Staying the Course…Waiting for the Curve

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

Whew! This storm has been a real nail biter considering the overall impact it is going to have. We know the story with last night’s run of of the NAM which trended further west and continues to provide heavy amounts of precip in it’s latest run. The lesson we have learned is how futile it is to try forecast snow accumulations and snow rain lines outside of 48 hours…and the importance of not jumping onto every model run. It will drive you nuts!  

Unfortunately, the media beast demands to be fed…and that may cause us as TV meteorologists to stick our necks further out than we might otherwise like to do. Here we are within 24 hours and there are still questions on what is exactly going to happen…Granted, Some storms can have more consistency and model agreement which can allow for a fairly accurate estimate more than 48 hours our..but that is the exception. This time around it is just a matter of being patient, watching the block and upper level winds, and simply letting time run it’s course with the approaching storm. Well, time is up…and we need to start nailing this down. There will be an element of play by play from here on out.

The thing that is catching my eye this morning, is the band of rain and snow south of Long Island this morning. Dry air in the low levels continues to eat away at this precipitation field as it approaches the south coast. A lot of this is Virga. It is hitting a wall of dry air with dewpoints in the teens. This will take much of the day, but by mid afternoon we could start to see a few light showers reaching the south coast with temps near 40.

Clouds are quickly filling in today with skies becoming cloudy. These clouds will thicken and lower into the evening hours. N0rthern New England is looking at a nice day with increasing afternoon cloudiness. Besides the western leaning NAM…most computer guidance including the 12Z GFS continue to take this storm far enough off the coast to just graze southeastern MA tonight into tomorrow..especially the Cape and the Islands.

The east coast trough will start to deepen as another short wave spills into to it today, helping to form an upper low south of New England. This will cause the low off our coast to rapidly start to deepen..but just too far away from us….keeping the heaviest precipitation and lift offshore. Still, it is the NW fringe of this storm which will clip Southeast MA tonight…possibly helped out with some ocean effect snow.

A few flurries have been flying at the coast already this morning. This morning I called for a dusting from Providence to Boston, D-1″ ..Plymouth to Newport, and 1-4″ for the Cape & Islands.  The 4″ is only if ocean effect banding sets up. It is important to note…The boundary layer will start out warm initially for showers on the Cape but will eventually transition to snow overnight once winds shift to the NNW. I feel OK about those numbers…but feel Plymouth county could see up to 2+” if any banding sets up between the cold and the warm boundary which could put heavier snow near the Bourne Bridge. But So far the  QPF’s have been heavier on the outer Cape. Once we change back to snow…accums should start to add up a bit more on the Cape by Monday. So I am Sticking with it…but if rain hold on a bit longer the numbers may be too high.

As the jetstream begins to turn negative, This low will then turn back towards Nova Scotia and start to wrap around warm air in from the Maritimes and form a convective band of snow showers which will back into Northern New England then shift south. The timing of this band has been a bit up in the air…but it appears Tuesday Afternoon into Wednesday we could see a period of light accumulating snow push through..with nothing more than and D-2″ at the most.  Once again..mainly just snow showers enough to accumulate on the grass but not affect travel. 

Cold dry air to follow for the end of the week. Will be eyeing a major storm which is currently slamming California with inches of rain and feet of snow in the Sierra Nevadas. This will take the entire week to move across the nation. This storm will deposit heavy snows on the northern side of it’s track and create delays for midwestern airports in the days before Christmas.

This will be a major storm which will likely track south of New England Late on Christmas day into the day after with the potential for heavy snow and wind. Where have we heard that before? No, but really! We may have a shot with this one! ;) lol.  So before the week is through…we just may have a white Christmas yet!

Comments

One Comment

  1. Scott says:

    any chance in the NAM’s QPF actually verifying?
    hopefully the 12z EURO shows a storm on the benchmark for next weekend

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      No chance on the NAM’s QPF.
      Convective feedback.

  2. Ron says:

    How in the world are we going to have a white xmas with what you just said joe? next weeks storm is the day after x mas. not sure you know what your talking about

    1. Longshot says:

      Ron, I asked the same question of Topkatt on the previous blog. If you’re interested, Topkatt’s response was posted at 10:54 am.

  3. southshoretom says:

    think radar in Taunton is set in sensitive mode. looks threatening here by the ocean. May start to spit sprinkles or flurries soon.

  4. Uncover says:

    Let’s settle down with the rude comments, Ron. Your question was reasonable – no need for the last sentence.

  5. joejoycewbz says:

    Actually Ron…I know fully what I am talking about. A chance of light snow during the midweek and a major storm for Christmas night and the day after..
    If snow falls of Christmas night…doesn’t that make it a white Christmas?
    What happens if the storm speeds up by just a few hours?? The timing is certainly not nailed down this far out. The chance is there. I am not saying it is going to happen.

    1. carrie says:

      Joe-pay no attention to the negative comments-you have been in the business a good number of years and always do the best-keep up the great work,professionalism and great smile-just passed the second year anniversary of the ice storm-kinda glad no big storm hit this week-very lateChristmas night would be ok-I really think Mother Nature is giving us a gift this winter-just easy cruising thru winter-no blockbusters-Joe-one of the best in the business-

  6. RMB says:

    If we do and a BIG DO HERE get this storm, i hope it is delayed late Christmas night or early Sun AM, that would not be fun driving in this, lets hope that later in the week they move the timing back on this!!! I am all for Snow, but not on a day when millions are trying to get around, i hope we get hit just hold off until late at night!!!!!!!!!

  7. snowyman says:

    Joe is one of the best met’s to listen too and read about….

  8. JimmyJames says:

    It would be nice to have a white Christmas but if it holds off to Christmas night or the day after that would be alright since people will be able to get to their destinations with no problems.

  9. Mazza says:

    Joe what do you think our chances are from this storm nailing? Us because the 12z GFS and the 0z EURO have it hugging the coast.

  10. southshoretom says:

    on the CPC NAO outlook, I notice that the forecast is for the NAO to slightly oscillate between negative and neutral over the next two weeks. If the oscillation towards neutral could happen next weekend, I wonder if that could help give that storm a chance to track a bit further north.

  11. Ann says:

    Joe how much snow are you thinking for christmas day? i know your calling for a big one

  12. JimmyJames says:

    Ann it ways to early to give amounts right now since we are still several days away from this POTENTIAL Storm. Come late Wednesday or early Thursday if there is still wintry weather in the forecast I will issue impacts from the snow index.

  13. Ann says:

    joe can you give more details? xmas day or night? that would be cool

  14. Mazza says:

    Ann parts of California got as much as 17-32 inches if this storm hits us the snow totals could be high up there

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Snow totals in the mountains of California are not related to what could happen here.

  15. BaileyMan says:

    Joe pay no mind to that rude comment you are a fine met and give great descriptive explanations of possible meteorological occurances and you are are getting better and better as a forecaster! i have taken note! anyway as for next weekend i hope we get nailed by that storm!!! but its waaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyy to early besides do we want to jinxx it now!!! lol also, i still think this storm IS GOING TO SURPRISE ALL! granted at the moment i look foolish by saying this but in the end? i trust i will be well thought of as a met myself! just wait and see…

  16. Ann says:

    i need to dive from stoneham to ludlow and i want to know if travel might be impacted

  17. BaileyMan says:

    i mean this first storm will give most of us a white christmas! it will surprise!

  18. JimmyJames says:

    Ann I would say right now and this will change a lot so stay tuned to future forecasts throughout the week but the timeframe should we see any impact from that storm would be late day Christmas Day into the day on Sunday.

  19. Ann says:

    i know mets leave at 1230pm ,is joe still there? who is working later?

  20. lovinit says:

    are you guys saying that big plume of moisture south of us is going to miss us? How is that? Its coming straight at s

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Did you see my reply earlier? By the time that gets up here, most of it will have dried up and the rest would not be reaching the ground.

  21. Longshot says:

    JJ, you used the word POTENTIAL and not POSSIBLE. I like it.

  22. dedubew says:

    Some might call the NAM model the gloomy gus or even romantic model to bring more snow in. But there have been times where it has verified with heavier snow than what the other models projected right up to the last minute. The NAM proved right and the other models proved wrong. Yet this time it sounds like the NAM doesn’t have too much of a chance of being right.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      The NAM is great in the short range when it’s not suffering convective feedback, as it is this time.

  23. RMB says:

    Hey Ron do you have any clue??? Answer that question before you go on you RANT..

  24. Mark says:

    jim cantore saying hold your breath boston its coming

    1. sse says:

      for next weeks storm or tonight?

    2. Topkatt88 says:

      Seems like I’ve been using this phrase too much this week but… With all due respect, this time to Jim, Boston doesn’t need to do any breath-holding on this one.

  25. JimmyJames says:

    Thanks Longshot and you will hear me say POTENTIAL a lot when talking about a wintry threat several days. Out another thing I will be saying is TIME FRAME OF INTEREST when talking about when a storm might happen.

  26. WeatherWizard says:

    Joe is an excellent meteorogist.
    From Barry’s blog last night:”Joe Joyce is on duty all day tomorrow as I begin my 7 holidays. I shall return to cover all of next Sunday.”

  27. Mark says:

    tonight jim saying several inches along the mass pike,can joe update this?

  28. Longshot says:

    JJ, I have a thought about your original winter forecast which you may have missed in earlier blogs. I actually think your forecast was correct. I can explain and will below. Have to take care of someting.

  29. leo says:

    interesting Mark! Cantore is pretty good

  30. sse says:

    mark where did u hear that?

    1. Longshot says:

      leo, probably the weather channel.

  31. leo says:

    very tiny snowflakes falling in East Bridgewater! probably ocean induced! Nice to see

  32. leo says:

    SSE asked that question Mark

  33. Hadi says:

    Topkatt the reality has not set in for most. But we gave next weeks storm to talk about for the week. It will be a slow week fipor me at work so plenty to come.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I’m noticing that, Hadi.

  34. rainshine says:

    Just looked at NOAA satelllite Eastern US Water Vapor Loop – moisture near Eastern seaboard moving east but on southern end, near Florida moisture getting more abundent. You can see moisture moving west into Canada and also you can see moisture from Pacific storm moving south. Hard to tell where that is going – I think northeast. Very fascinating watching satellite loops – sometimes can tell more from that than computers! :)

    Storm out in Pacific is very strong – storm potentially big in Atlantic – wherever it goes. Weather is getting weird – and complicated – climate may be changing – albeit slowly.

  35. rainshine says:

    And I would like to see snow nxt. wk. – after everyone has a chance to get where they are going.

  36. Longshot says:

    Storm on west coast may leave anywhere from 3 to 15 feet of snow in Sierras. Having lived there, I know snow amounts from one area in the Sierras to another can vary greatly.

  37. Ann says:

    dont you love all the clean cars

    1. Chris says:

      haha. my car has a ton of salt residue from all the salt that has been put down the last week. not clean at all.

  38. lovinit says:

    topkatt, where is all the rain south of long island going to go? Its moving north not east.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Ok. I’ll answer this one for the 3rd time. Most of that precip is going to dry up before reaching the ground…

  39. Scott says:

    a lot of it will dry up on its way north

  40. Andy says:

    snowing moderatly in dennis

  41. Charlie says:

    It’s snowing in southern RI , Coventry, the flakes r very wet and not sticking

  42. jack says:

    Anyone know what the weather will be on the 4th july?

    1. southshoretom says:

      sorry, I’ve only got it figured out through Memorial Day Weekend.

    2. hopeimwrong says:

      day light followed by dark and and way to warm for snow

  43. lvm says:

    Could all of you very intelligent and able bodied mets and/or hobby mets on this blog please make it snow, I am losing my beans here, please make it work somehow!

  44. leo says:

    are you sure Andy?

  45. crashralph says:

    Were & when did Jim Cantore say Boston it’s coming?????????

  46. southshoretom says:

    sleet here in the Marshfield-Scituate area.

  47. Steve says:

    When did Jim say that?

  48. snowman says:

    That was quick.

  49. JimmyJames says:

    Ivm I know what you are feeling because I want it to snow to. Hold good thoughts that next weekends storm could deliver us some snow. As I said earlier there is POTENTIAL for something then.

    1. lvm says:

      I’m counting on you JJ!

  50. leo says:

    precip for the most part is drying up as it heads north. This thing isnt going to do to much this afternoon. heavier bands are sliding to the south of New England and noticed some recent drying on northwest side of precip shield. looks worse than it is.

  51. Scott says:

    thats a big slug of moisture south of us. but its having a hard time progressing northward

  52. steve says:

    I still wanna know when Jim said that for Boston… I am watching and I hear nothing?

  53. weatherbing says:

    steve…….that was most likely an attention grabber and did it for ratings.

  54. Hadi says:

    So the Euro is showing a beauty for 26-27 storm. This is 3 runs in a row so things might turn our way soon enough.

  55. crashralph says:

    Steve I hear ya, Mar wrote it a little bit ago. I can find nothing mysrelf. Think he is trying to get everybody excited. We should all provide a link when making or qouting other statements made by Mets!!!!

  56. Scott says:

    i saw that too hadi:) nothing better than having model agreement a week out.

  57. LouL says:

    What is the timing for flurries/snow showers for Burlington Mass?

  58. lovinit says:

    very light flurries in mansfield

  59. JimmyJames says:

    Its good to see model consistency and hopefully a trend is developing here with next weekends wintry threat. Think Snow!!!

  60. Phil says:

    paul kocin says this storm may hit the i95 corridor yet

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Disagree with Mr. Kocin yet again.

  61. southshoreking says:

    snows filling in arond the south shore. shold start reaching the grond by 4 or so i would assme.

  62. Eric says:

    come on jimmy you that if all models say big storm for next week its not going to happen,if they said no snow than it might turn out big,they never hold true this far out

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      The ECMWF model often does.

  63. Scott says:

    this time, the EURO has the storm slamming us, not just the GFS

  64. JimmyJames says:

    Eric I am not sold on a storm for next weekend and I have been saying all day today there is POTENTIAL. Lets see where everything stands later in the week.

  65. crashralph says:

    Dont beleive anybody unless there is a link to prove their statements. I mean most of us are trust worthy but others its pretty much self explanatory

  66. leo says:

    storm is a week away !

  67. leo says:

    somebodys switching names and making bogus claims!

  68. manowx says:

    turn out the lights the party’s over. Our winters are not what they used to be .

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      We’ve had plenty of big snows in the last 3 decades, and plenty of cold. The party is far from over. Got a few billion years left, in fact.

  69. Scott says:

    still have to get through whatever this storm could put down across the area, if anything

  70. weatherbing says:

    nice of you too chime in manowx

  71. Steve says:

    Any new NAM out yet?

  72. Scott says:

    18z NAM coming out now, probably will show the same overdone precip

  73. Hadi says:

    Just ignore the comments people make that are clearly just trying to instigate. There are a couple who do it. If you ask for a link and one is not provided then just assume it’s bogus.

    With the NAO going a little more positive later this week we are prime for a storm!! I will be up in Augusta Maine for the holidays and it looks positive so far up there as well.

  74. Phil says:

    eliot abrams now saying storm has mind of its own

  75. JimmyJames says:

    Hadi enjoy your holiday up in Maine and hopefully we get some snow next weekend.

  76. Scott says:

    so far the 18z NAM is the same as the 12z NAM

  77. Steve says:

    Why what is he saying?

  78. The Bruins Guy says:

    What does everyone see happening tonight in Boston metro area?

  79. leo says:

    Not much ! Bruins Guy

  80. Scott says:

    this radar will give you a better idea of whats falling, and actually reaching the ground
    http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=box&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

  81. leo says:

    All that heavy stuff going ene, away!

  82. Haterain says:

    These people that are quoting mets at other outlets are making it up. This storm is going to do what Topkatt has said all along. I was surprised Barry uped his totals last night. He has been a little squirrly with this storm. He is still the best.

  83. Phil says:

    Joe Joyce just broke into the football game and said storm will not give up,hes twweking amounts stay tuned

  84. southshoretom says:

    ground now covered by a thin coating of ice pellets. Its been so cold, that even though the precip has stopped, its not melting. The band that is affecting us is easily seen on radar.

  85. RMB says:

    Hey guys we are not even in winter officially yet, so plenty of time, i believe with the pacific being active and these disturbances rolling across the US will eventually ride up the coast and hit us, not sure how strong, how fast, but to think that we will dodge low after low is just crazy, so let the Winter hater’s believe in their phantom world that spring will be here in Jan and we’ll just sit back and blog about this weekend!! Any want interested in Skype???

    1. Scott says:

      skype would be good, wouldnt be any of those annoying name switchers

  86. JimmyJames says:

    Snow Index still at a 1 which is MINOR snowfall of 4 inches or less.

  87. strye44 says:

    I don’t think so Phil, nice try though

  88. Steve says:

    I wonder what Joe sees now?

  89. Mike d says:

    just curious does anyone know how the actual real life placement of todays storm compares to where the euro had it seven days ago

  90. Brian says:

    No one broke into the CBS game

  91. Scott says:

    18z NAM still has an inch of liquid for the Boston area, im running out of places to dump the NAM

  92. Lawrencewx says:

    When is JJs updated blog coming out with his latest thoughts?

  93. Steve says:

    The NAM has been pretty good all day today.

  94. Scott says:

    here’s the link btw

    precip over done again

  95. Steve says:

    I think I am starting to buy the NAM. I am still new at this but it has been saying the same thing all day.

  96. bignoreaster says:

    eventually the snow over eastern ma will start to fall. Im thinking a suprise few inches

  97. JimmyJames says:

    Scott I would have to overdone on the NAM and is having convective feedback issues. If other models were saying this then you have something cooking but the NAM looks like an outlier here.

  98. BaileyMan says:

    the nam has about an inch or plus precip inside of 128 east and southeast and even outside of 495 to worcester close to .75 inches its been consistent for 3 straight runs! by late wed some areas if it verified would have significant snow on the ground

  99. Longshot says:

    The NAM seems to be an outlier and I would not count on it for today but I am wondering if the backside of the NAM is correct. here’s the loop.

    http://meteocentre.com/animate.php?lang=en&satdir=/models/nam_amer_18/&satname=namPR18&satext=gif&num=23&speed=10&title=NAM%2018Z%20ANIM

  100. sse says:

    does anyone think the nam is on to something or is it completely lost.?

  101. Blizzard1 says:

    Has anyone looked into the possibility of a quick few inches Tue/Wed? Just wondering…looked interesting this morning. As of right now just a few lonely flakes in Seekonk.

  102. torridofcourse says:

    look at the radar filling in and moving north including a bit north and northwest maybe baileyman and a few others are on to something strange and we will get significant snows!

  103. Blizzard1 says:

    That 18z NAM loop looked mighty interesting…but if Topkatt is correct about the convective, I suppose should just give up hope :(

  104. torridofcourse says:

    what say you joe joyce?????!!!!!!

  105. miketype says:

    topkatt is not God well at least as far as i know?!! he could be wrong!!! could he not???

  106. wingplow says:

    just got a call from the state saying be ready to get called ot anytime after 8pm. 3-6 inches expected. I was kind of caught off guard becase last i heard this was a miss? Did i miss something today?

    1. jcusce says:

      Where’s your pit wingplow, I’m at Watertown St. Lexington, haven’t heard anything yet.

      1. wingplow says:

        norton right off 495

    2. Topkatt88 says:

      You won’t be getting the call tonight.

  107. Haterain says:

    Not this year. He has been amazingly accurate.

  108. leo says:

    nothing happening wingplow

  109. Ben says:

    Alright… can someone please provide realistic amounts for the entire time frame until Christmas? I love a white Christmas as much as anyone…. Please!! I am not a MET but the radar is interesting for southeast MA… I am in Lowell right now… so not looking great… but if I were in Boston I would stay tuned.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I’ve been trying to do that all week Ben, but the blog gets cluttered with too many repetative messages and met-bashing comments, etc.

  110. Mazza says:

    Ron hes not payed to talk to us that not his job so lests stop being RUDE

  111. Blizzard1 says:

    No more than 2 inches Ben, in Lowell. If you get even an inch in the next week I will be surprised.

  112. Lawrencewx says:

    Joe is on live now on NECN!

  113. mazza says:

    what did he say???????

  114. Craig at Northeastweathereye.com says:

    Norwell had a period of light snow earlier this afternoon…but as you headed back to Hull…no snow there…Will be nice to see the snow fly right before Christmas..Hopefully all the models will come to an agreement for the Christmas night storm and not like last time..Merry Christmas everyone!

  115. joejoycewbz says:

    OK I am back. Get off the snide? I have not heard that in a while. Awesome.
    I am cautious to talk much about the Christmas night storm. Anything I say can and will be used against me!

  116. Mazza says:

    Joe disregard what he said can you give us some info on the storm please?

  117. joejoycewbz says:

    Live on NECN? Really? I must have been sleep walking.

  118. Craig at Northeastweathereye.com says:

    Hey Joe…so glad you went to WBZ…remember all of storm totals from Jaffrey NH??? Great Job! I am in Hull Mass…Northeastweathereye.com my website…Did you loose much hair from the all of the model mayhem from this storm??

  119. Scott says:

    atleast the Euro is showing a big hit at the moment :) i think the pattern should change enough to allow this storm to get us.

    1. Steve says:

      for this storm or next week? Link?

  120. Lawrencewx says:

    Sorry I meant to say Tim!!
    That was a flashback…JJ on NECN!
    My apologies!

  121. Mazza says:

    Please Joe somw details on the storm

  122. sse says:

    tim kelley is saying snow for the pats game. wouldnt that be nice? GO PATS

  123. The Bruins Guy says:

    does anyone see the sanders being out in Boston tonight?

  124. Scott says:

    that batch of moisture wont make it past providence, so i dont think so. Boston might not even see a flake tonight, just too dry

    1. The Bruins Guy says:

      Thanks Scott

  125. leo says:

    In East Bridgewater we finally have light snow falling and a temp of 33.8f. Ocean plume from the NE and moisture from the south is finally working up a bit. A little bit steady also. My reports are accurate!

  126. Ed says:

    what time does joe come on the news tonight?

  127. Dave says:

    Todd gross just tweeted that the xmas storm could if it comes together just perfect be a historic one

  128. Scott says:

    im worried that storm could have mixing issues, far out from now, so we have plenty of time to figure those things out.

  129. Dave says:

    Todd is already calling it the jingle bell noreaster of 2010

    1. Joey Del says:

      Dave, Where do you go to get Todd Gross’s forecast? He was one of my fav met!

  130. timeblim says:

    yes dave i agree 100 percent it will be a historic one! after all someday when people look back it will have been in the past!!!

  131. Longshot says:

    Joe Joyce just cut in. Said nothing much to be expected from this one. Alittle coating in Boston. Little more on Cape. Air to dry and storm out to sea.

  132. snowyman says:

    Dave dont get to far ahead of yourself.

  133. Scott says:

    tues night-wed could put down a little bit of snow

  134. WeatherWizard says:

    From Jeremy Reiner/Cannel 7:”No changes to the storm track…mainly offshore. Not to worry snow lovers…the pattern responsible for this grinch of a storm is sticking around for another 1-2 weeks. that means we still have a chance at getting some big coastal storms, just not from this one.”

  135. Topkatt88 says:

    Rediculous that anybody would give a storm progged for 6 to 7 days away a name already. I see the same stupidity will continue storm to storm.

    I’m just going to approach that one like I do any of them. If it looks big to me, I’ll say it. If it doesn’t, I”ll say it. What’s the matter with just keeping things real and honest in the weather community? I’m not talking about weather enthusiasts who may not be forecasters but get all excited about big storms. That’s fine. Get excited. I love the storms too! But if you are in a profession where your words go public, you should have some restraint and responsibility, or at the very least be ready to back your words up and be responsible for them.

    1. Italo says:

      Amen, T., always the voice of reason! ;) Italo

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        Good to hear from you Italo! Hope you can post more regularly!

  136. Ryan Breton says:

    Joe you’re doing a great job….keep up the good work!

  137. JimmyJames says:

    I’ll believe it when I see it in regards to an historic storm next weekend that Todd Gross tweeted about.

    1. Rob Martin says:

      What is his twitter account? Please send a link.

  138. coastal says:

    Hanover here. Little snow on and off for 2 hours. Light coating on pavements and walk ways. Temp 32

  139. Tom says:

    topkatt do you think that storm will be historic?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      How can you tell if a storm will be historic 6 to 7 days away based on computer forecasts? Impossible.

      Meteorologists who say such things this far out only damage their own credibility. I refuse to do such things. If I’m going to be wrong about something I’ll be wrong about it because I tried to do the right thing and just didn’t do it well enough.

  140. Blizzard1 says:

    The NWS issued a special weather statement indicating the possibility of an inch from Boston to Providence, little more south and east.

  141. The Bruins Guy says:

    Topkatt whats your opinion for Boston tonight?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Coatings to 1/2 inch amounts possible. Locally 1 inch in a few places coast mainly SE MA if ocean enhancement is involved later.

      The NAM’s precip forecast was majorly overdone, due to convective feedback in the model. That was easy to spot this time around, so I tossed out the solution from 12z & a couple before that. I haven’t even bothered with the 18z run because it’s deficient anyway.

  142. leo says:

    There is a dusting of snow on my car! First time in a long time. light snow 33f

  143. Scott says:

    leo, u from southeast mass?

  144. Longshot says:

    Topkatt, I am not in the profession but just an enthusiast. I do believe there is a need for purists such as yourself. I expect hype from the media but as I have said before not many “casters” can separate the hype from irresponsibility. If you are a forecaster you know where the line is in your gut.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I get excited when it’s worth it. I go nuts when it’s called for. But I’ll always be a purist. Maybe some people find my forecasting style boring, but it works for me.

      Always enjoy blogging with you and others, Longshot.

  145. leo says:

    Yes, East Bridgewater. 30 miles SSE of Boston about 10 or so miles inland

  146. Plow Ski says:

    Todd Gross can be trusted. Todd is the best met in the business. Hopefully he will give some audio forecasts this week on his web site, He usually does if a big storm is in the cards. Bring back Todd!

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I official challenge Todd to a forecasting contest.

      1. Longshot says:

        You need tougher, Super Bowl type opponents. :):)

  147. Scott says:

    im on the coastal edge of the north shore, i doubt i will get a dusting. but im hoping i will

  148. RMB says:

    Light Snow Prov RI, and where i live Western Cranston, ri, come on baby let it snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! just a little anyway.. lol lol

  149. leo says:

    Good luck I think you might a little later.

  150. lovinit says:

    snowing steady in mansfield now…

  151. RMB says:

    My money is on Topkatt, also Topkatt would you try Skype with some of these storms, i think it would be neat to different locations outside and what it is doing.. Scott and JJ as well?????

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Don’t have it yet but at some point it’s likely to become part of my job anyway. :-)

  152. hcarool says:

    Topkatt88, I know you are a great met but don’t underestimate Todd Gross either. But I do agree with you, I don’t think even Todd should already be saying we will have the storm next weekend with that confidence

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I have great respect for Todd.

  153. shotime says:

    Topkatt, I don’t find your style of forecasting one bit boring. Your honest, extremely professional, hype free forecasting style is refreshing! Thanks for all the great posts now, and last summer.

  154. joejoycewbz says:

    Ocean effect light snow filling in from Hingham-Scituate-Marshfield and Duxbury
    Light dusting already.

  155. Rob Martin says:

    What is Todd Gross’ twitter account?? I can’t find it.

  156. snowyman says:

    Joe any major changes this week that could effect the “next” major storm?

  157. RMB says:

    Good to see the atmosphere has moistened up a bit, very light snow and it is a good sight to see… Anyway scott do u have anything fallin??

  158. Charlie says:

    Snowing in Attleboro

  159. The Bruins Guy says:

    Normally i would be rooting for snow but since I woke up rocking a fever of 103 this morning the thought of having to work a storm in Boston makes me cringe! just happy there is webcams to check so I do not have to drive from Hopedale to Boston just to check!

  160. Scott says:

    nothing yet for me

  161. plow ski says:

    Todd Gross does not need to prove anything hes been to the big dance. i have not seen anything on his site or read his tweet yet but if he has a prediction already for next week, Lets here yours now Topcatt this far out and see a week from now who was right. you want the challenge, lets here it now

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Todd would have to accept my good-natured challenge himself.

      I’m not abandoning my style for that storm. I’ll handle it just like this one. :-)

      Enough about that for now! Weather commentary coming after 8pm after I finish watching a couple of Simpsons Christmas specials with my son. Priorities! :-)

  162. RMB says:

    I will take topkatt even on his worse day, Why???? Because he has years of expirence and does not get ahead of himself, plays it conservative… Like i said when you hear the man say (GET READY SNE) then it’s a comin!!!!!!rr

  163. Dave says:

    Topac, Our “POTENTIAL” X-MAS storm is hitting california now and is projected to take a week to get here(if it does) clearly its a slow mover do you see the possibility of this being a 24+ hour event if this happens

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Way far away to talk about duration of an event that is only a potential at this point.

  164. strye44 says:

    Topkatt has been more accurate than anybody else

  165. Scott says:

    that storm hitting California is basically a plume of moisture, the real storm is way out in the pacific.

  166. leo says:

    snowing steadily in East Bridgewater! Visibility is on the way down. Roads are whitening.To the east of me there is even heavies snow at the moment, probably moderate

    1. southshoretom says:

      same here. radar filling in nicely…….we’ll see what happens.

  167. southshoretom says:

    moderate snow (at least temporarily) in Marshfield – Scituate area.

  168. coastal says:

    Hanover here. Light steady snow with almost 1/2″ on all surfaces. Just got in from a quick drive and the roads are covered and extremely slippery. Be careful out there on the SS.

  169. joejoycewbz says:

    Even though an upper level low digs into the eatern trough, it appears the storm will lift out soon enough. I would expect a quick intense storm last under 24 hours…moving from the Mid-Atlantic, off the bench mark then into Nova Scotia.
    It appears cold enough for snow. Christmas night-into the 26th looks like the timing now. This can change obviously. This will be a major storm. Not about to get into a forecasting contest with Todd and Topkatt this far out.

  170. Scott says:

    not a flake for me, atmosphere is still a bit dry

  171. Joey Del says:

    Hey Everyone, I’m Joey From Brockton. I have been tracking the weather since elementary school. I’ve been reading these blogs for a couple of weeks and thought it would be great to get involved.

    We have a few Snow flurries in Brockton, 34F.

    Also, here is a great link for radar http://www.wifr.com/interactiveradar let me know what you guys think.

  172. sse says:

    joe… will we see snow during the pats game? thanks

  173. Phil says:

    Todd Gross calling it the jingle bell noreaster,kind of funny LOL

  174. southshoretom says:

    observation visibilities coming down in southeast mass….radar showing overlap of ocean effect precip and the northwest fringe of ocean storm precip. Where they are overlapping, the precip seems to be intensifying a tiny bit, separate from the more moderate echoes near the Cape.

  175. sse says:

    will that snow shield move over gillete?

  176. Rob Martin says:

    I have yet to find a link to Todd Gross’ “jingle ball nor’easter” claim… I won’t believe it until I see that Tweet.

  177. hcarool says:

    Ron, prove you point. I don’t see where Joe didn’t mention tonight.

  178. Dave says:

    thank you joe joyce and in his defence joe is one of the most open honest and well respected met out there. ive been watching him since he was in Necn.please have some respect the models are just more confident in tht storm than this one

  179. Storm says:

    Light to moderate snow here in East Wareham @ 32 dewgrees. Covering the ground up quickly!!!!

  180. KWM says:

    Ron = small man with an even smaller…….

  181. Steve says:

    We are only as good as the technology in front of us. Joe nice job. You can’t help models.

  182. Scott says:

    just report Ron’s comment and nothing else. he’ll eventually leave

  183. Scott says:

    just report Ron’s comment’s(the rude ones) and nothing else. he’ll eventually leave

  184. Scott says:

    woops, website had a malfunction and added another post

  185. Dave says:

    so as of now what models are showing a snowstorm for next weekend, any relable ones

  186. Hadi says:

    I think it’s really sad that people come on the blog to just make comments that are untrue and hurtful to the mets and the passionate bloggers out there. Find someone else to do apart from coming on here and behaving this way.

    Topkatt has done nothinng but be right a lot of the times, and yes he might be wrongnon occasion so you will allmof us at what we do. So jeu givenitna rest and enjoy the weather whatever it may be.

  187. Hadi says:

    Sorry about the typos trying to write fast so the page does not refresh on me:))

  188. Storm says:

    Ron is not a nice person!!!!!

  189. lovinit says:

    snow looks to be filling in nicely

  190. Scott says:

    the moisture looks like its headed out to sea, so much for that dusting-inch for my area…

    1. sse says:

      i thought it looked like its coming farther inland?

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        Those NAM runs were not correct. Posted about that several times. Precip was overdone and too far west.

  191. Mazza says:

    Dave well the 12z GFS and the EURO have it going up the coast for a big storm

  192. hcarool says:

    Dave, I think Euro shows the snowstorm outcome.

  193. JimmyJames says:

    Looks like the the 1 I issued on the snow index is on the mark right now. I am not going to speculate about next weekend storm other than to say will that be the storm I have to issue values higher than 1 for Southern New England or will this disappoint us snowlovers again??? This is going to be a fun week and if this storm is on the maps come late Wednesday early Thursday I will issue impacts.

  194. Tom says:

    weather channel talking about next weeks storm and said it will resemble the mega storm of 93 but it will be a cloder storm,todd gross has a nice title for it.

    1. Brad Guay says:

      Wow that’s really premature/hyped. It even borders on being irresponsible – the average person who hears that isn’t going to think “not according to recent Euro runs.” They’re going to believe it.

  195. Dave says:

    thanks guys and good job all mets, does this wednesday backlash event have the chance to put a 2 for your impact scale JJ

  196. JimmyJames says:

    I am giving that a 1 right now meaning MINOR but if it could exceed 4 inches then a 2 will be given which is MODERATE. Here is the snow index I will be using.
    1. MINOR Coating-4 inches
    2. MODERATE 4-10 inches
    3. MAJOR 10-20 Inches
    4. EXTREME 20 plus inches
    I hope this snow index will be useful like the thunderstorm one was.

  197. Ed says:

    what do these guys make? i hear todd gutner makes 150000

  198. strye44 says:

    Isn’t this a weather blog

  199. metking says:

    Hmmm I kind of doubt that TWC actually said that. Besides all indications from my perspective suggest any storm is likely to be quite progressive

  200. Scott says:

    anyone make it to an inch of snow yet?

    1. southshoretom says:

      nope….we live right near the ocean. When it comes down hard, its snow,,,,when it lightens up it turns to rain. Its been off and on in waves and the ground and pavement is covered with a thin coating of slush.

  201. Ed says:

    why isnt there a fresh blog up yet?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      WBZ Mets are not required to post new blogs at any certain time. They do it as a courtesy. Many nights there may only be one person in the weather office, responsible for emails, phone calls, the blog as time allows, and actually making a weather forecast and preparing for a TV broadcast. So needless to say, they’re just a tad busy. :-)

  202. RMB says:

    I won’t believe anything on this storm, timing, track etc.. We have been down this road, if it is a fast mover then we won’t get high amounts because of that, but looking at the models (which i don’t trust yet) it seems to be a 30he event? I could be wrong and it will change.

  203. Ann says:

    has the storm been names jingle bell noreaster already?

  204. Topkatt88 says:

    Nothing about the Dec 25/26 storm looks like Superstorm 1993, other than low pressure tracking from near the Gulf up along the East Coast etc etc. … So far I am in general agreement with the Euro’s handling of this, though I believe the wave may be a bit weaker, the upper levels a bit less amplified, and therefore the system a bit faster-moving, than depicted on the 12z run.

  205. apjl445 says:

    baileyman is a complete waste of air who does not have a clue what he is talking about you were wrong you piece of …! own up and stay off the blog the storm has missed us without 1 flake so go jump in the ocean or bury yourself! you have no clue and no one will ever want to hear another word from you! im upset you got me excited for no reason! my life is meaningless enough without people like you and bouchard on channel 7 hyping storms only to let us down! go bury yourselves!

  206. ann says:

    what phone calls do they make topkatt?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      They get plenty of calls in the office. My friend and I used to visit Barry on the office back in the college years and that phone rang plenty of times, and that was on a quiet weather day, and over 20 years ago. It’s probably only gotten worse between email, phone, etc. :-)

  207. wilmaand40 says:

    topkatt or whatever your name is? maybe you know weather but i sense you are arrogant you type as if you are the word of the blog get a life you are no more accurate then anyone else and you say you dont call storms a week in advance but already you are saying next weekends storm will not be historic and too fast moving? uh last time i checked that is being presumptous! please get a grip of yourself you are not that good!

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Merry Christmas Wilma and please extend the wish to Fred as well. :-)

      1. RMB says:

        Don’t know either!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  208. RMB says:

    Topkatt did you read those post, they got erased, however is this not getting out of hand or am i just looking at it differently, if i had to guess one the same few will keep changing their name to act like fools, WBZ IS THEIR ANYTHING THAT YOU CAN DO TO CLEAR THIS PROBLRM UP????????????????????????

    1. southshoretom says:

      RMB…I think we have to continue to report the comment, also I think that most of the comments are of high quality and generally drown out those few comments…..Topkatt, your reply was priceless !!

  209. JimmyJames says:

    I think it is too premature to be making comparisons to the Superstorm of 93 for a storm that may or may not affect us.

  210. Mike says:

    topkatt can you go and visit barry at the station? can anybody take a tour?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I can’t speak for Barry or the station, but you could always send an email and ask about what their policy is regarding visits & tours.

  211. WeatherWizard says:

    The Christmas storm does not have to be a superstar storm to make it a good one. We don’t as many things to happen this time around to get snow. If it phases off the coast you get a foot+. If it does not phase we get a few inches.

    THE NAO GOES IN OUR FAVOR…

    The NAO today was pretty LOW, probably too low to allow this storm to make a sharper turn up the coast. The NAO is going toward the neutral side an each day this week we will get closer to that. This is KEY FACTOR # 1 this week. We need to know our ABC’s to get a Christmas Storm.
    ______________________________________
    A rtic Air
    We will have it around all week and the High out west will pump lots of cold air on the back end of the storm. This west side of the storm will feed into the moisture offshore.
    Big High
    Get a big HIGH out west and no need to sigh. This high will help not only pivot cold air into the storm but play the see saw roll in the pattern. The jet will go well into Canada but the flip side is it will dip well into the Southeast allowing the storm to gather some Gulf and Atlantic moisture.
    Coastal Explosion
    This would be the phasing process of the southern and northern jet coming together (phasing) come Christmas. We do not need a big phase here…the bigger the phase the more the craze.
    The GFS has been hinting now run after run on a storm Christmas Day The track will move back and forth and with the NAO changing I do not see this one heading to the south this time around. The storm on most models is actually coming right at us in a west to east track which is an easy route to forecast.

    The other models…
    Most of the models are hinting at some type of storm come Saturday. This is a major change from the storm that was suppose to hit today.
    The Canadian shows an interesting track that takes the storm right off the coast. It’s a good track for snow at this point.
    The Euro,it also has a coastal storm. We did not see the models all agree at the same time so this is a GOOD START and a better start vs. the storm we were suppose to have today. It will be a fun week.
    ===================================================
    My thinking at this point

    I think right out of the gate this storm has a better shot than the storm today. The pattern looks better and the PNA/NAO/AO all show signals for a possible storm. The models are all looking close to same type of pattern early on so this is good.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      This is the first time in a while that the indicies are forecast to be lined up quite nicely.

  212. southshoretom says:

    Somewhere around Lakeville or Carver or just to the west of Rte. 3 from exit 5 down to exit 2 north of the Sagamore Bridge is going to get 4 to 5 inches of wet snow overnight.

  213. Topkatt88 says:

    RMB… I’m not worried about it. :-) Let people say what they will say. I’d say “hey if you don’t like me, skip any post that starts with Topkatt88” but people wouldn’t want to. They gotta get their shots in. ;-) The people most important to me know I’m not arrogant at all. I’m actually a very friendly guy. I really did mean that Merry Christmas sincerely. :-)

  214. RMB says:

    Southshore one of them sounded like he was ready to jump off a bridge, my god it’s just weather… Hey lets just have fun..

  215. Scott says:

    thanks for the much detailed post weatherwizard

  216. RMB says:

    Topkatt i am a little worried xmas night because i am working 2nd shift i do not want to get snowed in or even travel in this, i want this storm, but delay iy until late xmas night!! Any chance this could happen or probably not???

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Of course there is. We’re still so far off. But if there is any timing error in the Euro right now I’d bet that it’s too slow (not what you want to hear).

      1. RMB says:

        Topkatt when do you think, justa far guess we will see an icing event around here?????? Do you think we will have an Icestorm this winter??? Just a guess

  217. Topkatt88 says:

    00z NAM is in and to me it looks like a sound run. The convective feedback issue has been mostly eliminated.

    Using this run, it will continue to support the scenario of a moisture lobe wandering down from the northeast to give a widespread but very light measurable snow event (early call 1/2 to 2 inches over at least 75% of eastern MA) late Tuesday night & Wednesday.

  218. RMB says:

    Yeah not the answer i was looking for.. But you are honest..

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      My son is singing a solo in the school program on Tuesday night and I would love to exit the school to light falling snow. May happen. We’ll see if the timing works out. :-)

  219. RMB says:

    2 inches will get things white>>>

  220. Longshot says:

    The Patriots look like they could use snow tonight. Ugh!!

  221. Longshot says:

    I do not understand how these posts get out of chronological order.

  222. RMB says:

    Pats will win in the end!!!!!!!!!

  223. RMB says:

    I think we need a new blog, this is long.. lol lol

  224. Topkatt88 says:

    It depends on if you use the “reply” option or not.

  225. JimmyJames says:

    Wow getting up there with the comments on the blog. I don’t think break the record which was 400 last winter but I have no doubt the blog will be alive this week with everyone chiming in about next weekend storm potential. The best advice I could give on that is don’t cancel any plans and watch the forecast all week and stay informed.

  226. BaileyMan says:

    well if anything the nam is more robust then the 3 prior runs in terms of snowfall for sne and now making this the 4th it should be something to take seriously in fact, i bet sne ends up with a wide spread 3 to 6 by thursday am when all is said and done awaiting a possible block buster christmas day and/or night and seeing that all models are depicting a pretty major event at next weekends end?! the odds favor a big storm or snow or mix by at least 75% at this time and i am talking just purely in historical and statsitical meteorological terms

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      1/2 to 2 vs. 3 to 6? What if it’s between 2 & 3? ;-)

  227. Longshot says:

    Topkatt, I understand how it could be out of chrono order for a reply, but why is your 8:55 post showing up after your 10:02 post. (Or I am too tired and not getting things right now.)

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Actually I think the blog is messing that up because I posted a new comment that showed up way out of order. ;-)

  228. Longshot says:

    This is a test, not a reply.

  229. Dawn says:

    I have been reading these posts for the past week and all I would like to say is that Topkatt really has impressed me…great job…now pray for Christmas storm…love it

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I’d love a nice light to moderate snowfall on Christmas, Dawn. Enough to make it perfect, but not so much that it makes it too dangerous out there. We can hope. :-)

  230. philip says:

    Nice looking 7-day for the day after Christmas…a possible repeat of the 12/26/47 east coast storm?? :-)

  231. Hadi says:

    If anyone looks at the accuweather blog there is guy who posts under the name of doorman…he seems to know very much about what he is talking about and he indicates that bc of the zonal flow we are in that Xmas storms will slide right out to sea. He also has nailed the last two storms for all us. Just something to think about before anyone gets too excited.

    Any thoughts out there from the experts?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Well, his post might make sense if we were actually IN a zonal flow.

  232. Topkatt88 says:

    RMB… In this kind of La Nina winter the greatest chance of getting an ice storm won’t be until after the blocking pattern has broken down and we have set up a mean high pressure ridge over the US Southeast and made that area the warm zone. Canada and the upper Midwest of the USA will be very cold during that time, and you can see where it goes from there. New England sits in between…

  233. Topkatt88 says:

    Can already see by the first few panels of the 00z GFS that it’s heading for a flip flop pattern with the Christmas Weekend storm. This run will weaken and surpress things to the south. Watch. You can tell by the first few panels.

  234. Haterain says:

    You certainly are correct, it is gone. Let the fun begin.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      So now it’ll disappear from long range icons, then tomorrow when the 18z run brings it back you’ll hear talk about “The Christmas Blizzard” and then the next day it’ll be out to sea and it’ll be how it will be “The Christmas Miss”. Follow the pattern here? :-)

      Meanwhile the Euro will probably have a decent handle the entire time and most people will ignore that model.

  235. Haterain says:

    Topkatt, It is somewhat humorous. What do you think about the 00Z NAM it shows it throwing back quite a bit of precip. Too good to be true?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      The general idea is correct. The amount is a little too high.

  236. Storm says:

    2 inches here in East Wareham!!!!!

  237. longshot says:

    The Pats win was UGLY but a win onetheless.

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