All Is Quiet…But Not Out Of The Woods

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

The week that was in forecasting is gone now.  What we are left with is high confidence of a storm tracking far enough off the coast to have little impact for our region. In fact, I am calling for a great weekend…but also cautious to see if this storm has any more tricks up it’s sleeve.

A deck of stratocumulus clouds has been sitting over Metrowest and Worcester county this morning. Brighter skies south of Boston towards the Cape. I anticipate these clouds to continue to break and eventually give way to some increasing sun. Calm west winds with temperatures similar to where they were yesterday or maybe a degree or two warmer. We are still in a chilly airmass for this time of year…so even though it is not AS cold…you will still want that jacket for comfort. Highs will range in the 33-38 degree range this weekend. Warmer Southeast of Boston..Upper 30’s…Coooler to the Northwest..30-35

Clear skies and light winds will provide another night with lows dropping back into the teens, with 20’s at the coast. Despite worries of an impending storm…we all know this storm is going to be too far offshore to do much of anything. Tracking about 300 miles southeast of Nantucket…this is a storm for the fish…but there are variables in play which just may be enough for a few flakes to fly.

Looking at upper level wind patterns, there is a a vort max sliding through New England Sunday afternoon to help enable lift and snowfall, but the northern and southern streams simply do not merge until well off the coast late Monday and Monday night.  As this storm passes southeast of New England,  the Northwest fringe of the storm may clip the Cape and islands with some light snow as shown in the 12 NAM by Sunday night. 

The combination of instability with , water temps in the mid 40’s with cooler air aloft and moistening NE winds at the surface could also promote ocean effect snow showers to develop…From Cape Ann the the South shore. The best chance of any accumulating snow will likely be found south of Plymouth, mostly on the Cape and Islands. This will depend upon a few ocean effect bands becoming established to cause a period of steady snow. Most of us will likely see very little if anything at all from this storm.

Warmer air will be wrapping around this deeping storm in the maritimes which will undergo cyclogenesis with the merging of streams. Warm air advection snow showers will back into Maine and Northern New England Tuesday…before trying to push further south Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday morning could feature a  period of steady snow before our storm begins to pull away and wraps in gusty colder NW winds on the back side. Oddly enough…this midweek disturbance has a better chance of giving us accumulating light snow.

Dry and cold to end the week…but we will have to track another low likely tracking south of New England Christmas day. Could it snow on Christmas? Maybe…but the way things are going…this will likely stay south as too. Such a waste of cold air…

  • Old Salty

    Thank you for the update Joe.
    Glad you are being real re: Christmas. We all know that any potential for Christmas will go POOF just like its predecessors. I’d really be surprised if it comes to be.

  • RMB

    The way i figure then hopefully if we will miss out on Snow all winter, i hope this block stays here right through the summer, some experts are calling for a much cooler summer and if we keep a NW flow with this blocking in place i would be very happy and it may happen NO HEAT OR HUMIDITY SOUNDS LIKE A TREAT..

  • RMB

    If we can’t have a good snowy winter cause of this pattern then lets keep it here year long!!!!!!!!

    • Topkatt88

      ENSO & other indicies point strongly toward stormier weather later in the winter but with more rain events, so the cold/dry pattern will take a break. But it will probably return for later Spring & Summer as a cool/dry regime overall. Not to say we won’t have any hot days in Summer 2011, just think they will be much fewer (JJ will like that).

  • Scott

    is there a way that this block moves over slightly to allow a storm to come up the coast? cause it has to happen sometime.

    • Topkatt88

      It is possible, Scott. So far though it has either moved “too much” or “not enough”. Just happens that way sometimes.

      We have a shot again in a week. No guarantees.

  • hcarool

    Does anyone know when that High over Greenland will go away? I am very sick of not getting snow, even when the cold air is in place. This was the worst December in terms of snowfall I’ve ever seen.

  • Steve-O

    12Z GFS rolling now and for several consecutive runs now its showing a major coastal storm for Christmas Day. Obviously this is 7 days out and a lot can change…but interesting to say the least.

  • Scott

    yea i just took a look at the 12z GFS, thats quite the Christmas gift, been very consistent with that path

    • Topkatt88

      I just don’t like to rely on the GFS, even when it’s consistent for a while. Unless it’s agreeing with the Euro throughout.

      You don’t want a storm “too major” because this early in the season they often become messy storms due to the milder ocean. We’re better off with clippers, or glancing blows from bigger storms with a more northerly wind here if you want snow.

      • Scott

        it is a clipper, which blows up to a monster, the GFS may have over done the QPF. the EURO seems close to the GFS,

  • Mark Paquette

    Right…the key is the NAO to become more neutral as just less negative, then a low is able to get closer to the caost

  • chris72

    As much as I want the snow, I don’t want it on Christmas day. A lot of people have to drive that day myself included and don’t want to have to cancel Christmas plans if it were a major storm. If something were to develop hopefully it will hold off until later that night.

  • Scott

    thanks mark for that key information.
    henry isn’t buying the Christmas storm yet, but it should be watched no matter what, its fun to watch these things happen anyways.

    • Topkatt88

      If Henry isn’t buying it, then LOOK OUT! (just kidding)

      • Longshot

        I actually agree. If HM doesn’t like it, then there’s at least a 50% chance it will occur.

  • JimmyJames

    Topkatt your right I wiould very much like a cool summer with plenty of sunshine. I am not a warm weather hater but my ideal summer temperatures are upper 70s to low 80s with dew points in the 50s. Snow Index at 1 for The Cape and Islands meaning MINOR if any snowfall happens it will remain below 4 inches or under.

  • crashralph

    Hey guys not trying to give false hope to eastern new england but check out the upper level low north of Minnesota. Its still moving west wilth a ssw component to it. Allowing a bit mor digging which you can see in the last few frames. Just saying as this is a now casting event check out the attachment. See for yourself. The few who do know me from past post will understand what im seeing is legit!!!×480

    • southshoretom

      the water vapor satellite is one of my favorites….. good analysis…..In my opinion, there are other things on the loop that are working against a closer track to the coast. Look in the Atlantic, there simply is no ridge out there of any kind. I think if there was a bit of a stronger ridge out there, it could further help to sharpen the eastern side of the trof.

  • dedubew

    It’s The Old Farmer’s Almanac (Michael Steinberg of Accuweather using sunspot activity –low at the moment, as a major card player) that is calling for a cool summer in New England. They are also calling for a mild winter in Northern New England,and curiously so have the CPC 6-10, 8-14 day outlooks, while the deep south is projected cold.

  • weatherman1212

    This question came to my mind when I was watching the news this morning. The news said that North Korea would start a nuclear war with South Korea if the South holds their military drills. If North Korea were to detonate a nuclear missile over South Korea, would it’s detonation affect our weather?

  • retrac

    there seems to be a high in the right spot for once at hour 192. if that get replaced by that upper low…forget it.

  • crashralph

    Southshorestorm I can see what you talking about, its close but no cigar I guess!!!

  • feldman

    Here he goes again trying to get some hype for next weekend. Hey Joe, stop trying to hype everything. You are by far the worst (and most annoying) met at BZ. When you come on the I immediate change the channel. You were so sure we were getting this storm and once again you are WRONG!

  • Joe

    i agree feldman joe joyce is a complete fraud,gutner and mack are in his camp,.i hope barry never retires

  • Joe

    joe was the king of hype at necn,now like you say hes talking about a christmas storm,what a joke

  • crashralph

    How was that last couple of sentence’s hype? Just don’t see it when he finishes it by saying “staying south, such a waste of cold air”!!!

  • southshoretom

    joe and feldman,

    Guys…..your not going to gain much credibility with your posts if you use the tone that your using. Questioning the forecast accuracy…..go for it !!! But, how about doing it with some examples……no namecalling and a post that encourages some give and take dialogue. Thanks.

  • Joe

    We were so lucky to have barry burbank this week,what a great job he did

  • hcarool

    Feldman, as many met would say, this was one of the most difficult storm to predict. And I am sure Joe wasn’t 100% confident that this storm would happen because he did mention the chances of the storm heading out to sea. I don’ think anyone can blame the met after what the Euro showed Thursday taking the Low very close to the benchmark.

  • hopeimwrong

    once again, it is super market comsperacy time. every august, the mets and the
    super market owners have a meeting. they get out their day timers and pick out
    dates to forecast major snow storms. we go out and buy up all the milk and bread
    and the next day the storm is a miss and goes out to sea. they then split the profits
    fact or fiction. . you tell me

  • RMB

    To all the level headed individuals it is pleasent blogging with you, however after reading from (AKA JOE) his comments, what a gutless person to rip every expert and mock their chracter on this site is not enjoyable at all.. I hope this site can soon find a way to eliminate these few gutless people who change their name and take CHEAP shots on innocent people doing their job, I am may be done from this blog for a while, i can’t stand these gutless people who ruin it!!!!

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