Premature Cold...
Welcome to a new month...November...one of my least favorite months of the year. Usually a gray and raw month the outlook for the first few days are promising with lots of sun, add to that some lingering rusty foliage and I kind of like it! I'm even willing to overlook the nearly 10 degree below normal temps...I see it now as refreshingly crisp!
With high pressure building in from the Lakes and not expected to crest over until later Wednesday we get to enjoy two more essentially cloud free days. The air, however, will remain unseasonably cold with daytime highs in the upper 40s and overnight lows mostly in the 20s!
At the moment the northern and southern streams are running separate but later in the week that will change. The northern will amplify late Wednesday as a shortwave currently located in the North Pacific will dive down the backside of the trough in the northern tier and dig it into the Deep South where low pressure and ample Gulf of Mexico moisture is located. This will produce a decent coastal storm capable of releasing lots of rain on Thursday into early Friday. There will be cold enough air for frozen precip located just to our west but with a current track expected to run along the coast the cold will not be able to work this far east and a ribbon of warm air will sneak up into most of Central and Eastern Mass. It will likely be a different story for the higher terrain and prehaps even some of the lower elevations in Western and Northern New England.
The storm will shift offshore on Friday but the baroclinic zone won't get very far as the trough continues amplifying and looks to cut-off over the Northeast spawning new surface low cyclogenesis offshore which could potentially brush us over the weekend. If we can get some moisture thrown back our way, even colder air will be in place, even in Eastern New England, and some flurries or snow showers will be possible.
