Arctic Cold Retreats to Rain, Only To Return Again

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

Arctic air in place today-tonight-through tomorrow keeping temperatures way below from the normal high this time of year year. This is an airmass more typical in the dead of winter…even then it would be chilly! Highs today are 30-35, but winds gusting over 30 are making temps feel like the teens and Lwr 20’s

Northern Ski resorts are doing great thanks to the lingering effects of Monday’s storm with persistent,  upsloping accumulating snowfall. Stowe, VT seeing 31″ in the past 5 days. Jay Peak picking up over 2 feet of new snow in the past 72 hours! In has been snowing continuously at Killington for the past 3 days. Click here for the latest conditions!

An upper level trough is in place over New England. Cold arctic air is on the move and will settle over the region tonight for the coldest night so far. Diminishing winds with Clear skies. Lows will drop into the teens, even some single digits in northwest valleys.

High pressure cold builds in for Thursday with abundant sunshine but the cold heavy air at the surface will go nowhere…despite the sunshine..highs will remain in the 20’s near 30. The last time it was this cold we have to go back to February 6th of 2010. Make sure to dress properly for this weather.

The trough will lift out with a flatter milder Pacific flow heading towards the weekend. A clipper which will  remain along the border of the US and Canada will approach by Friday. It is mostly going to be a warm front to push through. The leading edge of a warmer air for the weekend will rride the cold air in place across the northeast to form clouds. This disturbance may also touch of a few snow showers or flurries Friday night…but it does not look like much at this point…mostly north…little south.

Weak high pressure moves in to start the weekend with a return to a more seasonal airmass.  Meanwhile a vigorous storm will be coming out of the rockies and through the plains. This storm will be a snow maker for Iowa, Chicago, Cleveland to Pittsburgh as the low will  be an inside runner and track up through the Appalachians. They will be cleaning the snow off of Soldier’s Field for the Patriots game in Chicago which promises to live up to it’s name the windy city as cold arctic air will be rushing in on the back side of this storm. It looks frigid for game time with temps in the teens and windchills near 0

With enough cold air in place Sunday morning, we may see a brief mix to start  as the leading batch of precip approaches. Strong upper level winds from the south will push in too much warm air our way.  Expect a steady Rain to develop Sunday, especially by afternoon with periodic downpours and a gusty southerly wind. A general 1-3″ of rain will fall from this, as a secondary low will develop south of New England Sunday night and cross through Monday morning with another batch of heavy rainfall with it. As winds shift to the Northwest with the departing storm we may see a quick change over to snow for a brief time Monday afternoon…especially in the Northwest. In fact, the Northwest mountains just may squeeze out a pretty nice snowfall before this is all over.

A deep trough will be in place along the east coast Monday. Colder Arctic air will funnel in with strong Northwest winds behind this departing storm.  We will track the polar vortex in Canada which appears to slide right down into the base of this trough and sit near or around New England through much of next week keeping cold arctic air in place with a NW flow from Canada into the weekend of the 18th. Highs should remain in the 20’s once the cold air settles in.

Shortwaves spinning around this upper level low may spin off periodic snow showers and flurries…but also help to steer any real storms away from us for another week this December. Another one bites the dust. Such is life in this high latitude blocking pattern.

Comments

One Comment

  1. JimmyJames says:

    I am taking away the impact for the clipper on Friday and will watch if anything changes with the late weekend storm. I still think if there is a change to snow it would be in the interior but the other thing that concerns me for Monday is with the rainfall expected the possibility of a flash freeze. More wasted cold starting next Tuesday so no meaningful snow will happen.

  2. manowx says:

    This pattern is locked in for the rest of the month. Very little snow for the Boston area and probably not more than month’s worth of cold AND snow for the winter. The Atlantic is simply too mild. It’s wait til next winter!

  3. Scott says:

    the atlantic will eventually cool down as this winter progresses. it looks so wrong outside with just plain cold and no snow. maybe i should invest in my very own snow maker for the time being.

  4. Hadi says:

    Manows I think a little extreme in your thinking?

  5. manowx says:

    While watercolor painting this afternoon, the side of my face was burned by the reflection from the neighbors vinyl siding. Their siding is beige!!! More evidence this winter should be a short one.

  6. manowx says:

    With the exception of winter 02-03, all the winters this past decade were shortened. One was variable, with well above average snow ( 04-05 ) The current winter reminds me of 00-01 which if memory serves, came in with slightly below average snow in metro Boston.

  7. Scott says:

    and i started to sweat when the wind blew in my face…this winter hasn’t even begun yet…

  8. manowx says:

    I am confident there will be no white xmas in Boston. My analog winter is 00-01.

  9. manowx says:

    winter began on Dec 1

  10. Scott says:

    yea the meteorologic one even with that, its only been a week since dec 1, still too early to say if it will be a white xmas in Boston

  11. Chris says:

    manowx… how is getting a sunburn in the winter have anything to do with a short winter? maybe i dont understand your arguement correctly , but people can get a sunburn in the winter, esp when skiing

  12. Hadi says:

    Its really furstrating to have this cold this week24 hrs of warm air and then back to the arctic for the extended period!!!!

  13. crashralph says:

    So much for a snowy start for the Northeast this December!!!! Can’t believe how wrong the guys at Accuweather can be and still have a Job. Bill Murry wondered why a slush was thrown at him in the Weatherman movie, well now you know. Stop making predictions if you cant get them right. Start predicting the opposite and maybe just maybe you will be right. Ok rant over.

  14. JimmyJames says:

    CrashRalph when I issued my winter outlook I called for a cold and snowy December. Well I maybe half right with the cold but not the snow.

  15. crashralph says:

    Well things are not ur fault when things dont pan out. Accuweather is just getting ridiculous with blown call after blown call. Now things can still change with this storm as its still 5 days out!!!! Lets see how it plays out.

  16. Scott says:

    since december has turned out different than predicted, the rest of the winter may turn out different as well

  17. crashralph says:

    Scott true I can see it now Palm trees sprouting up in February with falling coconuts hitting weather forcasters, joking of course!!!!

  18. coach23 says:

    I see nothing wrong with palm trees and no snow on the ground yet. Works for me.

  19. Scott says:

    i am loving the 18z GFS!!!!

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      It’s great if you like fiction. Do NOT trust that model, and especially the 06z & 18z runs.

  20. Mark Paquette says:

    I can see why you like the 18z GFS! Quite a radical change from previous run, so would not put too much faith into it. Let’s see what the 00z says…

    Crashralph…what did AccuWeather predict that was so wrong? If it is the White Xmas forecast, with this kind of trough and cold air to be in place, all it takes is a shortwave rotating through the trough the models can’t see in the medium to long range and boom..Noreaster. Plus, don’t give up on snow for Xmas, it is not even Dec 10th!!

  21. leo says:

    18z GFS looks like a southern New Englanland snow storm! Wish that was reality rather than fantasy. Still cool to look at .

  22. gocolonials says:

    Hey, I’ve been following for the past week. What an exciting blog! Snow lovers are back in business. I know it’s way to early to call p-type on the sunday/monday storm but the 18z gfs shows more precip. after cold comes in compared to the warm part of the storm.

  23. Scott says:

    i wont put a whole lot of faith in the lastest run, but it just shows that hope is still alive. lets see what the NAM brings tomorrow

  24. mazza says:

    Go 18Z GFS!!!!!!!!!!

  25. leo says:

    Topkatt, are you completely throwing out the 18z GFS? Just curioos on your thoughts, thanks. Has the euro been trending east at all, anybody know.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      18z GFS = complete fiction.

  26. Scott says:

    Henry Margusity is not believing it, we might actually have a shot with this one.

  27. Mark Paquette says:

    Euro has been consistent with the westerly track

  28. mazza says:

    The Euro has a storm redeveloping off the east coast for Tusedahttp://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_500p_6d.htmly

  29. Mark Paquette says:

    haha..a Henry comment…too funny. Henry is a really good guy btw…

  30. Scott says:

    i noticed that too, lot of cold air behind the storm no matter what happens. but you can just see the blocking, eastern canada isnt all that cold

  31. mazza says:

    Ya and theres a storm off the coast of mass

  32. rainshine says:

    Awhile ago I heard on NOAA from my radio from the Worcester station that the rain on Mon. might turn to snow before it ends. That forecast may just be for inland areas – but I guess there could still be hope . . .

  33. southshoretom says:

    at the storm conference last Saturday, the first presenter did a 6 day GFS outlook on this Friday’s clipper that is going into southern Canada. Last Saturday’s 6 day forecast redeveloped this Friday’s clipper just over or south of Nantucket…………beware of the GFS……

  34. Mark Paquette says:

    Eastern US cold, eastern Canada and southern Greenland mild, western Europe cold in a negative NAO pattern…

  35. plowguys123 says:

    You cant count this storm out just yet. Ive seen so many “rain” storms turn into blizzards a day or two before it happens

  36. retrac says:

    did you guys see the latest gfs (18z) run-looks totally different

  37. Dave says:

    So lets see what we have here….A small but never the less a trend to the east in most models and now the 18z has revealed a snow lovers dream right 5 days before the storm. Has this sudden change changed anyones thought on the “ALL RAIN” 50 degree monday or is this just another one of the gfs’s tricks

  38. JimmyJames says:

    This to me just gives us snowlovers some hope but I am not buying this until I see other models come to this solution

  39. southshoretom says:

    I’m not trying to be the snow bah-humbug……but, in my opinion, I dont think the 18z GFS is a big snow maker for eastern New England, even if it verified. I see rain with the initial low, with a second low generating whose precip, as cold arrives brushes eastern New England, with rain transitioning to snow.

    1. southshoretom says:

      the 12z Euro actually has that second developing low….. well, well southeast of Nantucket.

  40. firefly says:

    The storm on Sunday/Monday will definitely be all rain around here. No question about.

  41. Dave says:

    What are the odds that the interior locations at the very least get snow out of this sometime between sat night thru monday

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Very low odds.
      This has been pretty certain for several days now per the very reliable ECMWF model.

      And the overall cold/dry pattern (with the mild storms) is right on target.

  42. JimmyJames says:

    If the GFS pulls this off to me that would be like unranked team in college football beating the number 1 team in the nation. Its not impossible but not likely.

    1. southshoretom says:

      Current BCS Model Standings…
      1 European
      2 NAM…………………

      53 GFS

  43. Scott says:

    could be a few flakes on the tail end of this storm while the cold air is rushing in. if the ECMWF trends eastward tomorrow, then i might have more cold on my mind, until then, my mind is too mild for any snow.

    (refresh has yet to be fixed)

  44. Elnoral says:

    topkatt do you think this will be snow free december and when is the last that happened?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I don’t recall a completely snow-free December. I’ll have to check my stats for very low snow Decembers.

      And no I don’t think we’ll make it through this month snow-free. It will end up just under normal.

  45. Dave says:

    If that secandary low forms witch at this point it looks like it will. If it trended east another 50-75 miles(Not impossible) and deepened like it also very well could i believe it would have no problem drawing down cold enough air for SE or at least the interior for mid monday But thts just me

  46. leo says:

    Storm will be colder dont care what the models say! Im not saying all snow for southern new england but it wont be a warm rain storm all the way through the event. Just an opinion, we will see!

  47. Ed says:

    ed caroll out in springfield says this sundays storm could slide out near the benchmark

  48. Dave says:

    I know I mean what have the models shown thus far snow storms 10 days out to rain storms 4 days before the strom! Welll now its a snow lovers revenge. They have all showed a rain storm for the past week, Well its starting to change just as all the snowstorms did. Its a Gonzo situation all over again!!! On then off then BOMMMMMM!

  49. Scott says:

    good thing i held on to that towel…might lose it by tomorrow though

  50. crashralph says:

    Mark P, accuweather constantly predicted snow fall for the east coast for the beginning of December. Now I now we dont always get early snow in the Boston area, but when Henty M and Joe B keep banging the drum in mid/late November about snow in the east during the described time frame well I gues I kind of became a believer. Now if this storm becomes a great lakes cutter then guess what we would be lucky to get snow at all this December as the blocking would become intrenched for the long hall. Now there is still 5 day left on this possible storm to unfold a planket of snow across the region. Like always time will tell.

  51. JimmyJames says:

    SouthshoreTom I like your BCS Rankings for the models. The Euro has to be one even though I don’t like what it says and the GFS is dead last in the pack but who knows might pull off a monumental upset.

  52. JimmyJames says:

    Topkatt December 2006 I believe was a low amount of snow for December and I remember that wintet Boston only had 17.1 inches of snow.

  53. Mazza says:

    Euro and 18z GFS both have the second low developing on Tuseday

  54. snowman says:

    mazza what sites you looking at links please?

  55. mazza says:

    The link for the 18z GFS is not working

  56. snowman says:

    thank you!!!!

  57. mazza says:

    lets see what the next update brings us

  58. snowman says:

    do they update it every few hours mazza?

  59. Mazza says:

    Yes when it comes out ill put it up

  60. shotime says:

    Grrrr! Just lost my comment! I’m in Word now, playing it safe! I’m wondering… if the Sun/Mon storm is a rainmaker for us, does that mean a blizzard for Chicago? If we can’t have the snow, at least maybe my son can get in on the action! :)

  61. mazza says:

    But it does look like we have a good chance at the second low developing off the east coast we will see what the EURO says in a few

  62. snowman says:

    yea let me know mazza that would be great! I have been checking the forcast daily and its going to be close.

  63. mazza says:

    Longshot that very interesting that run has the second storm even closer to the coast potential snow storm!

    1. Longshot says:

      mazza, unfortunately the GFS 18Z is so bad that I really do not understand why the “Model Owners” don’t make changes to it. in fact, the GFS regardless of the run is awful yet no one ever makes an attempt to fix it. I think Topkatt told me it hasn’t been changed for years.

  64. Mark Paquette says:

    Crashralph,
    Accuwx was predicting a cold weather pattern for early Dec. Obviously with a cold weather pattern, there is a chance for snow. As we are seeing, we can have a cold pattern with very little snow and actually quite a bit of rain (if the storm track to our west verfies). I believe the 2 individuals you were mentioning stressed that the pattern could favor a major East coast snow storm, which verfied.

  65. mazza says:

    No problem snowman and it does look very close

  66. mazza says:

    GFS updates at 10:30 pm

  67. Scott says:

    the 00z Euro probably wont be out till after midnight, not sure exactly when, but im expecting it to cut through the lakes again. i really dont see it shifting 500 miles to the east to make it a colder storm. part of me wants to toss the Euro..unless the GFS shifts back to the west, the towel will be tossed

  68. Scott says:

    but the initial low goes through the lakes, based on that graphic, its hard to tell how much moisture is left after the secondary storm develops. the low is also quite a distance away from the US to cause any real snow. that 00z EURO is going to change a lot of things if it has trended eastward

  69. mazza says:

    Lets hope it does

  70. Scott says:

    00z NAM appears to have the storm heading to the Great Lakes

  71. Scott says:

    the NAM has the storm in it’s “long range” category, which means it may flip flop over the next few runs, have to stay positive

  72. Topkatt88 says:

    Forget the coastal scenario. And high temp Monday should touch 50 in a few areas.

  73. Topkatt88 says:

    I forget to mention, or forgot to remind… No high pressure to the north, no snowstorm. You need it in this setup, and we won’t have it here.

    1. longshot says:

      Topkatt, unfortunately I agree. i’ve been looking for that northern high to form (or somehow magically appear). One of those things I learned early on from Don Kent.

  74. Chris says:

    the unreliable gfs will be out shortly…

  75. Scott says:

    The one good thing, there isn’t any snow on the ground, so when the storm comes through, there won’t be any to melt.

  76. Chris says:

    o im sorry scott. i took ur lines. u always announce when the gfs is coming out haha :)

  77. mazza says:

    18z GFS and the EURO still have the second storm developing

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