Weather Alert Sunday/Monday: Snow, Wintry Mix | Forecast | BlogWeather App

Blustery Dry Chill in Stormy Blocking Pattern

By Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

Certainly more clouds out there today compared to yesterday…but still an overcast thin enough at times to provide some partial sun. A lighter NW wind with considerable cloudiness will keep temps mostly in the 30’s today. Some spots will average close to 10 degrees below normal.

One low has weakened and lifted in to Canada, but we quickly need to turn our attention to more energy rounding the base of a trough firmly entrenched on the east coast which will become a deepening storm as it approaches Nova Scotia and Northern Maine tomorrow. 

This will be a powerful storm which will bring more than a foot of blowing and drifting snow to parts of Maine…mainly in towns from Millinocket, Greenville, Caribou to the Allagash…. The combination of snow, wind gusts in excess of 30 mph and temperatures falling into the 20s could make for near-blizzard and life-threatening conditions for those venturing outdoors at the height of the storm Monday.

Far northern portions of Vermont and New Hampshire, particularly ski country could see several inches of snow as well before this storm pulls out Tuesday. Resorts such as Bretton Woods, Cannon Mountain, Sugarloaf, Sunday River and Wildcat should benefit from the natural snow once the wind settles down.

High latitude blocking with high pressure parked in Greenland is locking this pattern in for the near future and will play a role in the weather picture down the road for our chances of accumulating snowfall in southern New England. Our models do not handle these blocking patterns well, so extended forecasts this far out have to be taken with a grain of salt. There is not much certainty with the details and timing of what is coming down the pike. But we have high confidence that this high latitude blocking and buckling of the jetstream will promote more storm development and introduce a much colder airmass into the US…The weather is certainly going to become more interesting and challenging in the coming days….and also a higher probability for snowfall depending on the eventual track.

For now…all is quiet with more clouds than sun. As the storm deepens in northern Maine, gusty NW winds will begin to develop Monday with peak gusts to 30-35 mph possible. With snow across the Far North Monday, cool biting west winds will be in place through midweek directing the coldest air of the season into New England by midweek with highs struggling to reach the freezing mark by Wednesday & Thursday with diminishing wind at that point.

Tracking an Alberta Clipper for the end of the week. The intensity and track to be determined. This will be a chance of snow late Friday into early Saturday morning. Another Clipper will follow behind by Monday the 13th. This will have better upper level support and more moisture to work with. This will be a low that once it hits the coast will become stronger. The question this far out is snow or rain? An inside track will bring warmth and rain…a southern track will mean snow and a possible nor’easter! Impossible to know this far out…but you knew that already. Plenty to watch coming down the Pike!

Bundle and Buckle up!

Comments

One Comment

  1. Scott says:

    wouldn’t the block force the storm for monday further south, so it would not become a inside runner? and im betting we get the nor’easter:)

  2. Elnoral says:

    i think its unfair for joe joyce to talk about storms next week when he cant even nail down the coming weeks weather,calm down joe winter is just begining

    1. firefly says:

      ITA with you.

  3. JimmyJames says:

    I will wait to see how things evolve this week and if there is a chance of snow on Wednesday I will be giving impacts on the snow index. I don’t see anything major late this week probably 1s and maybe some 2s but nothing higher at this point. I won’t even talk about next week until we see what the late week system does.

  4. mazza says:

    I agree with Scott on the Monday nor’easter

  5. Scott says:

    you need to check out that monday storm

    thats the 12z GFS
    thats a blizzard right there

  6. mazza says:

    Wow you right that is a blizzard how did u get that link?

  7. Scott says:

    from weather.gov,made by NOAA. they have models for the NAM and GFS.
    now keeping that exact model run for a week is impossible.

  8. leo says:

    that is very impressive on that particular model run ! Although its eight days away it is something to look at and dream about, its kind of fun to see. That is a perfect setup for alot of snow but with waters being around 47F To the south of Boston we would mix mith rain for some time during that storm even with northeast winds. Boston north and west would be all snow. We shall see!

  9. Scott says:

    henry margusity’s facebook profile picture is a big daddy hat, which he put up 15 mins ago lol. i dont think the water temps should be an issue, the storm is far out enough to produce an all snow event.

  10. mazza says:

    Yes it is an impressive model run. I just hope it stays that way. And Scott post a new model every now and then

  11. leo says:

    it is far out Scott , but a northeast wind can still warm up the coast south of Boston even with that track this time of the year but well see.it is excitin to look at though. I would be in my glory if that would verify!

  12. Hadi says:

    Again its between the GFS and EURO!! 0Z Euro has a strom heading up the great lakes. I do not see how that’s possible with the blocking we have, but it has been very accurate. I think time will tell who wins out.

  13. leo says:

    does anybody know if the snowshower developing north of Boston is reaching the ground? It just popped out of nowhere!

  14. Scott says:

    as joe said, the models dont perform as well in blocking patterns, which is why there is alot of battles between other models. would be depressing if a storm like that manages to cut through the great lakes. we should know more by wednesday-thursday.

  15. Longshot says:

    The GFS, from what I have seen, is wrong so often that it has to be “accidentally” right one of these times.

  16. Elnoral says:

    that storm has no chance with this strong blocking pattern,it looks storm free up past the holidays

  17. Scott says:

    Elnoral…
    your comments are mostly negative towards what the rest of us are talking about. your basically coming to a conclusion with almost no evidence. none of us snow lovers want to hear “no storm coming” when there obviously will be.

    1. malcolm says:

      Yet again another example of finding fault with someone that does not agree with the majority. What’s the point of this blog if people cannot voice their opinions? Elnoral is entitled to his opinion and has every right to state it. It may not be the same as yours, but I’m sure there are those that don’t agree with you all the time either. I have watched this blog for some time and have lost all interest in being any sort of a regular for just this reason. I have a great interest in the weather and don’t always feel you and others are correct. If this isn’t a place for discussion/opinions, then it needs to be shut down.

  18. Topkatt88 says:

    This blog becomes quite unuseful when battles begin. Let’s not go there.

    And with regards to future storminess, I will repost what I wrote on the last blog just below here.

  19. Hadi says:

    Elnoral is you have something to back up what you are saying I would love to see it. Clearly there is chance of something, rian vs. snow etc….

  20. Topkatt88 says:

    I’ll keep it simple. You can’t tell where a rain/snow line, if there is one, would be on a storm potential (a potential because the storm hasn’t formed yet and is only a threat based on model data) over a week in advance, assuming the potential becomes more than half a reality.

    In the mean time, the chilly/dry pattern predicted by the ECMWF for many days is underway and will continue through the middle of this week.

  21. Hadi says:

    Topkatt what does your crystak ball tell you::))) Its been pretty darn good majority of the time!!!

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Certain: Cold/dry through midweek.
      Risk: Light snow event Friday-Saturday timeframe.
      Potential: Storm event around December 13. FAR too early to determine anything more than that, because the models, especially the GFS, perform very poorly during blocking patterns, which we are and will continue to be in thru then. Stay tuned and we’ll fine-tune it when it’s reasonable to do so.
      Beyond: Brief pattern reorganization should feature one thaw and a possible mix or rain event in SNE, snow mountains, probably not too major.
      Way out: Cold/dry pattern returns quickly after that as blocking continues.

  22. Smack says:

    Let’s face it, the battle has begun for the snow lovers vs snow haters here. For the snow lovers, there are going to be some disappointments but you will get your share. For the snow haters, too bad, but this is NE and we will see snow despite your optimism. I do hope there is snow for the holidays.! Remember this….when we get snow in Oct or Nov we tend to have a lighter than average winter snowfall. So far no snow….that may bode well for snow lovers.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I’m not fond of that battle. But, it is a blog where people are encouraged to give opinions as long as they are not offensive.

      I proudly declare myself a snow lover, but set aside wishcasting in favor of trying to get the truth out. :-)

  23. mazza says:

    All i know is that this model is looking very good for snow lovers

    1. Longshot says:

      mazza, it does look good and hope it’s true but the GFS usually belongs in the Sunday comics section.

  24. Elnoral says:

    thanks topcat your info is awesome and accurate,you preety much agree with my thinking

  25. Elnoral says:

    topkat dont you get the feeling that this might be a record low snowfall year?

  26. Hadi says:

    I agree Topkatt!! But I also find nothing wrong with people talking about the models either!!

    Smack well said!!

  27. joe shmo says:

    You guys all know the rule around here all too well. We will always be cold right up until the storm comes then we’ll be just warm enough to turn to RAIN. Then get cold again and have a “oooh just a near miss” or another turn to rain. If we get any snow before New Years I would be shocked. And while we haven’t had any snow yet, remember our big snow winters do usually have something in late November/early December to get them going. This winter it’s just not going to happen. You know that.

  28. mazza says:

    Elnoral…

    If you think that we are going to have a record low snowfall season get something to back it up then i will believed you

  29. Elnoral says:

    well said joe, it is what it is ,people need to accept it ,its not going to be a snowy season

  30. Scott says:

    climatological winter hasn’t even started yet lol, and people are already breaking out the record low snowfall shirts and hats. winter is 3 months, not just december…

  31. Hadi says:

    BTW Topkatt they did not delete my comment from yesterday::))) I am sure it was a long day

  32. crashralph says:

    Hey Guys. If HM put a picture up of his Big Daddy hat then you can foreget about the storm!!!! LOL

  33. Hadi says:

    Well for all the anti snow people you should love the 12Z EURO!! Its gives you what you want a really nice rain storm, cold and misreable!!

  34. Hadi says:

    But don’t buy into any of this at this point, it will change about 100 times before anything happens. I do not know how TV mets can ever buy into anything the models say!!

  35. philip says:

    What is really frustrating is that if this was a rainstorm anticipated for the 13th all models would have it and there would be little or no doubt whatsoever. When snow is involved it is all flip flops run to run day to day. I am hoping that around midweek we know a lot more.

  36. southshoretom says:

    probability and certainty was an interesting discussion in Worcester yesterday and how that gets conveyed to the public….

    as an example, very high probability of low total precip (< .25 in) Fri Night and Sat, and thus, even for areas that get all snow, very high probability that it will be less than a few inches.

    Early next week, I dont see how one could assign ny probability to rain vs.snow at the moment, but this far away, the public could be alerted to a moderate probability (50% ?) that this next storm will have more precip than Fri Night/Sat event.

    Interesting way of thinking, I thought, Not something I'm used to, but am willing to try it.

    1. southshoretom says:

      3rd paragraph should read early FOLLOWING week. (12th and 13th)

  37. Hadi says:

    Tom very good way of looking at things.

    Phillip I cant agree with you more. It so frustrating when that it happens. we can predict a rain storm a month in advance and it never changes!!!

  38. manowx says:

    The pattern is established that warmups and precip follow cold spells. It warms enough to make rain. The pattern was acute in the winter of 04-05 which had a Jan blizzard. I just hope this is not a repeat.

  39. manowx says:

    to be more specific, strong storms in a relaxed pattern are more apt to produce more rain than snow while weaker storms vice versa. it does appear miller b type storms will more comon this winter. January could be the snowy month.

  40. manowx says:

    January could be the snowy month.

  41. Chris says:

    i rarely post.. but heres a thought…. yes, its way too early to talk about rain/snow line but i think its still great to talk about possibilities. if the gfs does hold up [would be a total miracle], a lot of cold air could get pulled down from above..canceling out some of the warm infleunce from the ocean

  42. Elnoral says:

    Todd Gross who always hypes events says if you want snow for xmas you will have to make it. i just read his comments on his blog.

  43. Hadi says:

    Elnoral do you have the link? I would love to read what he has to say

  44. mazza says:

    Ya give us the link Elnoral.

  45. Hadi says:

    I looked up his blog and see nothing in terms of a posting, but I very well could be missing it?

  46. rainshine says:

    I joined this blog last Spring – early Summer. I don’t remember so many posts – even during severe weather.

    Do the winter blogs always have so many posts? I am looking forward to some decent snow – just before Christmas would be ideal! But, we will see.

  47. sonny says:

    “Tracking an Alberta Clipper for the end of the week.” Talk all you want, but it’s ridiculous to do it given how far off that is.

  48. Scott says:

    elnoral is just trying to cause trouble, just ignore the person. awaiting 18z GFS, wonder how much will change from the 12z

  49. Elnoral says:

    just click on my latest thoughts section than go to blogs

  50. coastal says:

    Todd Gross is just promoting his “make your on snow machine”. Too funny Elnoral!

  51. Hadi says:

    Rainshine there is a big following on the blog during winter month!

  52. rmb says:

    Hey guys, JJ,Topkatt and others, look foward to this winter season and to get the Snow falling around here. Topkatt i would have to think with this blocking pattern we could end up with a slow moving Coastal Low, I would think????

  53. Hadi says:

    Come on Elnoral you crack me up!!! I see where he talks about making snow, but I am still unable to find the link for his thoughts?

  54. Hadi says:

    Welcome back RMB its been a while

  55. rmb says:

    Hadi don’t let these people aggravate you, thanks Hadi i really miss this site anyway, and Topkatt i really would like to know if we could get a storm in this blocking pattern to stall out near is, or should i say a prlonged event???

  56. Scott says:

    18z gfs has a miss…in the garbage it goes

    1. Longshot says:

      Scott, what do you mean by a miss — not the version I see. it may be rain but not a miss. Either way the 18Z GFS is often useless. (The GFS 12Z seems to be “less bad.”)

      1. Scott says:

        out to sea, i expected that from the 18z GFS

  57. Scott says:

    heres the link for the 18z gfs

    its a monster storm. its common for the gfs to wobble with the storm track this far out.

  58. Hadi says:

    Scott don’t worry about each run, the 18Z GFS is one of the worst models runs out there. This is more than a week away!!

    RMB its not about the blocking, but more about where the blocking is and how it impact storm development. I think we need to see how the NAO is by late week as well.

    1. southshoretom says:

      Hadi, I completely agree with your second statement. In my opinion, its why the Fri-Sat clipper is going northwest of us….because the negative NAO will be weakening slightly, with high pressure temporaily shifting eastward in the north Atlantic allowing for the jet stream to back a bit in the northeast USA

  59. Hadi says:

    If we are to all use the GFS for medium range it should be the 0Z and 12Z, not the 6Z or 18Z.

    Also the EUIRO ensembles were more in line with the GFS 12Z.

  60. Scott says:

    on a good note, it didnt bring the storm inland. i would rather have no storm than a rain storm if the snow storm doesnt happen(which of course should happen:) how are the other models with their latest soultions? or they arn’t out yet.

    1. southshoretom says:

      Scott, I’m a believer that eastern Canada has to be snow covered for New England to have an opportunity to have cold and snow. This allows cold air to build in eastern Canada, which brings the temp contrasts over or south of New England. Storms love temp contrasts. So, if one of these next few storms end up being inside runners, they probably will deposit healthy snows in south central and south eastern Canada which I believe could help New England out in the long run.

  61. Scott says:

    consistency is what im after with the GFS, if every 12z run shows a nice coastal storm, then we are all set. good to hear the EURO trending east. that clipper for friday doesnt seem like much if anything

    1. rmb says:

      Scott, I would love to see that storm verify,but these models will make you go crazy!!! I would have to figure we will end up a some point with a storm, i just don’t want to see all this cold go to waste… Time will tell!!!

      1. Scott says:

        yes they do create craziness, but it makes forecasting just more fun. im not sure when this cold air will go away, as after that monday storm, we go into quite the cold spell

  62. Chris says:

    Why are the 6z/18z gfs ensembles not as reliable as the 0z/18z?

    1. Longshot says:

      Chris, I assume you meant 0z/12z. Not sure, but I have asked Topkatt and others about the GFS in general and the fact it just hasn’t verified. I think Topkatt told me no significant changes has been made to the model for quite awhile. It needs it!! The 0z and 12z are not all that great either.)

  63. Hadi says:

    Scott the EURO ensembles are, but not the 0Z euro.

    I agree its better the storm is a slgiht miss vs. agreeing with the european models that have it inland. Again I have to agree with Topkatt on the EURO, it is much better in the medium range. Even though I will give the GFS credit for showing the last storm a miss for us. The EURO in the medium range had a much closer solution to us that did not happen.

    The more of the story is who knows at this point. It could be a blizzard, rain storm, total miss::)) Options are all on the table. We will have a better handle on all of this by Wed.

  64. Hadi says:

    Chirs the data that is used for them is not as accurate. They do not initalize as well as the 6Z/18Z. If any GFS is to be used its the 0z and 12Z.

  65. Hadi says:

    I meant to say “moral”:))

  66. Hadi says:

    Again I am tired, one my last comment I intended to say the 6Z and 18Z do not work as well as the 0Z/12Z

  67. Scott says:

    it would be nice to have an edit button to edit out a typo.

  68. Hadi says:

    I just read on accuweather blog that the data for the 12Z and 18Z run was lost due to satellite problems, so I guess toss all of it out!

  69. philip says:

    I just watched Barry’s 6:30 newscast and he has snow late Friday and night about 1-2″ worth then warm up to the low 40’s for Saturday and Sunday with rain developing late Sunday. I guess this means that the 13th will be wet rather than white I’m afraid. :-(

  70. Scott says:

    yea i read that too. that GFS is one mystery, since it can still work without satellite. wouldnt the other models be affected by this?

  71. Longshot says:

    In tonight’s forecast,Barry made it look like rain for 13th. Temps in low 40’s.

  72. philip says:

    Scott, it would be nice if this website would stop “refreshing”. It is very frustrating to not only be interrupted while typing a comment, but just to read other’s comments. The old website allowed you to refresh at your own leisure.

    1. Scott says:

      oh, well at least i am not the only one having this issue.

  73. Scott says:

    yea, well the storm is a week away, i would have just put a big question mark for that day. some models earlier today were taking the storm inland, so i guess he went with those for now.

  74. Hadi says:

    I am surprised to hear Barry give a comment like that this far out. He is usually very clear about not talking about storms 1 week out.

  75. Elnoral says:

    barry just said not much snow than getting warm

  76. Elnoral says:

    it would be nice to get through the holidays with no snow,we have not had a storm free december in a while although it happens alot on average

  77. JimmyJames says:

    With all the comments on the blog wintry weather is out there in the future. I don’t see the late week storm as a big deal and if there is still a chance of snow for late week on Wednesday I will give impacts. The storm for early next week that is being talked about will probably miss us or be rain. When they show a snowlovers dream on a model run or two days and days out it never ends up that way.

  78. Dave says:

    Channel 7 and NECN weather both have snow on the edge of there sunday with tempuratures in the mid 30’s for boston. I think Barry just hates snow:(

  79. Dave says:

    Can someone give me a link to a model that is showing the 13-14th storm going through the great lakes cause I cant…. Thank you:)

  80. Elnoral says:

    barry loves snow dave its just not in the cards

  81. Scott says:

    elnoral, this is a weather blog, not the joke department. once again, making a statement without any evidence. its really getting on my nerves.

  82. Topkatt88 says:

    Cluttering the place with a battle between those who love snow and those who do not will serve no purpose here but to discourage people from reading.

    If you’re in opposite camps, agree to disagree. Please?

  83. Elnoral says:

    scott the current pattern does not favor snow what do you not understand? sorry about the nonsense topkat,topcat can you give an update on the next two weeks? thanks

  84. mazza says:

    Elnoral just because the current pattern does not favor snow means nothing the pattern will change. look at this http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/_slp_gfs_12z.htm and then when you get to the page go to 192 with the numbers at the top of the page

  85. Elnoral says:

    it means no snow mazza,we might have to start calling you scott lol

  86. Scott says:

    i have a feeling that clipper system on friday will play a significant role in the storm for monday, could it possibly act as a block and cause the storm on monday to slow down? and it will also affect the storm path as well. we are in a cold pattern for the next few weeks, i don’t see why snow can’t happen

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      If that Friday/Saturday system has any impact on the pattern it would be to temporarily shift or break down the block, allowing a system around December 13 to possibly run inside and become a rain event for eastern New England.

      I’m not committed to this idea, it being too far in the future. But I will say that the ECMWF has been hinting at this scenario for the last several runs, and this model outperforms the GFS like a 1 on 1 basketball game between Shaq and one of the munchkins from the Wizard of Oz.

  87. mazza says:

    Ahhahahaha ok im done talking we will see what happens on Monday one thing WBZ is the olny news station that does not have snow next Sunday just saying

  88. Topkatt88 says:

    In terms of the next 2 weeks, to the best of my ability, I posted earlier. I will repost it here:

    Certain: Cold/dry through midweek.
    Risk: Light snow event Friday-Saturday timeframe.
    Potential: Storm event around December 13. FAR too early to determine anything more than that, because the models, especially the GFS, perform very poorly during blocking patterns, which we are and will continue to be in thru then. Stay tuned and we’ll fine-tune it when it’s reasonable to do so.
    Beyond: Brief pattern reorganization should feature one thaw and a possible mix or rain event in SNE, snow mountains, probably not too major.
    Way out: Cold/dry pattern returns quickly after that as blocking continues.

  89. mazza says:

    Took the words right out of my mouth Scott

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      A cold pattern does not mean a snowy one.

      2 great examples follow:

      February 1979, one of the coldest months of the 1970s, yet most storms were in the form of rain in the Boston area. All the cold was in between the storms.

      December 1989, the coldest December on record, but very little snow thanks to much below normal precipitation.

      You have to look at all aspects that characterize a pattern, not just one or even two. What drives a weather pattern is most important in determining the kind of weather that is most likely to occur during specific events.

  90. philip says:

    I am very interested to see Barry’s thoughts on his evening blog regarding that 13th storm.

  91. Scott says:

    he blogged, said at the moment, he thinks its going to be a wet one. but he did note its a week away, so its basiclly taking a leap of faith and going with one solution.

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