Bands of Light Snow Add Up Overnight

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

Round 2 of snow moving through this afternoon…but this round will last in varying intensity through the overnight hours. The inital band this afternoon is providing steady snow reducing visibility to 1-2 miles as in pushes from NH into Worcester , Norfolk and Plymouth counties. I do not believe we will be seeing a heavy snow for the evening commute. High temps near 40 have warmed the ground enough that light snow will be melting on the pavement ..but as temps drop…snow covered roads will make driving a bit dicey through the late evening hours…especially during the morning commute tomorrow.

The snow will ease up this evening in intensity…light snow/flurries..Heavier  west of Boston…but watch for another band of heavy snow to slide down the coast early tomorrow just before dawn. It will be snowing tomorrow morning at the coast and this could last until 9-10 AM…with additional minor accumulations….but low visibility..and just a few inches can make driving hazardous from the Cape to the South Shore. Expect a slow go.

The forecast is calling for heaviest snow to occur at the coast from the Cape Ann to South Shore to Cape Cod where 3″ of snow is possible with pockets up to 4″ depending on this band in the early morning hours. Boston gets 2″ with surrounding suburbs a general 1-3″ snow fall with less outside 495.

We return to a fair weather pattern with slightly cooler air moving in for Christmas…

We turn our attention to the developing storm for Sunday Night into Monday. This storm is coming in off the Pacific and slamming California with more flooding rain. A state of emergency exists is a few areas with the San Bernardino mountains seeing over 2 FEET of rain! Incredible.  Highest elevations in the Mountains have seen close to 12 FEET of snow . Flash Flooding, Mudslides and Avalanches are of grave concern. This storm will come over the Rockies and then dive south into the Gulf of Mexico, where this will become a moisture loaded storm. The questions remaining of this is the timing of the short waves in the northern stream…and when and where the merge will take place.

After taking the storm in a southern track away from us, The midday GFS had made it’s usual adjustment to track further west again with a 968 mb low south of  Nantucket. The Euro and Canadian models have shown runs that would provide a historic snow storm from the Mid-Atlantic to New England.  Upper level winds from the SW should be able to shoot this storm out of here quickly which should help to keep storm amounts in check…but the potential for over a foot of snow is more than likely. Midday Euro prints out 2-3″ of  moisture with this storm…20-30″ of snow?? Wow. No way am I going there now…but this storm is getting serious and it is going to bomb out south of New England…but where?  More careful attention and analysis will be needed in the coming days as the track continues to adjust.

Comments

One Comment

  1. manowx says:

    JJ,

    Corn snow on Dec 22. Incredible! It wont be long that we can stick a fork in this turkey of a winter Anthropogenic gas ever mounting. Albedo falling. Sun hotter than usual. Global cooling a farce!

  2. manowx says:

    One winter snow storm is no indication of the severity of a winter. I can’t stress enough

  3. Old Salty says:

    On the Weekend Storm Potential, words from the NWS:

    CAUTION IS ADVISED IN LITERAL MODEL INTERPRETATION AT THIS
    POINT…AS WE ARE AT LEAST FOUR DAYS AWAY FROM THE POTENTIAL EVENT.
    THE MODEL ITERATIONS EACH RUN WILL LIKELY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY OVER
    THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN THE TYPICAL PHASING PROBLEMS THE
    OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE REGARDING SPLIT JET STREAM PATTERNS. STAY
    TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND.

  4. manowx says:

    We are nearing the 30 year anniversary of the christmas day arctic blast. Teens below zero for lows. Highs in the single digits below zero. Windchills to 70 below zero. Unlikely to see anything close to that in our lifetimes

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Yes we are because I was alive for that one. So I saw it in my lifetime. High temp on Christmas Day 1980 was -4 at my house.

  5. RexRyan says:

    JJ, is there any chance the low can stall south of new england because of the blocking? curious if that potential even exists…..thanks for the update! You are very good at providing updates on this blog…

  6. Scott says:

    i’ll be fine with 20 to 30 inches of snow :)
    sure is going to get icy later tonight

  7. manowx says:

    I cant wait for thunderstorm season.

  8. southshoretom says:

    if you want an extension of the radar into eastern Canada…..google Halifax, Nova Scotia Radar……fairly intense bands of precip in Nova Scotia moving west-southwestward.

  9. Longshot says:

    To: Joe Joyce

    Time for the BZ weather team to arrange for one of our live chats.

  10. metking says:

    Good take by joe there, that feature to the sw should eliminate the stalling we saw depicted this morning. Look for a quicker mover than earlier forecast. I don’t really see anythign that would impede progression. Does anyone else? Topkatt?

  11. JimmyJames says:

    This low has now where to go and is sending in these snow bands with the final one happening now. Manowx thunderstorm season will be here before you know the way times seems to fly by and I like the thunderstorms but I want to see some good snowstorms before we get there.

  12. Old Salty says:

    Well…just a thought.

    It could get stacked in the atmosphere. Looking at the 12Z GFS, at 120 hours,
    I see closed LOWS at 500,300,250 and 200 MBs. Seems to me, this could cause some stalling of the system???

  13. rightstuff says:

    JimmyJames,

    If you are saying the final band is coming down now, do you mean this will be over today sooner than the mets are telling us? Thanks. Would love it if I could shovel before work tomorrow and not have more snow falling…that drives me nuts.

  14. hcarool says:

    I thought the midday Euro took the precipitation offshore, but now that Joe has mentioned that it didn’t I am confused.

  15. JimmyJames says:

    Metking I always thought we were getting to get something from this system and my thinking has not changed. Even if it is not a long duration event if you get some good heavy banding of snow to move over the area and if its the powdery type you could get well over a foot of snow very easily. I remember back in February 2006 where NYC had there biggest snowfall on record with that storm of 26.9 inches and the snow last for only 12 hours.

  16. minercat says:

    take note…now for this storm they are predicting:
    THE MODEL ITERATIONS EACH RUN WILL LIKELY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY OVER
    THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN THE TYPICAL PHASING PROBLEMS THE
    OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE REGARDING SPLIT JET STREAM PATTERNS
    …really?

  17. JimmyJames says:

    RIghtstuff I think once that band from northern Maine comes through that should put an end to this but I would expect the snow to continue for a good part of the overnight of varying intensity. I am sticking with a 1 on the SNOW INDEX meaning MINOR snowfall of 4 inches or less.

  18. alisonarod says:

    Hi Everyone. I’m back. This impending storm should be an interesting one. I recall last week that I called for a big snow storm for eastern new england and while it did not occur the way I projected, some portions of the area received a foot. The models did not seem to pick up on the westward retrograding movement of the low. People mocked me for thinking we would get more than models projected. But again, models cannot be solely relied upon. One must use “brainpower” and analyze the ingredients that mother nature has provided for us. Looking ahead to this weekend’s storm has me more concerned. This go around, the pattern should be more amplifed allowing for earlier phasing to occur between the energy coming from the north and that of the south. Hence, a more western and deeper solution can be expected. It is my prediction that we will get a significant impact from this storm. The models will go back and forth but again, we cannot rely solely on the models. Some people learned there listen this go around. I lived in New England far too long and have learned that lesson before. Happy and healthy holidays to all!

  19. southshoretom says:

    would be interested to hear from anyone who lives around 495 southeast of Worcester. Looks like a heavy band of snow falling over that area.

  20. retrac says:

    alisonarod!……my blankie

  21. js81 says:

    Great Explanation. You simplified it nicely for us novices!

  22. manowx says:

    Because the cold air associated with the hp to the nw is not overwhelming, a broad cylconic circulation can develop such as occurred with its predecessor in the maritimes. The teleconnection looks good, not great; but intensification does occur earlier and south. The opportunity for more widespread heavier snow looks good. Still looks like a coastal special with the heaviest over southeast MA. It pains me to type this.

  23. manowx says:

    This winter will be over before you know it.

  24. southshoretom says:

    sun is about to set…..nowcasting a bit off of the NWS radar, there is an impressive band of snow hitting the southern part of 495 and its surrounding communities. There are 2 band of lighter snow just to the northeast of the northshore that appear to be very slowly intensifying. With darkness will come quickly deteoriorating road condititons.

  25. manowx says:

    Based on the teleconnection, a miss is unlikely

  26. retrac says:

    Margusity just posted….all bets are off.

    1. alisonarod says:

      What do you mean by my blinkie? Lol.

      1. retrac says:

        even though I give you a hard time on occasion you’re still my security blanket….you know……..blankie!

    2. alisonarod says:

      I appreciate that. I don’t mind you giving me a hard time. I think it’s fun, especially following these storms. We ALL are wrong at times. I’ll be wrong again.

  27. Longshot says:

    Henry M’s snow map.

    http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/43380/euro-and-gfs-both-go-to-the-big-storm.asp

    With the Henry model in play, you can now count on a complete miss.

    1. retrac says:

      Got that right Longshot. Get your sunscreen out for Monday

      1. shotime says:

        Awe, come on guys! Henry’s got to be right one of these times! Maybe, just maybe it’ll be this time. One can only HOPE!!!!!

  28. Scott says:

    snow starting up again on the northshore, almost squall like. sticking fast

  29. RexRyan says:

    HM’s call for a big daddy, means a big daddy beach day….

  30. Old Salty says:

    Does Henry seriously think that 6 inches of snow equates to big daddy.
    6 inches of snow is merely a nuisance around here!!

    I wouldn’t be worried about a miss, unless the map had 1-2 foot amounts.

    1. Tim Foley says:

      his maps dont show 6+ inches. just preliminary estimates

  31. retrac says:

    Seriously…..6″ for me in Worcester is a passing snowshower. If H.M. pushes this out to sea I’m gonna have to fire up my home snow gun. It just doesn’t want to snow here in Worcester. Even this squall is stalled basically a few miles to the east.

  32. Longshot says:

    Old Salty / retrac,

    The Henry snow map actually says 6+” so you can now write the storm off.

    http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/43380/euro-and-gfs-both-go-to-the-big-storm.asp

  33. retrac says:

    thanks Lonshot. I was going to stop for gas for the snowblower on the way home tomorrow now I don’t have to! more time to last minute shop!

  34. retrac says:

    Geez…..NAM has this developing in the Gulf.

  35. alisonarod says:

    The storm coming in from the pacific is expected to take more of a southerly track, picking up moisture from the gulf and riding up the coast like a miller type A storm which means this storm will be loaded. Yet, how close will it come. Again, a more amplified, deeper and westward trajectory could be expected. We’ll see.

  36. Old Salty says:

    Yes, just like the 12Z GFS and that blew it up off shore.
    NAM upper winds at 84 hours similar to GFS at 96 hours, so I am guessing
    NAM will take it on a similar path as the GFS.

    Need a few more runs.

  37. Scott says:

    atleast i get to see some snow tonight. cant see the tv mets forecasts cause Obama is making a speech…hopefully that ends soon

  38. alisonarod says:

    This is an entirely different set up this time around.

  39. RexRyan says:

    18Z DGEX well OTS

  40. Longshot says:

    Tonight and tomorrow:

    Bouchard: 1-3″
    Todd: 1-4″

  41. alisonarod says:

    This storm was supposed to be well OTS and is still hitting us x 3 days. Portions of eastern ma will exceed 15 inches when all is set and done. Do not be fixated on the models:)

  42. matt says:

    i would love a 2 foot snow fall. i just do not see that in the models. once so ever.

  43. alisonarod says:

    Matt, they didnt’ see this snow and the one foot of snow that southeastern ma got in the models neither, lol.

  44. Longshot says:

    Now for the most important question.

    Has anyone had any experience with an electric snow blower sometimes called an electric snow shovel? They are made by Toro.

    Thanks.

    1. retrac says:

      don’t think they’re good for heavy duty stuff-not enough torque. than again, might be perfect for this winter.

      1. Longshot says:

        Thanks

    2. shotime says:

      Yes Longshot, I own one. I have the Truro 1800 Power Curve (earlier model). It’s a decent machine for fluffy snow amounts of 6” or under. Its throwing capability is acceptable, but not 30’ as advertised. I might add on a windy day I look like the Abominable Snowman, covered from head to toe in snow! I noticed the newer models has some good upgrades like larger wheels which is a plus. Bottom line… I don’t regret buying it, but unfortunately I can only use it for about 50% of our snow events which is why I’m in the market for a small snow blower.

      1. Longshot says:

        Thanks.

  45. Longshot says:

    Todd: put 3 tracks up on the map and said “some” snow seems likely.

    1. snowyman says:

      link please

  46. Scott says:

    pete B is already throwing out the hype flag

  47. alisonarod says:

    As rocky balboa’s coach said, “Hit the one in the middle Rock, hit the one in the middle.” Lol. (track that is)

  48. metking says:

    Again, I just don’t see it the dgex gives me more confidence. but the pieces aren’t all there this time. Too bad bc with gulf moisture it might be even more potent than I had figured earlier. No high to the north? Doesn’t that have anyones attention!?

  49. retrac says:

    has my attention metking. that’s what was missing all last winter and we all remember last winter.

  50. alisonarod says:

    No high to the north allows for storms to pass over the benchmark. I understand that the lack of a cold high can create precipitation issues. However, a strong cold high to the north can also shut storms out to sea. Well plenty of cold air in place and a weakening and retrograding of the greenland block plus a negative NAO means a more westward solution is plausible. Again, don’t rely on the models entirely.

  51. Scott says:

    wouldn’t be surprised if winter weather advisory’s go up tonight.
    the 18z GFS is almost exact to the 12z run, but its precip seems a bit undone.

    1. Steve says:

      What do you mean more snow? Do you have a link?

  52. crashralph says:

    So had seen that Joe Joyce had worte the possibility of 20″ to 30″ is that true. I’ve been working all day so I had not seen the model outputs today. Thanks for any update!!!

  53. alisonarod says:

    The models still have not converged on a single solution. The EURO still consistently takes a bomb over or just east of the benchmark while the operational GFS and some of its ensembles are still too far east. Yet the latest GFS brings the low a bit more west than its predecessors. The GGEM has SNE getting hit hard with heavy snow while the NAM still has the storm as a miss. We’ll just have to see but the ingredients are in place for a more westward solution than this current storm.

  54. Kat says:

    I don’t know….my bones aren’t aching the way they normally would for a biggie…..tee hee hee.

    1. shotime says:

      Kat, I was a tad achy today, but I contribute that to the current event. My arthritis won’t act up until a day or two before an event, so it’s too soon for me to use that as my weather barometer.

    2. Topkatt88 says:

      Kat I trust your bones over the computers lately… Now I know why when I was looking at the ranks for model performance the other day there was no #1 listed. The Euro was #2 and the GFS was #53 or something. Your bones must be #1. ;-)

  55. Longshot says:

    Pete B; In places we get hit by snow “up to 1 foot.”

  56. Scott says:

    if this storm hits us with all its might, that “up to 1 foot” would be a laugh

  57. WeatherWizard says:

    Latest from NWS in Taunton:
    SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY…POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
    STORM OVER AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MODELS STARTING
    TO SIGNAL SOMEWHAT BETTER CONTINUITY IN DIGGING OUT A LONG WAVE
    TROUGH…WHICH WOULD THEN DEEPEN A POSSIBLE SURFACE SYSTEM OFF THE
    SE U.S. COAST. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING
    AND THE TRACK UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

    LOOKING AT THE 12Z SUITE…THE BIGGEST CHANGE NOTED WAS ON THE 12Z
    OP GFS RUN AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND ENSEMBLE MEAN…ALL OF
    WHICH HAVE MOVED THE SYSTEM FURTHER W FROM ITS LAST TWO RUNS AS WELL
    AS CARRYING A DEEPER SYSTEM. THE GFS ALSO HAS DEVELOPED A STRONG
    CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND…DIGGING A DEEP
    TROUGH ACROSS FLORIDA. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE SOMEWHAT IN LINE
    WITH THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS…ESPECIALLY AT
    THE UPPER LEVELS. HOWEVER…WHILE THE GFS TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE
    REGION…IT CURRENTLY REMAINS ABOUT 75 NM SE OF THE 40/70
    BENCHMARK…WHICH MAKES ITS SOLUTION THE WESTERN OUTLIER. A COUPLE
    OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ACTUALLY TRACK THE LOW INSIDE THE
    BENCHMARK. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN LOW CENTER IS RATHER CLOSE…THOUGH
    JUST A BIT OUTSIDE THE OP RUN.

    THE GFS CHANGE GIVES CAUSE FOR CONCERN…AS THIS APPEARS TO BE
    COMING IN LINE WITH THE STRONGER ECMWF THOUGH THEIR TRACKS ARE FAR
    DIFFERENT. THE CANADIAN GGEM REMAINS RATHER WEAK AND TAKES THE LOW
    FURTHER SE OF THE BENCHMARK. SO…A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF
    CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
    SYSTEM AS WELL AS ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

    THERE IS STILL A LOT OF TIME TO LOOK AT FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND SEE IF
    THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE OR IF THEY CONTINUE TO CHANGE. ONE THING
    DOES LOOK RATHER CERTAIN…THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT LIKELIHOOD
    THAT AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ACROSS RI AND E
    MA BY LATE SUNDAY…CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER ASPECT WILL
    BE WHETHER ENOUGH MILD MARITIME AIR WORKS INTO THE SYSTEM TO BRING A
    MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST. ONE OTHER POSSIBLE PROBLEM…THE GFS
    SOLUTION SUGGESTS VERY STRONG N-NE WINDS DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
    MONDAY…POSSIBLY TO AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL.

    AT THIS POINT…HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS ACROSS E MA INTO RI…
    FROM ABOUT BOSTON TO WESTERLY RI EASTWARD…WHILE KEEPING CHANCE
    POPS GOING ELSEWHERE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AT LEAST.
    APPEARS THE LOW WILL MOVE NE DURING MONDAY…SO PRECIP SHOULD
    DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT LEFTOVER SNOW OR
    SNOW SHOWERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LEFTOVER MOISTURE ROTATING
    AROUND THE STRONG LOW…IF IT DEVELOPS.

    CAUTION IS ADVISED IN LITERAL MODEL INTERPRETATION AT THIS POINT.
    THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS FROM THE POTENTIAL EVENT. EACH MODEL
    RUN ITERATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
    OF DAYS GIVEN THE TYPICAL PHASING PROBLEMS THAT THE OPERATIONAL
    MODELS HAVE REGARDING SPLIT JET STREAM PATTERNS. STAY TUNED TO THE
    LATEST FORECASTS FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

  58. Ed says:

    Paul Kocin calling for a storm of historic proportions,paul said somebody in southern ne will see 50 inches

    1. jef3 says:

      He’s nuts. Always thought he was.

  59. Ed says:

    his exact words were HISTORIC MAGNITUDE

  60. JimmyJames says:

    Confidence seems to be growing that a storm will impact us one way or another. I hope this one gets us because it looks like a warmup may happen late next week.

  61. JimmyJames says:

    Hey Ed can you post a link to what Paul Kocin said. I would very much like to read it.

  62. Ed says:

    Jimmy the weather channel just talked to Paul live via telephone and they put it on the air,paul talked for a few minutes about the storm ,weather channel contacted him

  63. Zack says:

    High pressure to the north is not the only placement of the high that leads to a major snowfall. . If a strong high is present in the midwest this acts as a cold air extension. This acts as reinforcing shot of cold air from the Great Lakes due to winds from the north. North winds allow for cold advection at the surface supporting frozen precipitation, not to mention this counteracts the warm wedge. And if one looks at the charts, we have a strong high in the midwest…

  64. Ed says:

    paul says this very well could be worse than the 2005 blizzard because the snow will be hevier ,he also said loss of life will be a factor if people dont take precautions ,with xmas the day before people might be on the roads and unaware how conditions will detiorate

  65. JimmyJames says:

    Thanks Ed and if what Paul said happens it will be one for the record books but lets hold off on saying that until we get closer.

  66. Longshot says:

    Zack, thanks for the input. I think metking was asking the same. Since I first began to learn about winter weather from Don Kent, I have assumed the high to the north was an absolute requirement.

  67. Topkatt88 says:

    I used to be a big Kocin fan. Not anymore. He’s lost credibility and I could outforecast him with my eyes closed.

    Hi all. Busy. Not alot of time to blog. Christmas is coming and my son comes first. :-)

    1-3 sounds good for tonight/tomorrow morning. Not hard to deal with at all in general.

    The big one? Yeah, if you live over the ocean. I don’t think we’re going to get the full impact of that one either. It’s going south and east, too far, to be a big dumper for SNE. Anyway, lots of time left so anything’s possible, right?

    I’ll let the new blog met’s handle this one. ;-) Their writings are far more lengthy and elaborate than mine and should make for some very interesting reading.

    Good evening all!

  68. jon says:

    So I know it is early but for sense of need to prepare what percentage are we putting on a big storm / historic storm

  69. alisonarod says:

    TK. You’re excellent at what you do and well respected. This last storm however was supposed to a miss but “indirectly” clobbered parts of the area and that was NOT forecasted. The models blew that one.

  70. hcarool says:

    Topkatt88, how are you already able to pin point the track this far out?

  71. Zack says:

    No dount the Ontario high is the best and the most common, but there have been several Nor’easter’s in which the cold air was re-enforced by the midwest extension. The best cold air damning (cold air more dense, cannot rise over Adirondacks, so it floods south along the mountains. The less dense more unstable air rises over this and New England stays snow) occurs with this. However because the anticyclone is strong in the midwest, the clockwise circulation of air around it will supply the cold.

  72. DannyBoy says:

    No one on here think Ed is serious, do they? Because he’s not.

  73. alisonarod says:

    60/40 with growing confidence

  74. retrac says:

    Bernie Rayno has a very good new post on Accuweather and talks about the problem of no high pressure to the north that I harped about last week and am harping about with this one

  75. Creed says:

    Welcome back Topcatt! I was waiting for you to chime in on this weekends possible storm. I appreciate your patience before reacting to the HYPE.

  76. jef3 says:

    “The Euro and Canadian models have shown runs that would provide a historic snow storm from the Mid-Atlantic to New England.” And yet again Joyce focusses on the hype.

    1. Chris says:

      He doesn’t say that we are getting a historic snow fall though. He simply said what the models showed before explaining more attention and analysis is needed

      1. jef3 says:

        cuz he doesn’t have a clue and never does.

  77. CalciumMagnesiumAcetate says:

    TopKatt can kinda accurately predict the storm because hes not on TV. I’m positive guys on the TV play most things up and if there’s ever even a remote chance of something big they tend to mention it more times that it often warrants. A lot of people also only hear the possible outcomes and tune out the other information. This is also a more informed audience here. We may not all be mets but we all shar an interest in weather. People on TV hear “possibility for a foot of snow” and if it doesn’t come they just give the old “Man if I was as bad at my job as a meteorologist….” Without realizing how many factors weigh into an accurate forecast. I think when you predict a forming storm 3,000 miles away and where it will be to within 50 miles or so 5 days out you’re doing something pretty impressive.

    1. retrac says:

      Well said! Cheers CMA.

    2. adam says:

      Please understand that the models said this current storm would be a complete miss yet parts of eastern ma got over a foot of snow. Some of the METS turned out to be right. Just an afterthought. Cannot rely on the models solely without considering other factors.

  78. malcolm says:

    The big storm will not happen, but the media will focus on it for days just to work up some panic. Gotta get that bread and milk.

  79. haterain says:

    Topkatt,are you somewhere between the Euro and GFS? The Euro has been consistent but it sounds like you are somewhat dismissing it. What is your basis? Trust me you are probably right, I am just curious of what you are seeing. When you get a chance…

  80. Topkatt88 says:

    alisonarod… Thanks! This storm on Monday was probably only about 35 miles further west than I thought it was going to be. And did you see the difference that made in snowfall on the Cape? If that isn’t an example of the inexactness of this science, nothing is.

    hcarool… I can’t. It’s impossible. I’m just giving my early thoughts on the most likely scenario.

    Creed… Thanks! I’ll be blogging more, just not frequently the next couple days. I was kidding when I made it sound like I wasn’t going to chime in..lol!

    haterain… At the moment, yes. I think the Euro may be just a SHADE too far northwest. But not by much.

  81. adam says:

    I love TK and he knows more about meteorology than I will ever know, yet, he called for a complete miss for SNE this go around and parts of southeast ma got over a foot. He relied solely on the models which turned out to be a huge error.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Go back and read. I never called for a complete miss. But I did very much underestimate Cape Cod’s snow. Big time.

      1. bluebelle says:

        yup you did.

  82. adam says:

    TK. You’re right. 35 miles doesn’t sound like much but it makes a gigantic difference. These models will rarely be perfect. And that is my only point. I enjoy reading your posts:)

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Thanks Adam!

  83. Ed says:

    thank god barry will be in sunday to cover the storm

  84. Omegablock says:

    Here is a question I don’t think has been answered. Which model was spot on at which run in the 5-7 day time frame for the past storm?

  85. smar says:

    Adam
    TK did not go with the models. When the models were all saying we ALL were going to get nailed by the last storm he said just a little for the cape. He never went back and forth on his forecast. To say he relied on the models is totally false.

  86. Craig@northeastweathereye.com says:

    Anyone here from the South Shore ?? It will be amazing to see the qpf output for the South Shore and what the seas will be like as to coastal flooding and coastal battering..we just passed a lunar eclipse and all..and the tides have been high along the Eastern Mass coast for the past week..Like Paul Kocin’s words Historic

  87. Creed says:

    Yet another snow contractor following this site, My weather service is calling for steadier snow falling between12-3 am additional 1-3 iches thru 8 am. This would put us in the 4-6″ range for the Hudson, Ma area. Any thoughts?

  88. leo says:

    Almost an inch here in East Bridgewater and a nice steady band moving through now. This type of snowfall would have been perfect for Christmas Eve, a nice steady light snow all night long. Looking forward to this possible big event Sunday night and Monday. I think it will be big!

  89. Longshot says:

    On to next blog.

  90. crashralph says:

    Someone is getting a little arrogant!!!!!

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