe the polititions who allow law changes should not be given vacation time or days off during the holiday season as it should be treated as any oother day. Want to see things change back to what it used to be suggest that & you will see change faster then anything you ever seen before. Now this country is great has all faith and practices are allowed. But our foundation is what makes america, america. It is time to put the U back is USA. If people dont like or want to celibrate something then don’t it ur right. OK rant over!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. Clever says:

      Actually, this country was founded by people that believed in religious freedom. They were not trying to establish a Christian government. Can we stop the talking about the politics of Christmas and get back to the weather. Go to the Fox News blog if you want to complain about the amount of Christmas songs about Jesus on the radio

  18. rainshine says:

    Joe, thanks for the great information in your blog. It is a wait and see situation.

    RMB, my father fought in WWII and I always feel for the soldiers that are oversea – especially at holiday time. I wish them all a Merry Christmas.

    In Sudbury there is a small but nice manger scene at one of the churches.

    Merry Christmas to all!

  19. FlippityFloppity says:

    Very intelligent Joe! Stir the pot with some Christmas/religion thoughts so we can bicker about religion, as opposed to the weather!

    I kid i kid. I feel that this will be a “nowcasting” storm that starts around noon on Christmas. I imagine the 11 AM or 2 PM runs on Christmas will “lock down” the track and we’ll know what to expect then.

  20. tim5 says:

    BUZZ LOPEZ says what joe did in that the prior beast is still retrograding and will push low pressure out to sea south of the area.

  21. JimmyJames says:

    CrashRalph my pastor a few weeks ago was saying the same thing how fewer people are saying Merry Christmas and are saying Happy Holidays instead. He brought up an interesting point that whether someone celebrates Christmas or not they won’t be offended if you say Merry Christmas.

  22. Jan says:

    Henry Margusity on Accuweather is specifically saying that Boston will be “hammered with a blizzard”.

  23. NortonDave says:

    Thanks for the great blog, Joe. I agree with you that it is time to put family, friends, love and peace back into Christmas. When the snow started a few nights ago in Norton, my partner and I silently stood in our doorway and watched the flakes silently drifting down and covering the landscape. Take time out to enjoy Mother Nature this season as well. It is one of nature’s gifts. Merry Christmas to you and keep up the good work.

  24. crashralph says:

    Im in the public alot JimmyJames as my job requires it. I meet several types of people and ethnicities. Now the last couple of days I’ve heard everything from Happy Holidays to Merrt Christmans from people of all walk of light. Now I found myself just replying to everyone with the words Happy Holiday and then kicked myself yesterday afternoon and started repling Merry Christmas to all. I receved all smiles. I think people generally as a whole are not affended. But there is a selected few. Like I say it everybodies has the right to to celibrate any holiday any way they see fit. Its what makes this country great. But enough is enough our country is our country and it time for our foundations to be brought back to were they once were.

  25. crashralph says:

    I cant type today its Merry and walks of Life sorry!!!!

  26. crashralph says:

    P.S. if I wasn’t in such a hurry to get the post up before the refresh then my spelling erros woould be limited!! & Yes HM from accuweather is saying a blizzard for boston. Lets c how it plays out.

  27. john says:

    right on joe !!! i am willing to bet this isn’t the case all over the country, however when your state is run by a bunch of sickening liberals , this is what you get.

  28. Dave H says:

    You are right on the money Joe regarding Christmas. I also think it is sad that seemingly at sunset Christmas Day, the carols stop and many lights get switched off. Christmas actually begins on the day and runs 12 days, does it not?

    1. philip says:

      DaveH…I absolutely agree with your on that. Not to meniton stores start filling the shelves with Valentines stuff first thing December 26th.

  29. JimmyJames says:

    Thats okay CrashRalph I make so many typing errors on this blog.

  30. crashralph says:

    Thanks JJ, I have a feeling about this storm. Boston is going to get hammerd. Now if this storm manages to slow down a bit, look out!!! Lets see what the models show later today!!!! On that note. My wife just landed in Minnesota and Im going on the speaker phone to break news that shes prego to her mom. We have kept the secret for about 16 weeks now. Have a great Merry Christmas everyone. and keep the great post coming

  31. Rick says:

    i agree dave why do the people of massachusetts keep voting these people into office,like ted kennedy all those years,for every person he extended aid to somebody more deserving got the shaft what a joke

    1. Clever says:

      Real Christmas spirit. Jesus really shouldn’t have helped out people in need. It was in-American.

  32. shotime says:

    Merry Christmas Eve Joe, all at WBZ and everyone on this blog!!! Thank you Joe for sharing your heartfelt feelings with us this morning! I whole heartedly agree with you on every point. This is my favorite day preparing for Christmas… the sauce is on the stove, the cookies and pies in the oven and the spirit of Christmas is in the air! Now if it would just SNOW!

  33. joejoycewbz says:

    This is a tough storm to figure out. I can see it going both ways. A slight jog to the west and we will get crushed with blizzard conditions…a slight jog to the east and we get nothing. The call for now is down the middle…but curious to find out what the endgame is going to be.

    Nice to see the Christmas spirit is alive and well on the WBZ weather blog of all places!

  34. philip says:

    Hey Joe, excellent blog as always…I also would like to give an AMEN to the last two paragraphs of your blog. I just don’t understand WHY many people these days are so offended by the Christmas holiday.

    Any thoughts on this??

    Anyway, Merry Christmas everyone!!

  35. Topkatt88 says:

    I like the solution the 12z NAM gives. Reminds me alot of the storm that just went by.

  36. joejoycewbz says:

    Japanese model has a godzilla sized monster!

    1. RMB says:

      JOE IS THAT MODEL REALIABLE, HOLY COW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I HAVE GUT FEELING THIS STORM IS GOING FURTHER WEST, I BELIEVE THE UPPER LOW WILL TUG IT CLOSER TO THE COAST!!!! THAT MODEL IS SCARY… LOL

  37. Bozzs says:

    Merry Christmas All !
    Keep it merry and safe !

    and ps Let it SNOW ;)

  38. philip says:

    Up until Joe’s brief comments above, I have yet to see a forecast that we could get nothing at all. From what I have seen, we should get something….it’s just a matter of a couple inches or close to a foot in some locations. We will see.

  39. crashralph says:

    Joe its Godzirra!!!! LOL wouldn’t that be something. If that were to come about the storm would be moving a bit slower then now predicited. Correct?

  40. leo says:

    12z gfs is a good distance further west!!!!

  41. JimmyJames says:

    Get that low to track to benchmark so all of Southern New England gets a good dumping of snow. This is looking like an eastern New England storm and that area might need an upgrade on the Snow Index and as I said earlier I think if you are west of the CT River Valley don’t expect much.

  42. tray says:

    joe not to be nosey but what kind of money does a broadcast met make?merry xmas

  43. leo says:

    12z gfs has slowed down a bit on Benchmark I think, can someone else chime in on this and elaborate. Thanks

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I was just talking to some former coworkers about the 12z GFS solution. They are buying it. I am not buying it just yet. I’m in the NAM camp.

  44. Topkatt88 says:

    Who needs the Japanese model? Snowlovers will be excited about the 12z GFS today. ;-)

    1. RMB says:

      That GFS slowed down and looks really good!!!!!!! Wow and Topkatt the Nam looks a tad further west, i believe.. How about you???????

  45. philip says:

    Now I am curious…how reliable is the JMA in general? I never hear too much about it one way or the other.

  46. ricky says:

    Joe,
    What are your feelings on the Japanese model… You can’t post something like that and not comment on it LOL…. that storm would be huge….

  47. Jeremy says:

    it apears we are getting new info that we might be talking a major noreaster in the boston area,it now looks like this storm might stall near benchmark.very .i tinterested in noon reports i think 1-2 feet is a good bet now

  48. hcarool says:

    12z GFS is a beauty. It also shows southwestern New England getting hammered.

  49. WeatherWizard says:

    Joe,Merry Christmas! You are a great addition to BZ. I like the way you get involved with this blog; some BZ meteorologists just post their blog and don’t contribute to the discussion. You and Barry are different. If I was the weather producer you and Barry would be the weekday meteorogists for the morning/noon/ evening newscasts. BZ ratings would rise sharply.

  50. haterain says:

    Topkatt, what do you think of the Euro? If the 12Z Euro looks something like the GFS will that bring you into that camp or are you seeing something that will make you stick with the NAM?

  51. randy says:

    Wow…thanks Joe for saying what so many of us have been thinking for so long…why are we letting this political correctness stop us from celebrating this great day the way we should!

  52. ed says:

    dylan dreyer now saying monster noreater

    1. keefer says:

      am watching her now and she is NOT saying that.

  53. leo says:

    Next euro will show a snowlovers dream!!! I think.

  54. JimmyJames says:

    Stand by for upgrade on the SNOW INDEX because I am waiting to see a few more model runs come in before I upgrade but if this storm is heading for the benchmark a 3 on the Snow Index could very well happen which is a MAJOR Snowfall of 10-20 inches.

  55. Lawrencewx says:

    You just made my day JJ! This has to be the best blog that I have read on this website!! MERRY CHRISTMAS Joe to you & your loved ones!! Keep the Christmas spirit going!!

  56. crashralph says:

    Check this out guys so much energy!!!! http://mapcenter.hamweather.com/satellite/wv/24hr/us.html?s=640×480

    I have to get stuff done will be back later, buy wow is all I can say!!!!!

  57. Willy13 says:

    If the 12z Euro holds, and we get consistent runs for balance of day, I’m in on big storm (snow) scenario……….

  58. Dave H says:

    The 12Z GFS almost looks like a switch to rain at least on the Cape.

    1. southshoretom says:

      agreed and you could probably extend that northward up to the southshore. Over or to the northwest of the benchmark with a strong storm = some rain on the coast south of Boston, in my experience.

  59. RMB says:

    Topkatt, u have not gave much info, as a weatherman are you at this moment trying to figure if this is a trend (THE REAL DEAL) YOU SEEM TOOO QUIET RIGHT NOW, HAS CAUGHT UR INTEREST:)

  60. Old Salty says:

    here is 1 link that gets the Japanese Model output.

    http://www.wxcaster.com//conus_0012_foreign_models.htm

  61. JimmyJames says:

    Willy good point and that is why I am waiting for a few more models runs before upgrading the Snow Index. Right now I have it a 2 which is a MODERATE Snowfall.

  62. Scott says:

    Getting nailed by this mobster would be the best Christmas present.
    We really do need to wait for these current trends to stay consistent, also for the NAM to trend just a tad more west.
    Merry Christmas everyone!

  63. Willy13 says:

    The 540 line well offshore throughout, precip type questions would seem to favor mostly snow…….

  64. OLD SALTY says:

    This is from the HPC this morning:

    THE SURFACE WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER A COLD H5/H7 CIRCULATION
    MOVING OVER THE JERSEY COAST AND RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WILL
    COMMENCE…WITH THE PREVAILING CONSENSUS TAKING THE LOW FROM ABOUT
    1001-1003MB DOWN TO THE 985-990MB RANGE IN JUST 12 HOURS…27/00Z
    OFF THE DELMARVA. THEN DOWN ANOTHER 10-15MB …BY 27/12Z… INTO
    THE 960s BETWEEN THE BENCHMARK AND NANTUCKET

  65. southshoretom says:

    I think Santa will have to take the GFS off the nice list if its giving all the snow enthusiasts false hope……… I need to see a second full day of a consistent scenario before I believe anything.

  66. RMB says:

    Just wondering due to the size and possible strength that it is slowing a tad, i thought the models earlier were a bit too progressive with this, also a little to east as well.. ANYONE??

    1. RMB says:

      The models have been pretty consistant an this being a deep low pressure around 970mb give or take, that is a big Storm..

  67. Trace says:

    Great Blog. I hope it doesn’t go way in 2011.

    Thanks Joe!

  68. snowyman says:

    when will the blizzard watch come into effect?

  69. joejoycewbz says:

    Here comes the Noon show! Yipee! Plese Don’t envy me.

  70. lvm says:

    This was the nicest blog I’ve read in a few days here, maybe tthe track of the storm should be left up to Jesus, it is his birthday after all! I personally hope he wants snow, Merry Christmas to all of you, you sure are a funny cast of characters! THINK SNOW!!!!!!

  71. josh081290 says:

    once again the gfs and nam are completely different. im sure hope that gfs run will be the continuing trend. that would mean a solid 12-18 for much of southern new england, along with some wicked wind. too bad we probably wont have a good idea of whats going to happen until tomorrow night.

  72. BaileyMan says:

    First of all, i am definitely to the left on the political spectrum and i totally agree with joe j regarding his christmas perspective. i am a fairly religious person who relishes religous choice and freedom as well as diversity it makes life interesting. but how is anyone offended by the belief and message of christmas!?!! it is good will to all people! as far as other religious freedoms and perspectives i say display them as long as its in favor of postivity and goodwill!

    ok well on to my forecast, i do realize im new to this blog but i was one of a few if any who has actually done weather forecasting on air years back prior to teaching meteorology grad courses. who (not to Brag) mind you but, did prognosticate the last storm almost dead on! and who can really say that?! part tongue and check mind you…but i was ok with that one. go look up old blogs of this name.
    anyway, As for this storm i earlier mentioned that the nam was not reliable statistically outside of 42 hours prior to an event and i stand by it! topkatt will have to disagree on that gfs slightly better at 48 to 60 hrs historically sorry. inside of 36 nam is good however! But as i mentioned earlier i said i was NOT buying the eastern placement of the low and thought strongly it could BOMB out and stack up vertically more than models and others predict! which means that my 18 hour storm threat analysis looks good at the moment and the storm should progress more slowly then earlier thought! Granted im am encouraged by the latest mid day GFS run which looks like well over a foot in all of central and southeastern southern new england
    the only caveat is…the EURO run im awaiting then ill make a specific forecast but alot of snow and wind seems more likely at this moment in time and MAYBE JUST MAYBE?? IF I HIT THIS ONE TOO? someone might give me a daps?!!! ha! have a good one blog back later!

  73. JimmyJames says:

    Snowyman I don’t know if we are going to see a blizzard watch because remember to have blizzard conditions you need to have less than 1/4 mile visibilty for 3 or more hours along with obviously heavy snow. You don’t need to have huge amounts of snow to have blizzard conditions. Now what I think will happen is come tomorrow if there is a potential of 6 inches or more winter storm watches will be posted.

  74. TiaMaria says:

    Merry Christmas to all and Joe…. Great post… You guys are so interesting!

  75. OLD SALTY says:

    Problem:

    From NWS

    WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM
    HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS
    MORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS…ONE
    THING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
    BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TO
    THE W…WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TO
    WAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR
    CHANGES.

    1. southshoretom says:

      given how the GFS has been performing, maybe this could help its cause.

  76. OLD SALTY says:

    The 12z ECMWF is critical. I’m guessing it will be East.

    1. Longshot says:

      Old Salty, I agree a trend to the east and then the next run, slightly back to the west.

  77. hcarool says:

    Old Salty, I am hoping for a trend to the west. I really want t that foot of snow in Southwest NH.

  78. JMA says:

    Bailey full of yourself much? Gee. I wish I could be as smart as you and tell everyone about it. How about a little more humility and a little less of your obvious insecurities. The NAM was garbage on the last storm west of 128. It did do a nice job for the cape region. However it also wanted to put 8″ of snow down in the CT River Valley of MA. The GFS has been flat out wrong in the 48-72 hr time frame for months now. Sorry, man you are not that good none of us are….

  79. Willy13 says:

    If there were initialization issues then no output should have been issued, they should have waited until the next run to make anything public……this is nuts!!

  80. JMA says:

    One other thing. HPC & NCEP’s EMC which is responsible for model engineering and mtnce are sending out multiple bulletins about bad INIT cycles for the 12z US models. So it would be best to disregard any data from the 6z & 12z outputs. Unless of course, it furthers your cause and you are more inclined to wishcast instead of forecast.

  81. Merlin says:

    Well I agree with you JMA about not knowing, even the ones who get the big bucks are wrong more than right. You all on this blog seem to know more than most and I look forward to all your input when it comes to these storms. I’m sticking to 30 inches in Boston myself! Merry Christmas to one and all!

  82. melzzz says:

    The phony controversy around the war on Christmas makes me laugh. I hear Merry Christmas all day every day leading up to the holiday. People like Bill O’Reilly and others who have nothing better to do need to create something in order to keep up their ratings. They take one or two isolated incidents and then misrepresent them as being widespread. If someone wants to say Happy Holidays, who cares? I say Merry Christmas and so do many others. That is all that matters. It is just ridiculous to make a big thing out of a “controversy” that really does not exist.

  83. Mazza says:

    Joe now says the latest models are more west now and is calling for 12+ in eastern ma!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  84. Spaniel says:

    Hum. Joe Lundberg on the Professional Accuweather site does not think this is going to phase in time to be a bad storm excep for Cape Cod and Maine. I have been out of the loop since early this am. What is new with the mid day model runs?

  85. hcarool says:

    Mazza, I saw that too. My town is in the 12″ snowfall.

  86. Tom says:

    melzzz your are a total ignorant idiot,do not disrespect joe joyce on his great blog.its people like you who need to get a clue

    1. jef3 says:

      and you’re not much better

  87. leo says:

    Does anybody know link for euro model? thanks!

  88. alisonarod says:

    Not to pat myself on the back but I’ve been with Baileyman on this one. I too thought the upper levels were different than this previous storm and thus a more amplified and deeper solution would be in the cards. I’m still going for that and if the EURO model verifies, look for 18-24 inches from Worcester, south and east with mixing on the Cape. I know it sounds like a long shot but once this storm becomes vertically stacked over the bench mark, that will likely slow the storm’s forward progression and throw lots of snow back into central and eastern new england. We need this prior storm to move a bit faster to make room for this upcoming storm. There is no doubt the norther and southern streams will phase and bomb out but hopefully that will occur over the benchmark. So far my forecast is hanging on so let’s hope for the big one!

    1. Storm says:

      Well UR def right about what you have been saying!!! Do not want a mix down here in SE Mass though. Just plain heavy snow would be awesome! I live right west of the canal and usually the canal is the mix line with storms like these. I am looking to prepare for 10-20 inches of snow. IF THIS BOMBS OUT AND STALLS WE WILL BE MEASURING IT IN SEVERAL FEET!!!

  89. jack says:

    “I could give out numbers and snow totals but what is the point? ” And yet you just did, Joe.

  90. keefer says:

    ” Look out! If this is the track verifies…we will be snowfall measuring in feet.” Nice to see the Master of Hype is at it again. Got stock in bread & milk sales???

  91. Mazza says:

    Hcarool my town is in the 12+

  92. alisonarod says:

    I’m curious to see if TK has budged any yet.

  93. leo says:

    If euro verifies everybody will budge!

  94. leo says:

    water temps 44F. Even with offshore track we will mix from marshfield down, I almost guarantee that!

  95. joejoycewbz says:

    Let’s not turn negative guys. I said IF the track verifies….and if it does…it will most certainly deposit well over a foot of snow. Trust me, I was not excited about showing that map at noon…but at this point I feel it is important for people to know this is likely going to be quite a storm. If the westward trend is correct..those numbers are conservative. Still, I am very aware that plenty of change could still occur. What a way to spend a Christmas.

  96. hcarool says:

    Can anyone give me a link to the latest Euro?

  97. joejoycewbz says:

    NWS talk of initialization problems and a lack of a High to the north does have me a bit concerned. 12Z Euro is going to be fun!

    1. Storm says:

      Must be a fun time to be able to do the weather at times like these!!! Although if things verify we need to be concerned for loss of property and life. Still from a science viewpoint this must be exciting for you

  98. Storm says:

    Money back with that guarantee. TOO much cold air plus snowcover on the cape different this time. Storm bombs out and makes it own cold air! Very little mixing. That water temp is down 3 degrees from last week

  99. snowyman says:

    Joe do you think the 12z Euro will have the storm track more west than east? Thoughts?

    1. Longshot. says:

      May turn east and then somewhat back west in subsequent run.

  100. leo says:

    Nervous about 12z Euro!

  101. Joe says:

    Melzzz,

    The hype over political correctness is not all hype, it is mostly very real. I could list a 100 examples but I will just list one that happened this week. a woman from n p r was being interviewed about the tax cuts. in her interview she was discussing a recent christmas party she attended. she referenced it by saying this, and I quote ” I was recently at a , please excuse the term ” christmas party “. She also said it in a sarcastic tone as if being embarrassed about even using the word. political correctness is alive and well my friend and if you feel that the word christmas is not looked down upon buy some then why would she have to excuse herself when using the term christmas party? her use of christmas party was a description of where she was and not a specific word or phrase that she thought she was apologizing for using. if you feel that having to apologize for using the word christmas is normal then you need to take a long hard look in the mirror and revaluate your stance.

  102. Topkatt88 says:

    RMB… I do have my thoughts, and at the moment they are that this one will be alot like the last one. I’m just not going to react model run to model run in a major way. I adjust slowly, most of the time, like the Euro. ;-)

  103. metking says:

    Looks wet sshore to cape at least for a few hrs if it goes west of bench, snowlovers should hope euro verifies

  104. david says:

    Joe NWS now saying models are not picking up phasing issues,this might be a concern as we go on in time.not buying monster storm yet at all

  105. matt says:

    i am new to the blog. i want a large storm. most of the models are saying we are getting some kind of storm. the amont still uncertain. but this is what i am predicting 6 to 12 inches of snow for south shore cape and islands.
    12 to 24 inches for southeast mass away from the coast. then 6 to 12 inches of snow south of a line from nashua to hartford ct with 3 ot 6 inches north of that line.

  106. BaileyMan says:

    JMA first of all this is suppose to be a weather blog isnt it?? were suppose to have fun with it and i am patting myself on the back but doing so tongue and cheek so relax obviously i was half kidding by pointing out my accuracy on last storm…but at 1 and 1 that is still 100%! lol so ill take it…going for 2 straight i hope?! But JMA ? please dont presume to think my thoughs entail being “full of myself” and insecurities. After all, this is just a weather blog and i hardly think that my insecurities would pertain to typing on a weather blog?!! We all have them of course but, sorry JMA not being displayed on a weather blog. But have a Great Christmas JMA and think snow all!

  107. joejoycewbz says:

    Interesting discussion from the HPC on the initialization problems.
    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html
    The suspense!

    Advising a blend of 00Z Euro and 06z GFS…should have stuck with my original idea…..Oh well. I still think this will be a strong storm bombing off the coast….with 50-75 miles in track making a huge difference in impact and totals

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Initialization problems are more common than alot of people realize. This has been a problem for years. It’s about half of the reason I don’t jump on quick model run changes. The ECMWF suffers very few initialization problems which is one reason it performs consistently and in general very well. It follows then that I use it for medium range more than anything else.

      The NAM’s biggest issue other than occasional bad initialization too, is convective feedback. That can throw a forecast off big time. I try to be on the lookout for this as well, before relying on this model too much.

  108. Chris says:

    My name is Chris. I’m new to the blog. I want a major snowstorm!!!! Be nice if it’s several feet!!!!! I’m in RI.

  109. petesakes2 says:

    only question is then why is the japanese model also in line with the GFS latest run??!! is that tied to the hpc initialization problems? otherwise its still west and a huge storm?!!

  110. Willy13 says:

    Great catch petessakes2…..and I doubt Japanese models are tied in to US…….

  111. RexRyan says:

    EURO is east, this will probably graze cape cod…..GFS had initialization issues which caused that run. I knew it was too good to be true!

  112. metking says:

    yes, it looks like those errors were present in the latest gfs/japanese unfortunately. they did not factor in the shortwave which not only speeds the system up but puts a lot of easterly pressure on it. look for a sizeable adjustment back to the east. still think ecoast is looking at a 6inch snowfall though

  113. Topkatt88 says:

    The 12z ECMWF may be a little too far east but it has a much better handle now, obviously, than the poorly-initialized GFS. I’m staying with the outside the benchmark scenario. Not going to flip flop. What else is new?

    Also I think I’m seeing a breakdown of the blocking pattern on the horizon. We’ll get into that a bit later. :-)

    1. Hadi says:

      How does the EURO look for Maine? Thx. Driving up right now

  114. leo says:

    That hurts about the Euro!

  115. Mark Paquette says:

    The gridded data from the Euro gives Boston about 0.10-0.20 of an liquid…an inch or two of snow. If the HPC is saying initilization errors in the NAM/GFS, believe them! But if there is the same error in init…why the differing solutions?

    Anyways, no blizzard, just a glancing blow

  116. BaileyMan says:

    how come i am not getting the new EURO 12z i always get it with everyone?! old one still up here ..where are u seeing that one? im on huffmans weather page?!??? ok im totally done with winter and any hope for snowstorms if this 2 has been a bust?!! im sick of it!! its never going to snow..ughhhhhhhhh merry christmas anyway

  117. Euro jones says:

    Joe – quick! you should ask the web site admin to take down that video of your 12pm forecast!!

  118. Tom says:

    Wow cant believe this went to a total miss now unreal,i think we are locked in now with this scenerio

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      We’re locked in until the block breaks down, then the storm track will shift back to the Great Lakes with the warm-ups for storms and the cold shots in between them.

      I’m a snowlover, ok? But this pattern doesn’t bother me. And I sure love the Euro model for forecasting. I’m thinking of proposing to it. I mean, being married to a European Model can’t be that bad right? Except not sure if my wife will like the idea. ;-)

  119. JMA says:

    Hey Joe Joyce, not that my opinion matters, but you do a really good job. In today’s 24/7 news cycle, the need for constant information, and the reality of weather forecasting you do a great job of balancing forecasting, the interactive part of the job, and letting your personality shine through. You will never be right all the time and never please them all, but you are real good at it all, and don’t ever forget that! Merry Christmas!

  120. namesake341 says:

    that is messed up!!! it is sickening what is happening with the computer models! somehow they are completely dropping the ball whoever is responsible this is a sickening flip flop im done with paying mind to forecasts!

  121. leo says:

    the roller coaster continues and will continue

  122. Steve-O says:

    ..they really need to straighten out these problems with the forecast models! Things should become clearer 48 hrs before a storm, not less clear. This is horrible.

  123. namesake341 says:

    Topkatt the reason you are right is because you always predict misses and guess what??! it is the easy thing to do cause they always do miss!!

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      LOL! I don’t always predict misses. Stay with the blog long enough and you’ll see that. :-)

      The truth is, I predict what I think is going to happen. I’ve always done that.

  124. metking says:

    Total miss now, let’s put a fork in it

  125. pan234 says:

    where can i find the updated euro?? i still have the old one on huffmans page???!!!!!!!!! where is it?

  126. BaileyMan says:

    same here pan apparently ill have egg on my face now blew the forecast probably i relied on valid model data so oh well?

  127. Tom says:

    todd gross just tweeted “the kids wont be using the sleds they got for xmas next week”

    1. Jay_Jay says:

      No he didn’t.

  128. Topkatt88 says:

    I’m telling ya – this one is going to be in many ways similar to the last one. :-) Except this time not a foot of snow on parts of the Cape due to less retrograde cyclonic looping.

  129. namesake341 says:

    WAIT WHY ISNT THE EURO HAVING THE SAME INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS THEN…DOES IT ONLY EFFECT THE MODELS THAT PREDICT A SNOWSTORM? THE EURO AND NAM ARE SAFE BUT THE JAPANESE GFS AND OTHERS ARE GARBAGE? IM TOTALLY LOST HERE

  130. Andy says:

    topcat what do you think for woburn area?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      At this stage Andy I’m more inclined to go a few inches (say, under 6), and refine it tomorrow. Remember that only a few tenths of an inch of melted precip make a few inches difference in snowfall.

  131. Willy13 says:

    NOT sticking a fork in it until we get consistent model runs. Euro had been consistent all week with a hit until last run. Not buying big storm at this point but not throwing it out either. Topkatt, you weren’t buying the Euro all week which had the hit, now it is out to sea and you are proposing? :)

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      You’re exactly right, Willy13. :-)

  132. firefly says:

    You guys need to read Joyce’s last update. He jumped the gun and now he has backed off.

  133. Steve-O says:

    Topcat…wasnt the Euro in agreement with the GFS a few days ago showing a major hit to southeastern New England?? As a matter of fact, the GFS was amazingly consistent…right or wrong for 2 or 3 days straight showing a major snowstorm for us. Maybe the current version of the Euro will turn out to be right, but my guess is that there will be still be some surprises with this storm.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Yes and I did not put full faith in that Euro run. I said I didn’t fully buy it even though it was my favorite model.

      The Euro got bad initialization a few times this week.

  134. Adam says:

    joe are you still calling for two feet?

  135. Lawrencewx says:

    Wow! An hour ago I read the writtings on the blog and was reading the word “blizzard” from a few! No I am reading a “miss”!
    Yikes
    Poor Joe for jumping the gun too early to make a call!
    Good try though!!
    Oh well!
    Let’s see if it will snow in January!!

  136. snowyman says:

    adam he never called for 2 feet…

  137. Hadi says:

    Topkatt any thought for Maine on the EURO? Thx

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Decent chance of moderate to heavy snow up there Hadi, based on the storm doing a loop near or east of the Gulf of Maine (per Euro).

  138. BaileyMan says:

    ok just corrected my cpu problem and i do have latest euro not buying the east shift and too progressive upper air data in real time synoptic does not add up to the initial set up for today even. im studying current atmospheric/synoptic data this storm will be closer and vortex scenerio too latent responding to upper air dynamical allignment and phasing evolution likely to unfold….not ready to say its a bust yet. rushed at the moment more explanation later

  139. namesake341 says:

    WAIT WHY ISNT THE EURO HAVING THE SAME INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS THEN…DOES IT ONLY EFFECT THE MODELS THAT PREDICT A SNOWSTORM? THE EURO AND NAM ARE SAFE BUT THE JAPANESE GFS AND OTHERS ARE GARBAGE? IM TOTALLY LOST HERE

    ??? will someone address my question please???

  140. Flowergirl says:

    Hi All, a few quick questions: is the 540mb line only on the GFS, or can it be found on the NAM, GEM and EURO models? Also, can someone explain what Windex means (other than a window cleaner!) :) Thanks so much, think snow, and MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!

  141. crashralph says:

    I think its freaking funny that we go from a Blizzard to almost nothing in about 2 half hours. Im going to get drunk at my dads this christmas eve. The models have me dizzy already, Im sick of there constant error’s. Have a great night everyone!!!!

  142. Dppr45 says:

    Read the blog all the time haven’t” left a comment before But Just wanted to thank Joe for the updates and interaction on the blog. He adds a lot to go along with Barry on the storm info.

  143. Merlin says:

    Merry Christmas back at you Joe. 30 inches in Boston!

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