Sunny & Mild…Before The Clouds/Rain

by WBZ Meteorologist Joe Joyce

What a day out there! After a frosty start in many areas of central and northern New England temps are starting to rise. This morning Mount Washington  6,288 ft in elevation was the warmest spot in Northern New England at 41 degrees, while many were starting with temps in the 20’s! The Worcester airport had a low of 47 degrees with Norwood down to 25 degrees at dawn this morning. What an awesome inversion! An inversion is simply an increase of temperature with height. It is also a sign of stability in the atmosphere…as the warm air aloft slows the air from rising any further up to form clouds. You will notice very little cloud development today thanks to this stable environment and lack of any available moisture.

With the warmer air aloft and temps now warming at the surface, after a frosty start, I expect temps to quickly warm into the 50’s and then into the 60’s inland today. Normal high is 53. We will be close to 10 degrees above normal today. An upper level ridge is in place over the entire eastern seaboard which is providing stellar fall weather to start the weekend. Meanwhile there is a storm center plowing through the northern Plains and Great Lakes which is providing a mix of rain and heavy snow to the Twin Cities in Minneapolis.

A cold front draped across the Canadian border will push off our coast tonight with a cooler airmass to follow in for Sunday. The front will push away the warmth and bring in a more seasonal airmass for this time of year. Expect low clouds to back in off the water tomorrow with NE winds. Temps will be much cooler in the 40’s and Lwr 50’s with mostly cloudy skies developing.

A cold front will approach Monday which may trigger a brief shower or sprinkle through Monday Night. SW upper level winds will continue to direct warmer air aloft which will be overriding a cooler east winds at the surface helping to keep a deck of clouds in place. The SW flow aloft will stall the front over New England with a wave of low pressure which will track through New England for a period of rain Tuesday Night and Wednesday morning.

Behind this disturbance we will begin to track the first outbreak of cold air into the US this early season. The cold charge will help to push a wave of energy from Canada south of the Lakes to just south of New England. This will be in the form a clipper-like storm which will likely start off wet Thursday in the form of showers, but a turn to snow is possible on the back side of this low with the cold air being drawn in. The best chance of snow Thursday afternoon will remain the higher elevations…but a wintry mix all the way to the coast is possible with this Thursday Clipper which will need to be watched….Plenty of cool to follow in the wake of this low with air being discharged out of Canada with highs mostly in the Lwr -mid 40’s to end the week. Enjoy the warmth while it’s out there!

  • Hadi

    Thanks Joe. Yes that clipper is to be watched for next week. Its great to be back into winter and keeping an eye on what might be coming. I

  • JimmyJames

    Its a good thing the leaves have been raked at my place with threat of wintry weather late next week. I am not excited about that yet since its long way off but after this hot summer we had I am ready for the snow. Snowfall impacts will be given 48-72 hours prior to a storm just like the thunderstorm impacts were.

  • leo

    looking forward to the end of next week

  • leo

    1-3 boston area and 3-6 outside if 128. “just kidding”

  • rainshine

    Looking forward to your snowfall impacts this winter, JimmyJames. Actually I am looking forward to some snow nxt. wk. I miss the long summer days but the sunny fall days like today have been great. And I admit I am kind of excited to see some snow.(By nxt. March I probably will be looking forward to the spring and summer!)

  • JimmyJames

    Thanks Rainshine and like I said a few weeks ago the impact scale for snowfall is a work in progress and I will do my best and hope it works like the thunderstorm impact scale did. Hopefully someone on the blog will do an impact scale for the commutes during winter storms. My impacts for snow will be based on the amounts.

  • firefly

    Will not see snow locally next week. Let the hype begin though.

  • philip

    I finally got “some” raking done today but it is far from over. There are still a lot of leaves still on the trees in my area…even still “green” ones. I just wish it wouldn’t rain so often. For next week it will rain on the 2 days that I have off. I willl probably be still raking even beyond Thanksgiving. The leaves are slow to “leave” this year…lol.

  • Longshot

    philip, I agree — I told the guy who cleans my gutters to come in Dec.

  • Topkatt88

    Leaves are 90% down here, right on schedule this year.

    November temperature in Boston will end up slightly below normal thanks to a chilly start and what will be a chilly/dry finish after a slightly milder interlude. Model teleconnections support this idea at this time.

    Splendid day today to get the rest of the raking done. Tomorrow I will be putting my Christmas lights on the bushes (however they do NOT go on until December 1). Just taking advantage of decent weather to get it set up. :-)

    Have a great rest of the weekend everyone!

  • philip

    Today’s CPC outlook is calling for slightly below normal temps coast-to-coast through Thanksgiving. Even the southern tier states are going to be right at normal. As I always say, “fwiw”.

  • JimmyJames

    Philip I just looked at the CPC outlooks a little while ago. Colder air will invade the northern tier but to me how far south and east will it penitrate. The late week storm looks like rain but the higher elevations may get some white stuff out of that. This will change between now and then but that is my early call.

  • Topkatt88

    Wednesday: Coastal hugger or slightly-inside runner. A rain event, fast-moving, with maybe some high mountain snow early & late in the precip.

    Thursday night/early Friday: A mostly non-event as we fall into the shadow between a storm advancing out of the Great Lakes & Midwest and redeveloping too far offshore to do much other than become a Canadian Maritimes bomb and draw down some cold air Friday, only to be reinforced by another eastward-moving weaker storm later in the weekend.

    This is the beginning of the transitional pattern which will evolve into the northern stream-dominated cold/dry pattern of later November & December.

  • Hadi

    Thanks for the info Topkatt! I guess the snow lovers out there will not like your prediction for late Nov/early Dec.

    • Topkatt88

      It depends. I’ve always been a snow lover and over time I have learned to really like when a pattern delivers lots of cold air and frequent but mostly light snow events. You get the look of the snow without the major shovelouts. Kind of the best of both worlds. ;-)

  • Hadi

    True…Now that my little boy just started to walk I am excited to get him out in the snow to play.

  • philip

    Topkatt, I still believe that December will get winter off to a snowy start and it will happen by mid-December at the latest.

  • manowx

    This pattern reminds me a little of 01-02. Basically a non-winter. No full amplitude troughs and no widespread cold. This will essentially be a winter north of Boston and points north of Boston’s latitude. What a joke again! It’s overdue that we reduce ghg emission.

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