Bands of Light Snow Add Up Overnight

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

December 22, 2010 3:03 PM

Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV meteorologist

Reporting Joe Joyce

Filed under

Blogs, Weather

Round 2 of snow moving through this afternoon…but this round will last in varying intensity through the overnight hours. The inital band this afternoon is providing steady snow reducing visibility to 1-2 miles as in pushes from NH into Worcester , Norfolk and Plymouth counties. I do not believe we will be seeing a heavy snow for the evening commute. High temps near 40 have warmed the ground enough that light snow will be melting on the pavement ..but as temps drop…snow covered roads will make driving a bit dicey through the late evening hours…especially during the morning commute tomorrow.

The snow will ease up this evening in intensity…light snow/flurries..Heavier west of Boston…but watch for another band of heavy snow to slide down the coast early tomorrow just before dawn. It will be snowing tomorrow morning at the coast and this could last until 9-10 AM…with additional minor accumulations….but low visibility..and just a few inches can make driving hazardous from the Cape to the South Shore. Expect a slow go.

The forecast is calling for heaviest snow to occur at the coast from the Cape Ann to South Shore to Cape Cod where 3″ of snow is possible with pockets up to 4″ depending on this band in the early morning hours. Boston gets 2″ with surrounding suburbs a general 1-3″ snow fall with less outside 495.

We return to a fair weather pattern with slightly cooler air moving in for Christmas…

We turn our attention to the developing storm for Sunday Night into Monday. This storm is coming in off the Pacific and slamming California with more flooding rain. A state of emergency exists is a few areas with the San Bernardino mountains seeing over 2 FEET of rain! Incredible. Highest elevations in the Mountains have seen close to 12 FEET of snow . Flash Flooding, Mudslides and Avalanches are of grave concern. This storm will come over the Rockies and then dive south into the Gulf of Mexico, where this will become a moisture loaded storm. The questions remaining of this is the timing of the short waves in the northern stream…and when and where the merge will take place.

After taking the storm in a southern track away from us, The midday GFS had made it’s usual adjustment to track further west again with a 968 mb low south of Nantucket. The Euro and Canadian models have shown runs that would provide a historic snow storm from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. Upper level winds from the SW should be able to shoot this storm out of here quickly which should help to keep storm amounts in check…but the potential for over a foot of snow is more than likely. Midday Euro prints out 2-3″ of moisture with this storm…20-30″ of snow?? Wow. No way am I going there now…but this storm is getting serious and it is going to bomb out south of New England…but where? More careful attention and analysis will be needed in the coming days as the track continues to adjust.

manowx

JJ,

Corn snow on Dec 22. Incredible! It wont be long that we can stick a fork in this turkey of a winter Anthropogenic gas ever mounting. Albedo falling. Sun hotter than usual. Global cooling a farce!
manowx

One winter snow storm is no indication of the severity of a winter. I can’t stress enough
Old Salty

On the Weekend Storm Potential, words from the NWS:

CAUTION IS ADVISED IN LITERAL MODEL INTERPRETATION AT THIS
POINT…AS WE ARE AT LEAST FOUR DAYS AWAY FROM THE POTENTIAL EVENT.
THE MODEL ITERATIONS EACH RUN WILL LIKELY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN THE TYPICAL PHASING PROBLEMS THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE REGARDING SPLIT JET STREAM PATTERNS. STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND.
manowx

We are nearing the 30 year anniversary of the christmas day arctic blast. Teens below zero for lows. Highs in the single digits below zero. Windchills to 70 below zero. Unlikely to see anything close to that in our lifetimes

Topkatt88

Yes we are because I was alive for that one. So I saw it in my lifetime. High temp on Christmas Day 1980 was -4 at my house.

RexRyan

JJ, is there any chance the low can stall south of new england because of the blocking? curious if that potential even exists…..thanks for the update! You are very good at providing updates on this blog…
Scott

i’ll be fine with 20 to 30 inches of snow :)
sure is going to get icy later tonight
manowx

I cant wait for thunderstorm season.
southshoretom

if you want an extension of the radar into eastern Canada…..google Halifax, Nova Scotia Radar……fairly intense bands of precip in Nova Scotia moving west-southwestward.
Longshot

To: Joe Joyce

Time for the BZ weather team to arrange for one of our live chats.
metking

Good take by joe there, that feature to the sw should eliminate the stalling we saw depicted this morning. Look for a quicker mover than earlier forecast. I don’t really see anythign that would impede progression. Does anyone else? Topkatt?
JimmyJames

This low has now where to go and is sending in these snow bands with the final one happening now. Manowx thunderstorm season will be here before you know the way times seems to fly by and I like the thunderstorms but I want to see some good snowstorms before we get there.
Old Salty

Well…just a thought.

It could get stacked in the atmosphere. Looking at the 12Z GFS, at 120 hours,
I see closed LOWS at 500,300,250 and 200 MBs. Seems to me, this could cause some stalling of the system???
rightstuff

JimmyJames,

If you are saying the final band is coming down now, do you mean this will be over today sooner than the mets are telling us? Thanks. Would love it if I could shovel before work tomorrow and not have more snow falling…that drives me nuts.
hcarool

I thought the midday Euro took the precipitation offshore, but now that Joe has mentioned that it didn’t I am confused.
JimmyJames

Metking I always thought we were getting to get something from this system and my thinking has not changed. Even if it is not a long duration event if you get some good heavy banding of snow to move over the area and if its the powdery type you could get well over a foot of snow very easily. I remember back in February 2006 where NYC had there biggest snowfall on record with that storm of 26.9 inches and the snow last for only 12 hours.
minercat

take note…now for this storm they are predicting:
THE MODEL ITERATIONS EACH RUN WILL LIKELY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN THE TYPICAL PHASING PROBLEMS THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE REGARDING SPLIT JET STREAM PATTERNS
…really?
JimmyJames

RIghtstuff I think once that band from northern Maine comes through that should put an end to this but I would expect the snow to continue for a good part of the overnight of varying intensity. I am sticking with a 1 on the SNOW INDEX meaning MINOR snowfall of 4 inches or less.
alisonarod

Hi Everyone. I’m back. This impending storm should be an interesting one. I recall last week that I called for a big snow storm for eastern new england and while it did not occur the way I projected, some portions of the area received a foot. The models did not seem to pick up on the westward retrograding movement of the low. People mocked me for thinking we would get more than models projected. But again, models cannot be solely relied upon. One must use “brainpower” and analyze the ingredients that mother nature has provided for us. Looking ahead to this weekend’s storm has me more concerned. This go around, the pattern should be more amplifed allowing for earlier phasing to occur between the energy coming from the north and that of the south. Hence, a more western and deeper solution can be expected. It is my prediction that we will get a significant impact from this storm. The models will go back and forth but again, we cannot rely solely on the models. Some people learned there listen this go around. I lived in New England far too long and have learned that lesson before. Happy and healthy holidays to all!
southshoretom

would be interested to hear from anyone who lives around 495 southeast of Worcester. Looks like a heavy band of snow falling over that area.
retrac

alisonarod!……my blankie
js81

Great Explanation. You simplified it nicely for us novices!
manowx

Because the cold air associated with the hp to the nw is not overwhelming, a broad cylconic circulation can develop such as occurred with its predecessor in the maritimes. The teleconnection looks good, not great; but intensification does occur earlier and south. The opportunity for more widespread heavier snow looks good. Still looks like a coastal special with the heaviest over southeast MA. It pains me to type this.
manowx

This winter will be over before you know it.
southshoretom

sun is about to set…..nowcasting a bit off of the NWS radar, there is an impressive band of snow hitting the southern part of 495 and its surrounding communities. There are 2 band of lighter snow just to the northeast of the northshore that appear to be very slowly intensifying. With darkness will come quickly deteoriorating road condititons.
manowx

Based on the teleconnection, a miss is unlikely