Not As Warm…But Still Nice

by WBZ Meteorologist Joe Joyce

Another frosty morning in the suburbs of Boston. Another morning where the hills are warmer than the valleys with a morning inversion in place. Just like yesterday, warmer air aloft will allow a rapid warm up into the midday with temperatures quickly climbing into the 50’s this afternoon with Sunny to Partly Sunny skies.

Obviously, today will not be as warm as the balmy weather yesterday. Highs climbed to 65-70 through the Merrimack Valley and Southern New Hampshire. A backdoor front has pushed through and a cooler more seasonal airmass has followed in behind it. Our water temperatures are near 50 degrees, so a NE wind off the water will help to keep the coast in the Lwr 50’s while inland there will be a better chance to climb to near 55 this afternoon.

High clouds are streaming through this morning, but thicker stratocumulus clouds will back into New England off the water by the mid-late afternoon. These clouds will begin to thicken this evening with the chance of drizzle and fog starting to form by dawn with lows holding steady in the 40’s

Our backdoor cold front will try to move north as a warm front tomorrow. Pockets of drizzle and mist can be expected for the morning commute tomorrow with the warm front stalled right over us.  Cool onshore winds out of the SE will help to keep the clouds locked in for much of the day…but the clouds may begin to break late for a few sunny breaks late in the day.  a cold front will be pushing through New England at that time. SW winds aloft up the eastern seasboard will help to slow the front which will stall just off the coast.

We continue to track our next wave of rain which will be coming out of the Gulf and be directed right up the eastern seaboard. The low will track right up through the Appalachian Mountains and through New England Wednesday. The best chance of rain will be Tuesday Night and Wednesday morning…with the potential for .50-1.5″ of rain to fall by Wednesday afternoon.

The disturbance/clipper coming out of Canada we were tracking for Thursday does not look nearly as pronounced this morning…as it did yesterday at this time.  In fact it looks like a simple frontal passage which will come with a few clouds and cooler air to end out the week with a reinforcement of NW winds which will help to keep temps in the 40s to end the week. The trend towards the cool will likely continue for a while as we start the transition towards the cooler season. Temperature contrasts in this transition will likely allow for an active pattern heading towards Thanksgiving and beyond.

  • WeatherWizard

    Great job Joe! I enjoy watching your forecasts on ch 4 and reading your blogs.
    My recipe for a Nor’easter 2011

    You want a snowy winter in Greater Boston area? You want some big snowstorms in 2010-2011? You have to place the HIGHS over Canada and the LOWS over the Oceans! High Pressure over Central and Eastern Canada tap the Arctic Cold and transport that cold air into the Central and Eastern USA.

    This Cold air allows for a storm to form out of the GULF due to suppressing the JET STREAM to the south. That southern track allows the JET and LOW to have a feeding frenzy of moisture over the GULF and Atlantic! Add two parts moisture and one part Arctic Air and you have a recipe for a Nor’easter.
    The only other ingredient we need is the exact track. That exact track is all about cooking the nor’easter at the right temperature. Cook it to warm and it hugs the coast and the warm air makes the snowstorm a mixed storm or even rain. Under cook the storm and it gets too cold to enjoy! If it’s undercooked you slip the storm out to sea and you never can enjoy your nor’easter.
    The NAO will shift back and forth in a given winter and when the NAO goes Negative the chances increase for a Nor’easter. The typical NAO swing lasts about two weeks so we tend to go into ½ month patterns for snow or no snow.
    What do you look for in the NAO pattern? You don’t want it to go too negative…that means too much cold air and the storm track slips too far south.. If it goes too positive the jet heads well north into Canada and we’ll be shedding the coats. A good chance of a nor’easter is when the NAO is going from slightly positive to negative. Somewhere in there you have the JET STREAM set-up along the East Coast.
    It should be an interesting 2010-2011. Will be have any Nor’easters this winter? Hopefully Harvey Leonard will shed some light on this when he gives his winter forecast Monday @ 6:00 and Barry Burbank will give his prediction during the Thanksgiving weekend.

  • firefly

    “…Thursday does not look nearly as pronounced this morning…as it did yesterday at this time.” Gee, imagine my surprise. Just wishful thinking on your part.

  • Hadi

    Firely its only mid Nov, don’t worry you will get plenty of snow at your house this year::)) as I know you will be so happy to see it!!

  • JimmyJames

    My winter forecast will be posted on the blog tomorrow.

  • Hadi

    JJ please post it before Harvey gives his take otherwise people will be critical of what you have to say::)) People love to be critics when we talk about winter

  • Ben Lovell

    Hello Everyone:
    Yes, it will be an interesting 2010-2011 Winter Season! I am looking forward to hear from Harvey and Barry. :-) It will be interesting to see what happens from Thanksgiving and beyond. In my opinion, i don’t think it will be similar to last year where we had warm storms, with high winds/rain. this year would be more of a snowy, nor’easter type of storm.

    Wait and see.

  • crashralph

    Joe nice write up. Colder times are indeed ahead of us. Also my thinking is that this year will yield more Miller B type systems. Time will tell like always!!!!!

  • JimmyJames

    Hadi I plan on posting sometime tomorrow morning. I hope the page does not refresh so I could get in what I need to say otherwise its going to be very brief.

  • manowx

    Well, the winter could have more snow than the last but thart’s not saying much because last was several inches short of the average. If you want more snow in Boston it would behoove the populace to reduce wood burning (soot) and carbon dioxide because there is no strong signal for cold. There are many signals towards mild such as a retrograding cyclone, a mild ocean, and frequent temperature inversions. Moreover a got a neck burn yesterday from just two minutes standing in the sun!!! The whales know what I mean! Where have all the old-fashioned winters gone?

  • manowx

    Ozone depletion might offer a short duration of arctic air but otherwise I expect a stratified condition across the US

  • manowx

    In terms of cold and snow, this winter will pale in comparison to 95-96. That sun is hotter than it’s been in a while.

    I noticed there’s a snow contest; rules subject to change. One rule that should be changed immediately is the deadline. Why would a snow contest deadline be after one full month of winter. The deadline should Nov 30. It’s ludicrous. I’m not inclined to enter.

  • manowx

    Yo, Wizard, stop patronizing Joe Joyce. You must be conceited if you think he appreciates that. He is a man who poo-poos anthropogenic influence on climate!

  • Topkatt88

    Winter 2010-2011 in Boston…

    DECEMBER: Temp – below normal. Precip – below normal. Snow – near normal. Frequent cold spells and small clipper-type events. Northern jet stream dominates, southern stream very quiet.

    JANUARY: Temp – near normal. Precip – below normal. Snow – below normal. Blocking pattern puts us in a dry spell with a cold start to the month. With time the block breaks down and the southern stream activates. If no phasing, lighter snow/mix events here, phasing of the jets will cause a couple messier storms with snow to mix/rain.

    FEBRUARY: Temp – near to above normal. Precip – near normal. Snow – below normal. Brief cold interludes between more frequent southern stream systems that will track too far north to produce alot of snow, but more mix to rain events. If we get a strong block there may be one significant snow event for Boston.

    MARCH: Temp – near to below normal. Precip – above normal. Snow – above normal. The setup will finally feature phasing of storms with cold air available and cold ocean water, keeping systems more snow/mix in the Boston area. If there is a blockbuster this winter, it may be in early March (but don’t bet money on it).

    SUMMARY FOR THE 4 MONTHS: Temp – near to below normal. Precip – near to below normal. Snow – below normal (37 inches).

    • Jerry Denning

      Topkatt:88: After reading your winter prediction it is exactly what I was expecting,but definitely not happy. How much snow did we get last year. I live in Medford and I remember the Mid Atlantic states got clobbered and we did not. The little boy in me loves lots of snow.

      Thank you for your insight

      • Topkatt88

        You’re welcome Jerry. My forecast, like many, is based on my thoughts taking into account the La Nina status of ENSO, a solar cycle that is starting its upswing, recent volcanic activity, as well as anticipating trends and expectations of NAO, QBO, AO, PNA, PDO, and a few other indicies. Won’t bother getting into technical aspects of each of these. I’ll leave that to the WBZ mets.

    • southshoretom

      good stuff Topkatt. I could live with this outcome, with a big snowfall (maybe) in March. It melts off the streets quickly in March and that first day the strong March sun shines on a fresh snowcover always provides a few good pictures.

      • Topkatt88

        As always we shall see how it works out. I’m sure other people’s outlooks will vary, and it will be fun as always to see who is “closest”. Any forecast, even those made with much thought and analysis, can bust, just to remind us how unpredictable nature can be. Yet we never really want to stop trying, and we shouldn’t stop. Part of understanding the world come from anticipating its behavior and comparing the actual outcome to your own guesses.

  • Mark

    You know, that is nice news :)

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