Mother Nature throws a mean curve ball doesn’t she? I told you I was waiting for the curve. I just knew this storm was going to find away to bite us in the end. And So it has. 10″ Wellfleet, 9″ in Orleans and Chatham…with the National Seashore likely to see upto a foot before this over. Wow. It is amazing what just a few miles in track to the west has done. 6-12″ of snow on the Cape with winds upto 40-45 mph tonight. Near Blizzard conditions with numerous power outages being reported. Yep..did not see that happening. S now we are in nowcasting mode..doing play by play.
As we track a significant deformation band backing into towards the coast this evening. This band will provide snowfall rates upto and 1-2″ per hour along the coast producing whiteouts and blowing snow thanks to gusting winds which have been confined to the coast. Cape Ann has seen 3″ of snow and they could very well see another 3-4″ before the night is all over with. Winter weather advisories have been expanded north into Essex county
This band of snow will hit the coast and stall, then weaken through the evening hours. Advisories have been extended by the National weather service until 5 AM. Winter Storm warning now extends up the South Shore to now include all of eastern Plymouth county where up to 4-8″ of snow will fall…heaviest at the coast…
Steady snow through midnight…but a lesser intensity through the overnight with snow showers. It could very well still be snowing at the coast for the morning commute…in areas which are seeing the heaviest snow tonight. Expect more delays/accidents and spin outs as people practice their winter driving skills. A definite learning curve is involved! Cold air at the surface is allowing for snow to stick on the pavement with most roads snow covered now. Slippery!
Warm air wrapping around the deepening low offshore will cause for warm advection snow showers through Tuesday morning. Winds will continue to wrap around this low tomorrow out of the NW with gusts to 30-40+ mph at the coast.
Timing the periodic wrap around snow showers seems a bit futile at this point..but scattered snow showers will still be possible through Tuesday night and Wednesday…mostly in the north and at the coast as our storm pulls away. Seas will build up to 10-15 feet off the coast by midweek so the big waves will cause some beach erosion with these high astronomical tides.
We will catch a break with some fair weather Thursday-Christmas with below normal temps…but the potential for a significant nor’easter is still very much on the table for the day after Christmas the 26th. Once again it will all depend upon phasing of the northern and southern streams. We have seen several model runs showing this storm now. It is loaded with energy as it will cross the nation creating travel problems where ever it goes. It will track across the southern US before the Polar jet will infuse a new piece of energy into the trough which will merge together across the Mid-Atlantic and help form as strong storm once it hits the coast and moves towards the benchmark.
It looks plenty cold for a very heavy snowfall across New England…but it is still 6 days away…timing and track are still up for grabs…some ensembles show the storm missing south…so every possibilty needs to remain on the table. As we saw with this current storm…we will have to watch the changes to the very end…and then even during the storm.. there will be changes and challenges to adjust to. I think I am going to be very very busy over this Christmas. Stay safe out there!