All Is Quiet…But Not Out Of The Woods

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

The week that was in forecasting is gone now.  What we are left with is high confidence of a storm tracking far enough off the coast to have little impact for our region. In fact, I am calling for a great weekend…but also cautious to see if this storm has any more tricks up it’s sleeve.

A deck of stratocumulus clouds has been sitting over Metrowest and Worcester county this morning. Brighter skies south of Boston towards the Cape. I anticipate these clouds to continue to break and eventually give way to some increasing sun. Calm west winds with temperatures similar to where they were yesterday or maybe a degree or two warmer. We are still in a chilly airmass for this time of year…so even though it is not AS cold…you will still want that jacket for comfort. Highs will range in the 33-38 degree range this weekend. Warmer Southeast of Boston..Upper 30’s…Coooler to the Northwest..30-35

Clear skies and light winds will provide another night with lows dropping back into the teens, with 20’s at the coast. Despite worries of an impending storm…we all know this storm is going to be too far offshore to do much of anything. Tracking about 300 miles southeast of Nantucket…this is a storm for the fish…but there are variables in play which just may be enough for a few flakes to fly.

Looking at upper level wind patterns, there is a a vort max sliding through New England Sunday afternoon to help enable lift and snowfall, but the northern and southern streams simply do not merge until well off the coast late Monday and Monday night.  As this storm passes southeast of New England,  the Northwest fringe of the storm may clip the Cape and islands with some light snow as shown in the 12 NAM by Sunday night. 

The combination of instability with , water temps in the mid 40’s with cooler air aloft and moistening NE winds at the surface could also promote ocean effect snow showers to develop…From Cape Ann the the South shore. The best chance of any accumulating snow will likely be found south of Plymouth, mostly on the Cape and Islands. This will depend upon a few ocean effect bands becoming established to cause a period of steady snow. Most of us will likely see very little if anything at all from this storm.

Warmer air will be wrapping around this deeping storm in the maritimes which will undergo cyclogenesis with the merging of streams. Warm air advection snow showers will back into Maine and Northern New England Tuesday…before trying to push further south Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday morning could feature a  period of steady snow before our storm begins to pull away and wraps in gusty colder NW winds on the back side. Oddly enough…this midweek disturbance has a better chance of giving us accumulating light snow.

Dry and cold to end the week…but we will have to track another low likely tracking south of New England Christmas day. Could it snow on Christmas? Maybe…but the way things are going…this will likely stay south as too. Such a waste of cold air…

Comments

One Comment

  1. Old Salty says:

    Thank you for the update Joe.
    Glad you are being real re: Christmas. We all know that any potential for Christmas will go POOF just like its predecessors. I’d really be surprised if it comes to be.

  2. RMB says:

    The way i figure then hopefully if we will miss out on Snow all winter, i hope this block stays here right through the summer, some experts are calling for a much cooler summer and if we keep a NW flow with this blocking in place i would be very happy and it may happen NO HEAT OR HUMIDITY SOUNDS LIKE A TREAT..

  3. RMB says:

    If we can’t have a good snowy winter cause of this pattern then lets keep it here year long!!!!!!!!

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      ENSO & other indicies point strongly toward stormier weather later in the winter but with more rain events, so the cold/dry pattern will take a break. But it will probably return for later Spring & Summer as a cool/dry regime overall. Not to say we won’t have any hot days in Summer 2011, just think they will be much fewer (JJ will like that).

  4. Scott says:

    is there a way that this block moves over slightly to allow a storm to come up the coast? cause it has to happen sometime.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      It is possible, Scott. So far though it has either moved “too much” or “not enough”. Just happens that way sometimes.

      We have a shot again in a week. No guarantees.

  5. hcarool says:

    Does anyone know when that High over Greenland will go away? I am very sick of not getting snow, even when the cold air is in place. This was the worst December in terms of snowfall I’ve ever seen.

  6. Steve-O says:

    12Z GFS rolling now and for several consecutive runs now its showing a major coastal storm for Christmas Day. Obviously this is 7 days out and a lot can change…but interesting to say the least.

  7. Scott says:

    yea i just took a look at the 12z GFS, thats quite the Christmas gift, been very consistent with that path

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I just don’t like to rely on the GFS, even when it’s consistent for a while. Unless it’s agreeing with the Euro throughout.

      You don’t want a storm “too major” because this early in the season they often become messy storms due to the milder ocean. We’re better off with clippers, or glancing blows from bigger storms with a more northerly wind here if you want snow.

      1. Scott says:

        it is a clipper, which blows up to a monster, the GFS may have over done the QPF. the EURO seems close to the GFS,

  8. Mark Paquette says:

    Right…the key is the NAO to become more neutral as just less negative, then a low is able to get closer to the caost

  9. chris72 says:

    As much as I want the snow, I don’t want it on Christmas day. A lot of people have to drive that day myself included and don’t want to have to cancel Christmas plans if it were a major storm. If something were to develop hopefully it will hold off until later that night.

  10. Scott says:

    thanks mark for that key information.
    henry isn’t buying the Christmas storm yet, but it should be watched no matter what, its fun to watch these things happen anyways.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      If Henry isn’t buying it, then LOOK OUT! (just kidding)

      1. Longshot says:

        I actually agree. If HM doesn’t like it, then there’s at least a 50% chance it will occur.

  11. JimmyJames says:

    Topkatt your right I wiould very much like a cool summer with plenty of sunshine. I am not a warm weather hater but my ideal summer temperatures are upper 70s to low 80s with dew points in the 50s. Snow Index at 1 for The Cape and Islands meaning MINOR if any snowfall happens it will remain below 4 inches or under.

  12. crashralph says:

    Hey guys not trying to give false hope to eastern new england but check out the upper level low north of Minnesota. Its still moving west wilth a ssw component to it. Allowing a bit mor digging which you can see in the last few frames. Just saying as this is a now casting event check out the attachment. See for yourself. The few who do know me from past post will understand what im seeing is legit!!! http://mapcenter.hamweather.com/satellite/wv/24hr/us.html?s=640×480

    1. southshoretom says:

      the water vapor satellite is one of my favorites….. good analysis…..In my opinion, there are other things on the loop that are working against a closer track to the coast. Look in the Atlantic, there simply is no ridge out there of any kind. I think if there was a bit of a stronger ridge out there, it could further help to sharpen the eastern side of the trof.

  13. dedubew says:

    It’s The Old Farmer’s Almanac (Michael Steinberg of Accuweather using sunspot activity –low at the moment, as a major card player) that is calling for a cool summer in New England. They are also calling for a mild winter in Northern New England,and curiously so have the CPC 6-10, 8-14 day outlooks, while the deep south is projected cold.

  14. weatherman1212 says:

    This question came to my mind when I was watching the news this morning. The news said that North Korea would start a nuclear war with South Korea if the South holds their military drills. If North Korea were to detonate a nuclear missile over South Korea, would it’s detonation affect our weather?

  15. retrac says:

    there seems to be a high in the right spot for once at hour 192. if that get replaced by that upper low…forget it.

  16. crashralph says:

    Southshorestorm I can see what you talking about, its close but no cigar I guess!!!

  17. feldman says:

    Here he goes again trying to get some hype for next weekend. Hey Joe, stop trying to hype everything. You are by far the worst (and most annoying) met at BZ. When you come on the I immediate change the channel. You were so sure we were getting this storm and once again you are WRONG!

  18. Joe says:

    i agree feldman joe joyce is a complete fraud,gutner and mack are in his camp,.i hope barry never retires

  19. Joe says:

    joe was the king of hype at necn,now like you say hes talking about a christmas storm,what a joke

  20. crashralph says:

    How was that last couple of sentence’s hype? Just don’t see it when he finishes it by saying “staying south, such a waste of cold air”!!!

  21. southshoretom says:

    joe and feldman,

    Guys…..your not going to gain much credibility with your posts if you use the tone that your using. Questioning the forecast accuracy…..go for it !!! But, how about doing it with some examples……no namecalling and a post that encourages some give and take dialogue. Thanks.

  22. Joe says:

    We were so lucky to have barry burbank this week,what a great job he did

  23. hcarool says:

    Feldman, as many met would say, this was one of the most difficult storm to predict. And I am sure Joe wasn’t 100% confident that this storm would happen because he did mention the chances of the storm heading out to sea. I don’ think anyone can blame the met after what the Euro showed Thursday taking the Low very close to the benchmark.

  24. hopeimwrong says:

    once again, it is super market comsperacy time. every august, the mets and the
    super market owners have a meeting. they get out their day timers and pick out
    dates to forecast major snow storms. we go out and buy up all the milk and bread
    and the next day the storm is a miss and goes out to sea. they then split the profits
    fact or fiction. . you tell me

  25. RMB says:

    To all the level headed individuals it is pleasent blogging with you, however after reading from (AKA JOE) his comments, what a gutless person to rip every expert and mock their chracter on this site is not enjoyable at all.. I hope this site can soon find a way to eliminate these few gutless people who change their name and take CHEAP shots on innocent people doing their job, I am may be done from this blog for a while, i can’t stand these gutless people who ruin it!!!!

  26. crashralph says:

    Jow nobody is saying that you cant be objective but come on all the Mets even Barry waffled!!!! Matt Noyes on the other hand was the only one that waited for the next days runs until making his prediction. So if you want to be mad that we didn’t get the big snows like most of us are then blame it on mother nature as she is a fickle beast. Because it’s not Joes fault that the computer models they use suck. Its our fault for buying into them as it is! Enough said!!!!

  27. philip says:

    I am having posting issues again.

  28. RMB says:

    Gutless people who have nooooooooooo clue, WBZ stand up and get rid of these people, do whatever you can and get them off of here, U AND US BLOGGERS DONT NEED THEM ON HERE, NO LOSS BELIEVE ME, WHAT GUTLESS PEOPLE, GUTLESS!!!!!!!!!!! GUTLESS!!!!!!!!!!!!! GUTLESS!!!!!!!!!!!

  29. Steve-O says:

    The Henry M of last year would be jumping all over the GFS and undoubtedly would be hyping this up big time….even 7 days out.

  30. JimmyJames says:

    RMB I agree with you and I think everyone is entitled to their opinion but there is no need to slam an individual or individuals just because they have a different perspective than you. I like hearing different people’s views just as long as they don’t bash anyone.

  31. crashralph says:

    On a differant note any model updates? It looks like to me on satalite imagery a little bit more digging is taking place, or am I wrong?

  32. philip says:

    Boston could have the 2nd LEAST snowiest December on record.

    1. philip says:

      Other Decembers with only a trace of snow were in 1891, 1899, 1927, 1953, and 1973.

      1. philip says:

        December 1957 also.

  33. hopeimwrong says:

    RMB just having some fun. I hang on every model run like you guys do.i have
    a lot of respect for them all. i’m just fustrated right now . I am a landscaper
    and lost a lot of money last summer because of the drought ie;; NOTHING GREW
    and now i have no snow to plow.

    1. RMB says:

      I actually have no problem with you or what you said, it was Joe who got nasty calling all the Mets nasty names.. I hope things get better for you and i feel toyr frustration, it was funny because the other day someone commented on here saying that we act like snow is money falling from the sky, and my response was year it is in some ways for people like yourself, I hope we get lots for you and have a good holiday, everything works in weird ways !!!

  34. crashralph says:

    Sorry to hear that hopeimwrong. Loosing income doeas stink, hope it chages for you soon!!!! Maybe we can get a surprise out of this by Sunday!!!!

  35. Topkatt88 says:

    Be nice children. ;-)

    BTW before anyone gets overly excited about the 12z GFS for Christmas, just the mere fact that the GFS model has that solution is pretty much a safe bet that it won’t happen that way. ;-)

    I’m not saying there is no shot at Christmas snow. After all, it IS December. I’m heading out for most of the afternoon including the walk with the coyotes mentioned previously – lol. Later on after I’ve checked out the Euro & other stuff, I’ll give some thoughts on the days ahead (though there is a post from me from around 3 this morning doing that in case anyone’s interested – I think it’s back one blog post).

    Good afternoon everyone!

  36. JimmyJames says:

    To me when a model shows a snowlovers dream a week out it never happens. Maybe for once the GFS could pull off an upset and move up in SouthShoreTom’s BCS rankings for models.

    1. RMB says:

      JJ, Topokatt and others do any of you guys have skype, it would be fun if we do get a storm sometime that because we all live in different spots of SNE we could have actually views of different locations picking up different precip?????? Just a thought

      1. JimmyJames says:

        RMB I don’t have skype but that is a good idea you have. We get to keep thinking snow because eventually its going to happen. As I said earlier snow index at 1 for The Cape and Islands meaning MINOR Snowfall.

      2. Scott says:

        yea i have a skype, thats a really good idea

  37. mike d says:

    Topkatt I completely agree with your 11:48 comment regarding clipper type systems and fringe storms being our best chance at early season snow exspecially here on the south shore. In that sense the cold air is not waisted as it helps to percipitate the very gradual cooling of our coastal waters which hopefully will set the stage for an early march big snow

  38. hcarool says:

    On Thursday, when most of the met were calling a major noreaster and Topkatt wasnt, I thought to myself that he was a bad met, but after realizing that he nailed the track of this storm down, I won’t believe that there will be a snowstorm unless Topkatt says so.

  39. hopeimwrong says:

    thanks RMB i would like to see a good storm. but as i told my
    wife we just need a lot of 2 inch snow falls rather than one
    really big one. i actually lose money on a foot of snow ,i
    i make my money on the times i go out rather than how deep
    the snow is. so i just need 2 or 3 inches per storm and i am
    a happy man. so 6 , 2 inch storms are better than a foot all at once.

  40. Mazza says:

    Dont see why this cant happen

  41. philip says:

    What is the current day for consecutive snowless days? The last I saw was “Day 292″…and counting. I beleive the recrod is 303 days set on Jaunuary 13, 2000.

    Unforturnately, we may need to focus on some LEAST snowiest records for Boston and maybe the suburbs too. If Boston does not receive 1.4” of snow by the end of the month, December 2010 will be in the top 10 LEAST snowiest Decembers.

  42. Steve says:

    I just checked the latest GFS for 12/20 it looks closer.

  43. JimmyJames says:

    Philip I don’t think when we had those snowless December’s the winter ended up with above average snowfall but I could be wrong. I remeber hearing that back when December 2006 had very little snowfall and that winter ended up with a total of 17.1 inches for Boston.

    1. philip says:

      Jimmy, Boston only did it once during the 1891-1892 winter at 46.8″…that 1891 December received only a trace of snow, which is what Boston has right now.

      For the most part you are correct, all other winters were below normal…in some cases waaaaay below.

      1. philip says:

        Correction…all other “snowless” Decembers ended up with waaaay below normal totals for the season.

      2. JimmyJames says:

        Thanks Philip and I hope December 2010 won’t be added to the list of snowless Decembers. We have an opportunity a week from now but I am not going to say anymore on that until we get closer.

  44. dave52 says:

    Bottom line it is easy to be 90% accurate when predicting whether New England will get that Big Nor’Easter. Simply predict a miss and you will be right 90% of the time!!! its no mystery so thats it

  45. RexRyan says:

    12ZNAM brings the storm more west…….could get a little interesting. Not a big storm, but certainly more interesting for the cape

  46. RexRyan says:

    12ZNAM shows the storm more west! interesting to say the least, especially for south coast, cape and the islands

  47. philip says:

    Just wondering…any chance that the Tues-Wed “event” could get a bit stronger?

  48. RexRyan says:

    no, that will be a dusting

    1. philip says:

      RexRyan, thanks…I guess we’ll have to take what we can get at this point.

  49. philip says:

    The one thing that is ironic about the month of December is that while snowless Decembers more likely produce very low final snow totals, snowy Decembers do not guarantee snowy winters…last year was a good example.

  50. ssne says:

    we have not heard the last from this storm…… i strongly beleive eastern ma will be suprised sunday evening…..

  51. RexRyan says:

    cape could get interesting, eastern, ma, perhaps a dusting possible now. see what the trends are in the next few runs. could just be a rogue model run

  52. JimmyJames says:

    Philip the winter of 2003-04 comes to mind when that powerful Noreaster struck between the 5th and 6th of December giving a lot of areas 20 plus inches of snow which was followed by a real cold January. The final total was close to normal if I recall but I remember a lot of people saying this was going to be a snowy winter and it was not.

  53. RexRyan says:

    12ZNAM makes things much more interesting. Certainly not a big storm, but perhaps a 3-6 event on the cape, and maybe dusting from 1 to 2 inches in boston.

  54. JimmyJames says:

    Back that snow further west so all of us in Southern New England could get some snow. Will see how that plays out but if that model is correct a 2 would be given for the Cape meaning MODERATE snowfall and a 1 for Boston meaning MINOR snowfall but I need to see other models jump to buy that

  55. leo says:

    Is there any chances models could bring storm even further west? I doubt it but you never know. Rex Ryan, watching your blogs yesterday and I thought you made alot of sense with your analysis of the storm. Im obsessed with snow but you kept things real.

  56. RexRyan says:

    Thanks leo, right now this westward movement on the NAM has my attention. No guarentee’s, but if the GFS moves west as well, this could get interesting.

  57. josh081290 says:

    last nam run sure is interesting, far enough west to give the cape 3-6 if that verified. im sure next run will probably be different though. wel’ll see!

  58. Mazza says:

    That is interesting with the 12z NAM also that possible storm for next week has move even closer to the coast lets see what the EURO says

  59. sse says:

    i really never beleived in the complete miss theory. I stll strongly believe we will be seeing snow tommorow.

  60. josh081290 says:

    the 18z nam is the one to see. its almost completely out now, and has the storm close enough to give the outer cape 4-8+ inches of snow. if the next run is even further west, things will really get interesting

  61. leo says:

    I hope so sse! The fat lady hasnt sang yet. gfs should be interesting.

  62. Mazza says:

    When is the next run

  63. snowman74 says:

    I think the Boston area/North Shore get a dusting to 1 or 2 inches by Monday afternoon. But all the talk seems to be about the backlooping event Tuesday into Wednesday. Could be a repeat of last New Years 4 days of backlooping snow? I would guess that there is a pretty decent swath of between 3 and 6 from that event . I’ll take 3-6 over a 2 day period. Easy to deal with…but festive enough.

  64. philip says:

    Jimmy, 2003-2004 snow total was 39.4″…a bit below normal. You were just about right!

  65. southshoretom says:

    I havent really had a chance to fully digest the 12z NAM……just a thought though…..3-6 or 4-8 inches for the Cape is going to probably require .5 to .75 in melted equivalent, as I’d assume a 10 to 1 ratio with temps near 32F. Are we sure, even with a westward trend on the NAM that it is implying that much precip ?

  66. Scott says:

    18z NAM is giving coastal areas 3-6 inches, a loop takes place, speaking of surprises…thats further west than the 12z NAM

  67. Scott says:

    this is slightly better

    1. southshoretom says:

      thanks Scott.

      1 question, 1 observation….

      question : is the 18Z run of the NAM as unreliable as the 18Z Run of the GFS ?

      Observation : if you held the NAM to it, about 80% of the country should get measureable precip. I guess I’m saying the precip looks a bit overdone.

      1. Scott says:

        the 12z NAM was further west than the 6z NAM, and we are really close to this storm, so any new run will be accurate. hopefully we can push that 1 inch QPF a tad west

  68. Mazza says:

    If the 18z NAM trends continues to trend westward this will get interesting when does the next run come out??

    1. Scott says:

      00z NAM should come out at around 9 or 10

  69. JimmyJames says:

    Scott thanks for the llink it looks like the eastern parts of Southern New England will get the most and the amounts will really fall off to the further west you live in Southern New England. I gave some numbers of my initial thinking for the snow index but if this westward trend continues the 2s may be needed for more than just the Cape.

  70. ssne says:

    ill tell you what…..its going to be funny wathing the local mets explain this tonight lol

    1. southshoretom says:

      in my opinion, they’d be wise to consider maintaining their message from this morning……. If they ever had to, they could polish the message up a bit tomorrow. I think there needs to be more evidence of this and in terms of the viewing area, not a lot of the area’s forecast currently would be greatly changed, only very close to the coast.

  71. Scott says:

    this storm just doesnt want to quit!
    speaking of the cape, that shows 1 inch of liquid, not sure it would be all snow though. the NAM is usually the first to pick up on these types of things, so we’ll see what happens. dont put the shovel away just yet, might have to go buy another towel, threw mine yesterday

  72. mazza says:

    ssne your right it is going to be funny hahaha and Scott when is the next run in of the NAM?

  73. crashralph says:

    Looks like things might start heating up again guys. This one heck of a storm to try to forecast. Im guessing they will be studing this for some time to come. That upper level low north of minnesota has something to do with the possible closer to the coast solution as its contiuing to move a bit south of west. Correct????

  74. Scott says:

    posted the time above, but it should be out at around 9:30. im not sure the mets will react much to the NAM…this storm is very challenging to forecast

  75. Scott says:

    didn’t topkatt say a loop was in his thinking??? thats what the 18z NAM showed

  76. crashralph says:

    The 18z is close to phasing tomorrow afternoon. 2nites runs will be interesting!!!! Was the blizzard of 78 a 6 inch forecast before making it a full blown blizzard warning some 6 hours before?

  77. JimmyJames says:

    Scott I think the mets are going to look at this run of the NAM and wait to see if other models jump on board with that solution.

    1. Scott says:

      yea, i should have put what u said in there, i ment to say, they wont take 1 run of the NAM and all of sudden break out the “big snowstorm” signs. hopefully this is a trend. thank you NAM!

  78. Scott says:

    the models back then wern’t nearly as good as the ones today, so i doubt anything like 78 will happen all of a sudden. but i can see 4-8+ snowfall happen at coastal areas, shall the 18z NAM verify. if it trends west, that would get up.
    lets not get too excited just yet…as it’s only one model showing that

  79. josh081290 says:

    the fact that there are not even any hazardous weather outlooks anywhere in new england from the nws is pretty weird. they must be taking the time to see what the other computer models say regarding this storm

  80. JimmyJames says:

    Scott good point not to get excited. As I always say when the winter weather alerts get issued is when I start to get excited about a storm.

    1. southshoretom says:

      JimmyJames…

      If the NAM gets this right, I’m moving it up to #1, ahead of the EURO…conversely, if it doesnt snow a flake here at the coast, its going down to #54, after the GFS…… :)

  81. leo says:

    NWS just put out a new discussion as of 426pm

  82. crashralph says:

    Scott that is a great point it was more of a curious question more then anything. But look at this link. Wasn’t the Northwest strom suppose to be sitting off Oregon it looks more like it off the coast of Canada now, plus that upper level low noth of Minnesota is tugging more at our storm, more so tomorrow. Thoughts??? http://mapcenter.hamweather.com/satellite/bwir/24hr/us.html?s=640×480

  83. Scott says:

    i am interested to see what the mets say about the NAM, if they mention it at all. this seriously might be a last minute storm.

  84. Steve-O says:

    …id honestly be dumbfounded if this storm becomes a big deal anywhere here in southeastern New England. The 18z run of the NAM is interesting to say the least and it’ll be interesting to see if its the start of a trend. We will all know by later tonight if something has changed or not.

  85. Mazza says:

    well my brother works for the DPW in Watertown and after seeing yesterdays forcast took the plows off but now have noticed the 18z NAM model move westward in their snow room and have put the plows back on

  86. Longshot says:

    Steve-O, it will change all week.

  87. Scott says:

    i wonder what topkatt says later about the new info when he comes on to chat. since he’s been right on key with this storm

    1. southshoretom says:

      something with sound reasoning and support thats easy to understand.

  88. crashralph says:

    Anybody peak at that link I posted. It does appear to be alot more diggin on the western side of the trough then depicted would that lend to mor bending on the eastern side?

  89. Steve-O says:

    Long-Shot…I’m referring to the storm that “might” have been for late tomorrow through Monday AM. If the GFS trends NW on the 18z run…then the local mets will start to get a little nervous…..GFS rolling now.

  90. Mazza says:

    Im loving this

  91. Steve-O says:

    Also, its odd to me that both the GFS and NAM hint at 2 low pressure systems…one east of FL/GA coast…and one further NW off the Carolina coast at 18 hrs….

  92. metking says:

    hey yall – the afternoon nam tends to be a snowlovers dream…just look at last year’s midatlantic monster. the same nam runs would put down 2ft plus in boston and we hardly saw any flakes! similar dynamics this time around with a block and looping potential – i just dont feel that model is sophisticated enough to handle this type of situation. worth keeping an eye on now though…any thoughts on xmas storm?

  93. dave52 says:

    well i said it earlier today and ill say it again this storm will buck the conventionally model consesus and surprise 99 percent of the mets and you out there! we will be getting snow! watch and see and remember me! i base it on actually synoptic and upper level conditions and thats in real time the models are not handling this one!

  94. Willy13 says:

    18z GFS coming in now…..

  95. dave52 says:

    i meant to say conventional not conventionally typo and mine is an actual forecast based on personal scrutinization of real time info so take that wacked out models!!

  96. crashralph says:

    A little bit west Im hearing on the GFS?????

    1. metking says:

      just a touch by my read…oh well

  97. Scott says:

    at 42, tad west, let more of it come out

  98. Topkatt88 says:

    The back-looping event was always part of my scenario (check the archives). Just not sure of detail. And since I haven’t looked at much today and won’t be able to for another hour or so, I’ll have to comment in a while. Finishing up some errands. :-)

  99. Steve-O says:

    GFS not as optomistic about snow reaching southeastern New England.

  100. leo says:

    GFS doesnt look that great yet!

  101. crashralph says:

    Also is it me or does that greenland block appear to be a bit stronger?? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.html

  102. metking says:

    its a miss fellas..damnit

  103. sam hates snow says:

    As much as I do not care for snow (note my blog name), I wish it snowed a bit, my son was realy looking forward for some snow for Christmas, speaking of Christmas, it looks like we may get a small clipper by then?

  104. Scott says:

    the NAM is 50 times better than the GFS, remember that. 53 times greater for sst:)

  105. metking says:

    wow..gfs is very east with this thing now and i tend to lean on that model in this timeframe

  106. Scott says:

    lets see if the 18z GFS does the loop

  107. mimmy says:

    Just got home from running errands. Is this storm back on or am i reading wrong?!!!

  108. tj says:

    Doesnt the 18Z gfs lack data?

    1. josh081290 says:

      the gfs lack data period. henry margusity programmed it

  109. josh081290 says:

    still no consistency between the nam and gfs. models are obviously still having a tough time figure out what this storm is going to do. no one will know until the storm happens. i sure wouldnt want to be forecasting this!

  110. crashralph says:

    A classic Noth & South battle going on between the 2 camps. Didn’t the North win, lol

  111. dave52 says:

    not sure what is after 48 hrs on gfs but, the gfs wont catch up to nam due to limited input perhaps the next ooz run of the gfs will catch up with nam it is at least 1 or 2 steps behind the nam anyway now!

  112. plowguys123 says:

    Im just happy to have some hope of getting snow. Was not a good feeling when pete bouchard said no snow at all on the 4pm news last night. When you spend thosands of dollars on fuel to fill the trucks then they do a 180 on the forecast its a bad feeling

  113. ssseee says:

    tim kelley said plowable snow

  114. crashralph says:

    when did tim say that???

  115. Mazza says:

    Yes he did just saw that

  116. ssseee says:

    3 minutes ago…..said marginally plowable snows for eastern ma and cape cod

  117. crashralph says:

    Cool tomorrow Ill see everbody at stop & shop as the blizzard will hit. LOL just kidding guys!!!!

  118. Steve-O says:

    …i remember a storm when Tim Kelly was forecasting 10″ of snow last year in southern most New England….and we barely got a coating. The forecast was made the night before the storm.

  119. dave52 says:

    although that gfs run is frought with error it still managed to pull heaviest precip a tad further west hmm which makes me think 00z and 06z gfs could get interesting with more member input and upper level dynamic and wind field direction seems to indicate some greater northern allignment and retrogration
    the plot thickens a bit now..

  120. crashralph says:

    Wasnt this storm suppose to slow a lot? It looks to be moving a pretty good pace right now!!!!

  121. dave52 says:

    studying the infared and satellite cloud movement and formation indicates blowing up and some tendency to develop and move more north then east and over florida clouds are excellerating east down stream and appear to offer counterclockwise momentum perhaps the prelude of upper level phasing tied to omega formation and/of deformation favorably to earlier low pressure retrogration perhaps this phasing is outpacing computer handling stay tuned!!!

  122. Scott says:

    in English please

  123. crashralph says:

    Dave nice right up makes sence!!!!

  124. Lawrencewx says:

    Now it looks like snow is back in the forecast!
    LOL We will be NowForecasting tomorrow!!

  125. Scott says:

    please, lets wait for the 00z NAM before we put snow back in the forecast.

  126. Mazza says:

    I agree with Scott when does that run come out

  127. dave52 says:

    oh im sorry, you want the last blog of mine in english scott? ok looks like it might snow! ha

    1. Scott says:

      i got an idea, but im sure others on this blog may have a hard time understanding some of the words you used. but it was a great write up

  128. WeatherWizard says:

    Tim Kelly said there will be light snow during the Patriots game Sunday night.

  129. Scott says:

    9:30 for the NAM, hopefully it shows the same, if not, more snow:)

  130. WeatherWizard says:

    From NWS:”THE MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DEVELOPING
    OCEAN STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. WE DID
    NOTICE THAT SOME OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS DID INCH A BIT TOO THE
    NORTHWEST FROM 00Z WITH THE QPF SHIELD. IN FACT…THE 15Z SREFS
    SNOW PROBABILITIES INCREASED AND THE 18Z NAM MADE A DEFINITIVE JUMP
    TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE QPF SHIELD. WE ARE CERTAINLY NOT GOING TO
    JUMP ON ONE MODEL RUN SUCH AS THE 18Z NAM…BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
    EYE ON THE REST OF THE 18Z AND 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE THIS EVENING TO
    SEE HOW THE MODELS TREND.”

  131. Scott says:

    isn’t the NAM the first model to point things out than the other models which take more time to figure out?

  132. crashralph says:

    This storm is getting huge, check it out!!! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.html

  133. Longshot says:

    The 18Z GFS, as I understand it has less data. In following it, the model has a bad track record, very bad from what I have observed.

  134. RMB says:

    Topkatt, you have been dead on… R we seeing a slight trend, you know ur stuff, i would imagine you are deep into these model runs making sure it is not throwing ur forecast off.. Help us out, what are we seeing going on with the Nam?????

  135. Scott says:

    mets are about to give their 2 min forecast, lets see if they hint at what the NAM was suggesting

  136. JMA says:

    Come on guys. I have far too much respect for all of you to think you are actually biting on the unreliable 18z NAM when there is so much model data to the contrary. ItI makes you all seem like wishcasters. Each of you are far better than that. To tell you how bad the NAM output is -Its snow tool wants to dump a foot of snow on nantucket over the next 3 days. We know that is not reality so you can’t pick and choose the data you want to believe is valid. A far more realistic idea is to modify the SREF snow tool and down the possibilty of a dusting-2″ inches on a line from Salem to Providence over a 36 hour period. The dusting being the more you move inland, the higher amounts within 5 miles of the coast. That might have a shot of happening. Nothing west of 495 and anything south of the cape bridges would get washed away by rain.

    1. southshoretom says:

      Hi JMA.

      I know I’m constantly fighting the battle of what I want versus what my meteorology background and experience tells me is going to happen.

      Anyhow, I think your post makes many very excellent points.

  137. sse says:

    channel 5 and 7 hinting at light snow now

  138. Scott says:

    they only talked about sunday nights ocean effect thing, nothing about tuesday yet. they will talk about it in their full forecast

  139. leo says:

    Looking forward to some wet ocean effect snow showers to develop in my area tomorrow afternoon. Live in east bridgewater 30 miles to the south of the city and slightly inland so im in a good area for this situation, although it wont be heavy it will be nice to see

  140. Scott says:

    Harvey said light stuff for Wednesday. we’ll see

  141. Longshot says:

    Channel 5 & 7: 2″ around the Canal; 1″ maybe in Outer Cape; little to none in Boston.

  142. sse says:

    barry says 1-3 now for south shore

    1. southshoretom says:

      perfect !!

  143. leo says:

    there thinking really hasnt changed

  144. Scott says:

    cant wait for the 00z NAM, mets havn’t changed much

  145. leo says:

    snow showers will develop earlier than forecasted Im thinking around 6 or 7 in the morning on sunday. maybe even late tonight

  146. Dave says:

    can someone give me the link to the nam tht they are all tlking about? thxs

  147. philip says:

    NWS has a coastal storm for late Christmas Eve into Christmas day and all models are in agreement, but…the 12Z GFS has the storm right on the benchmark and the 12Z Euro has it well supressed to the south.

    I guess we know already what the end result will be. :-(

  148. Dave says:

    SO anyone still think tht a 6 inch snow is poossible for SE mass morrow/monday or is tht over

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Done deal. Less than 1 inch everywhere down there.

  149. david says:

    hey topkatt. what do you got thus far for christmas are wee looking at a niight event or morning event

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Too early to be sure on timing. Depends on how open the low pressure wave is, assuming it’s even close enough to do anything to us. If I was forced to guess now, I’d speed up the timing a little bit.

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