Arctic Cold Retreats to Rain, Only To Return Again

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

Arctic air in place today-tonight-through tomorrow keeping temperatures way below from the normal high this time of year year. This is an airmass more typical in the dead of winter…even then it would be chilly! Highs today are 30-35, but winds gusting over 30 are making temps feel like the teens and Lwr 20’s

Northern Ski resorts are doing great thanks to the lingering effects of Monday’s storm with persistent,  upsloping accumulating snowfall. Stowe, VT seeing 31″ in the past 5 days. Jay Peak picking up over 2 feet of new snow in the past 72 hours! In has been snowing continuously at Killington for the past 3 days. Click here for the latest conditions!

An upper level trough is in place over New England. Cold arctic air is on the move and will settle over the region tonight for the coldest night so far. Diminishing winds with Clear skies. Lows will drop into the teens, even some single digits in northwest valleys.

High pressure cold builds in for Thursday with abundant sunshine but the cold heavy air at the surface will go nowhere…despite the sunshine..highs will remain in the 20’s near 30. The last time it was this cold we have to go back to February 6th of 2010. Make sure to dress properly for this weather.

The trough will lift out with a flatter milder Pacific flow heading towards the weekend. A clipper which will  remain along the border of the US and Canada will approach by Friday. It is mostly going to be a warm front to push through. The leading edge of a warmer air for the weekend will rride the cold air in place across the northeast to form clouds. This disturbance may also touch of a few snow showers or flurries Friday night…but it does not look like much at this point…mostly north…little south.

Weak high pressure moves in to start the weekend with a return to a more seasonal airmass.  Meanwhile a vigorous storm will be coming out of the rockies and through the plains. This storm will be a snow maker for Iowa, Chicago, Cleveland to Pittsburgh as the low will  be an inside runner and track up through the Appalachians. They will be cleaning the snow off of Soldier’s Field for the Patriots game in Chicago which promises to live up to it’s name the windy city as cold arctic air will be rushing in on the back side of this storm. It looks frigid for game time with temps in the teens and windchills near 0

With enough cold air in place Sunday morning, we may see a brief mix to start  as the leading batch of precip approaches. Strong upper level winds from the south will push in too much warm air our way.  Expect a steady Rain to develop Sunday, especially by afternoon with periodic downpours and a gusty southerly wind. A general 1-3″ of rain will fall from this, as a secondary low will develop south of New England Sunday night and cross through Monday morning with another batch of heavy rainfall with it. As winds shift to the Northwest with the departing storm we may see a quick change over to snow for a brief time Monday afternoon…especially in the Northwest. In fact, the Northwest mountains just may squeeze out a pretty nice snowfall before this is all over.

A deep trough will be in place along the east coast Monday. Colder Arctic air will funnel in with strong Northwest winds behind this departing storm.  We will track the polar vortex in Canada which appears to slide right down into the base of this trough and sit near or around New England through much of next week keeping cold arctic air in place with a NW flow from Canada into the weekend of the 18th. Highs should remain in the 20’s once the cold air settles in.

Shortwaves spinning around this upper level low may spin off periodic snow showers and flurries…but also help to steer any real storms away from us for another week this December. Another one bites the dust. Such is life in this high latitude blocking pattern.

  • JimmyJames

    I am taking away the impact for the clipper on Friday and will watch if anything changes with the late weekend storm. I still think if there is a change to snow it would be in the interior but the other thing that concerns me for Monday is with the rainfall expected the possibility of a flash freeze. More wasted cold starting next Tuesday so no meaningful snow will happen.

  • manowx

    This pattern is locked in for the rest of the month. Very little snow for the Boston area and probably not more than month’s worth of cold AND snow for the winter. The Atlantic is simply too mild. It’s wait til next winter!

  • Scott

    the atlantic will eventually cool down as this winter progresses. it looks so wrong outside with just plain cold and no snow. maybe i should invest in my very own snow maker for the time being.

  • Hadi

    Manows I think a little extreme in your thinking?

  • manowx

    While watercolor painting this afternoon, the side of my face was burned by the reflection from the neighbors vinyl siding. Their siding is beige!!! More evidence this winter should be a short one.

  • manowx

    With the exception of winter 02-03, all the winters this past decade were shortened. One was variable, with well above average snow ( 04-05 ) The current winter reminds me of 00-01 which if memory serves, came in with slightly below average snow in metro Boston.

  • Scott

    and i started to sweat when the wind blew in my face…this winter hasn’t even begun yet…

  • manowx

    I am confident there will be no white xmas in Boston. My analog winter is 00-01.

  • manowx

    winter began on Dec 1

  • Scott

    yea the meteorologic one even with that, its only been a week since dec 1, still too early to say if it will be a white xmas in Boston

  • Chris

    manowx… how is getting a sunburn in the winter have anything to do with a short winter? maybe i dont understand your arguement correctly , but people can get a sunburn in the winter, esp when skiing

  • Hadi

    Its really furstrating to have this cold this week24 hrs of warm air and then back to the arctic for the extended period!!!!

  • crashralph

    So much for a snowy start for the Northeast this December!!!! Can’t believe how wrong the guys at Accuweather can be and still have a Job. Bill Murry wondered why a slush was thrown at him in the Weatherman movie, well now you know. Stop making predictions if you cant get them right. Start predicting the opposite and maybe just maybe you will be right. Ok rant over.

  • JimmyJames

    CrashRalph when I issued my winter outlook I called for a cold and snowy December. Well I maybe half right with the cold but not the snow.

  • crashralph

    Well things are not ur fault when things dont pan out. Accuweather is just getting ridiculous with blown call after blown call. Now things can still change with this storm as its still 5 days out!!!! Lets see how it plays out.

  • Scott

    since december has turned out different than predicted, the rest of the winter may turn out different as well

  • crashralph

    Scott true I can see it now Palm trees sprouting up in February with falling coconuts hitting weather forcasters, joking of course!!!!

  • coach23

    I see nothing wrong with palm trees and no snow on the ground yet. Works for me.

  • Scott

    i am loving the 18z GFS!!!!

    • Topkatt88

      It’s great if you like fiction. Do NOT trust that model, and especially the 06z & 18z runs.

  • Mark Paquette

    I can see why you like the 18z GFS! Quite a radical change from previous run, so would not put too much faith into it. Let’s see what the 00z says…

    Crashralph…what did AccuWeather predict that was so wrong? If it is the White Xmas forecast, with this kind of trough and cold air to be in place, all it takes is a shortwave rotating through the trough the models can’t see in the medium to long range and boom..Noreaster. Plus, don’t give up on snow for Xmas, it is not even Dec 10th!!

  • leo

    18z GFS looks like a southern New Englanland snow storm! Wish that was reality rather than fantasy. Still cool to look at .

  • gocolonials

    Hey, I’ve been following for the past week. What an exciting blog! Snow lovers are back in business. I know it’s way to early to call p-type on the sunday/monday storm but the 18z gfs shows more precip. after cold comes in compared to the warm part of the storm.

  • Scott

    i wont put a whole lot of faith in the lastest run, but it just shows that hope is still alive. lets see what the NAM brings tomorrow

  • mazza

    Go 18Z GFS!!!!!!!!!!

  • mazza

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