Keller @ Large: How Patrick Beat Baker

By Jon Keller, WBZ-TV

BOSTON (CBS) – The first (and only?) post-election poll is out, courtesy of the MassINC polling group, and it’s an eye opener. Among the highlights (or lowlights, if you were for Charlie Baker):

* Baker won the independent vote, but only by 14 percentage point, well below the margin he needed;

* For those insisting that Tim Cahill proved to be a non-factor, please explain how that can be when the poll shows he pulled 12% of independents;

* The gender gap was huge, with Deval Patrick running up a 24% lead among women.  And as the MassINC analysts note, women were far more positive than men about the state’s direction, with 60% telling the pollsters we’re heading in the right direction. No wonder; unemployment has hit men harder than women. And no wonder women rejected Baker’s dire warnings of the urgent need for change;

* And get this – 54% of Patrick voters say they had made up their minds before Labor Day, raising the possibility that most of what happened after that – the debates, the TV ads, Loscocco-gate, the bad jobless figures, etc. – was mere background noise.


More from Jon Keller
  • Steve Stein

    This poll doesn’t give enough information to say one way or another, but the Suffolk poll had the “second choice” of Cahill voters breaking 44-42 in favor of Patrick. Given that his vote would have split evenly, Cahill was indeed a non-factor, except for the fact he denied Patrick an outright majority of the vote.

    You’re surprised that 57% of Patrick voters decided before Labor Day? For heaven’s sake why? This number is fewer than the number of registered Democrats who voted for him, and I’d guess registered Democrats who were Patrick supporters knew a year ago they were going to vte for him. I’d guess half of registered Democrats have already made up their mind to vote for Obama 2 years from now.

  • Just sayin'

    . patrick did not win the majority vote. If you add the percentages of tim,, charlie and jill’s votes it is higher then the percentage patrick got. So patrick really didn’t win. How come no one is making that point.

    • Steve Stein

      Huh. I just sort of made it above. But make no mistake, Patrick did win. Didn’t Bush win in 2000?

  • Steve Stein

    Here is a fascinating look at the enthusiasm gap, by Nate Silver. His conclusion – the enthusiasm gap was biggest in the swing states. Not surprising – among people who turned out for this election, 45% were McCain voters, 45% were Obama voters, 10% didn’t vote in 2008.

  • mikey

    Obama’s upcoming trip to Mumbai, India is expected to cost ” we the people ” 200 million per day. How could anyone contemplate voting for Obama 2 years from now?

    • Oh please

      That is unverifiable information coming from an unknown source in India. Only idiots like Graham and Severin believe it’s even remotely true.

  • mikey

    Also, this site appears to be suffering from Tourette’s Syndrome.

  • hackwannabe

    Well you voted for him, now you got him. Hold on to your wallets! Just wait until the income tax rates rise.

  • emom

    Or major hic-cups….. this guy won by either dumb luck or lack of stupid voters,,,, go figure dumb people do dumb things…. will the people wake from their comotose night mare and get with the world of reality,,, NAH I SERIOUSLY DOUBT IT,,, VOTE ON FOOLS,, VOTE ON

    • beaches

      emom I’m with you on this one!

  • taxedout

    Union voters, family and friends of union and pols, stupid voters, wellfare recipeints, Obama’s auntie, …It’s over I’m doing my best to get a state or federal job…If you can’t beat them, well you know!!!

  • Oh please don't go Mr. President

    White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, Nov. 4: ” Well, we have set the record straight with you guys. I’m not going to to go into detail how much it costs to protect the president. Costs are comparible to when President Clinton and when President Bush traveled abroad ( WELL THAT EXPLAINS IT ).

  • Mumbai Here We Come !!

    What a total waste of millions at this time. I’m sure that the millions of unemployed people in this country are just thrilled that Obama and his entourage are making this trip.


    wants to go too !

  • Dave65

    I’m curious why Patrick waited until after the election to say he wouldn’t be seeking re-election. He has no reason to do anything in the upcoming four years. Just keep those tax increases coming and then he’s outta here. And why does did my computer work fast on this site before it was improved. Now it takes forever to click from area to area? Anyone else notice how slow this site is?

    • Steve Stein

      This page has a lot more “stuff” than the old one – graphics, videos, plugins – so it’s a lot bigger than the old page. Not surprised it’s slower. It’s not painfully slow for me, though.

  • taxedout

    Just wait until our Gov gets back from his California vacation, you’ll see some changes being made, most of the women in Mass say we are going in the riight direction. wonder how many staties went to California with him????

  • taxedout

    natural gas going Up, Gasoline going Up, Man I sure could have used that sales tax cut, but as long as we are going in the right direction, i have no problem!!!

  • taxedout

    Tuitions going up, Man I sure could have used that sales tax cut, but as long as we are going in the right direction, I have no problem!!!

  • taxedout

    Tyco in Lowell moving to NH, and 100 jobs Gone!!! I’m sure that the Gov and legislature will be working on getting us back to work, this is just a hick up. Oh Evergreen solar at Devens, 900 jobs may move to Chiina, but, Sure the Gov will prevent that!!!! Like the women who voted for him, we are moving in the right diirection. You Go Gov!!!!

  • Golf Irons on Sale

    My partner and I absolutely love your blog and find the majority of your post’s to be just what I’m looking for. Would you offer guest writers to write content for you personally? I wouldn’t mind writing a post or elaborating on most of the subjects you write concerning here. Again, awesome weblog!

blog comments powered by Disqus
Taz Show
Download Weather App

Listen Live